Quick Reaction: North Texas 36 South Florida 63

An absolute disappointment

For a beautiful brief moment, North Texas led 21-14. The defense forced a USF stop, and the punt was going to set up NT for a chance to get a two-score lead before the half.

In a flash, NT was down three scores. How? Why? What? Well it all happened. USF scored on 3rd and goal from the 5 with 5 seconds left in the half. They got the ball after a muffed punt dropped into their lap. They took the second half kickoff down the field, and then scored again. Drew Mestemaker, a steady hand for five straight games, threw his third interception. USF scores again. Then a fumble on a little crosser (after two drops) and USF scored again. UNT traded a long (Coleman) TD for a USF long TD.

By then the third quarter was closing and NT was still down two scores. We wrote in the game preview that whichever team was luckier would get a blowout win. It looked early like that was NT, getting the 3 turnovers in the first quarter, but it eventually was clearly South Florida. Five North Texas turnovers through three quarters were what did them in.

Now all that said, USF kicked some ass from the third quarter to the close of the game.

Yes, 352 yards in the second half and 174 on the ground at 6.2 yards per pop. Skyler Cassity has made the defense better, but there is still a long way to go to get to good, apparently. The losses of Valaia and Scott didn’t help, of course, but we make no excuses here. The tempo, the physicality, and the execution were superior on the visitor’s side.

South Florida ran the ball down UNT’s throat.

Some observations:

1. North Texas’ Defense Got The Turnovers They Wanted/Needed But Didn’t Take Advantage.

UNT jumped all over Washington State on the strength of early turnovers and points-off them. In this one there were three USF turnovers in the first quarter. That’s blowout-fuel normally, but UNT turned two fumbles and an interception into only 7-points. UNT had a 3-and-out, and an interception of their own (we’ll get to Drew’s play soon).

USF avoided a huge hole, and NT lost the chance to force the opponent into one-dimensional football.

Credit to USF’s defense, which saved the offense. Still, UNT had a 21-14 lead and then forced a punt near the end of the first half. Then disaster struck.

2. Turnovers Were The Key

Obvious, yes. Of course turnovers change the game, but leaving aside the interceptions, the muffed punt was terrible. It is one thing to throw a pick — those usually don’t result in immediate scores. It is quite another to muff a punt - those usually do result in scores.

In this case, the North Texas could have 1) run the clock out and preserved the lead. 2) Tried to keep some momentum and steal another score — a FG or a TD.

The absolute worst case scenario was what happened. USF got a score (kudos for being aggressive with 5s on the clock) and were able to double-dip. They were to receive first in the second half.

From then, they immediately flipped a 7-point deficit to a 7-point lead.

After that? North Texas had two drives, seven plays, thirteen yards, and two turnovers. Drew Mestemaker threw another interception (third) with a guy in his face and the ball sailed on him. Andre Ware talked about how low Mestemaker holds the ball and the dangers of that mechanic when rushed. The second was a Simeon Evans fumble after a short-catch. USF returned the ball for six. The route was on. 42-21 game when it was 21-21 at half.

3. North Texas Blew An Opportunity To Grow The Program … But It Isn’t Hopeless

This wasn’t the Cal game all over. This was a good team exerting themselves, and turnovers turning a close game into a blowout. MGN wrote and podcasted that games between evenly matched teams usually result in blowouts. A little luck one way or another and suddenly the gap is too big to overcome. There is no inherent advantage to lean on, and the trailing team presses — and then you have mistakes.

Tonight, if you disagree with the notion that these are evenly matched teams I won’t blame you. It certainly didn’t look like UNT was ready to defend much of anything in that second half. It is fair to wonder if any UNT lead was going to be safe with the way USF was moving that football there in the third quarter.

A comeback was possible, but USF decided to fully kick UNT’s ass. So it goes.

Now, is the season over? Is the American title race over? Is the top-25 ranking possibility over?

Well, let’s get into it:

The Season, and American Race Is Not Over

UNT has a soft schedule. We knew that coming in. We talked about how UNT could pull off the Army of 2024, and get into the title game and steal a trophy, in a manner of speaking. Memphis was the most talented team last year but didn’t win in part because of how tough their schedule was (and how they slipped up).

As of now, UNT is behind USF, and Memphis in the standings. The Bulls look like world-beaters right now so even if you pencil them in for the title game appearance you have to think they have to play someone, right? (This is sarcasm). It is possible for NT to get into the title game and get a rematch vs USF.

Let me pause here and say that right now that doesn’t sound fun at all. In 2017, UNT was blown out at FAU 69-31, and then went to Boca Raton again for the title game and was killed again. Un-fun.

Okay, we wrote before the game that nothing is over. That remains true. There is plenty to play for no matter what. Giving up here is anti-competitive. The game is an hour-long competition, but the season is a 12-game-long one. This was game six. There are six more to play, folks. I want to support a program that will not give up. They want a fanbase that doesn’t, either.

USF plays Memphis and Navy. If you are asking for some rooting scenarios, you want lots of teams to have 2-losses, or for Navy to beat Memphis and UNT to beat Navy. Basically we are aiming for 2nd. USF would need two losses to drop below NT as they now own the head-to-head tiebreaker, and whoever beats USF in one game is likely not losing some other time.

So the theoretical final standings would look like this:

• USF 8-0 or somesuch*

• UNT 7-1*

• Memphis 7-1

* title game participants.

That’s the ideal scenario, as for prestige purposes, we want the American champion to be as unblemished as possible. Any other scenario requires USF to lose twice, and then it gets all muddy and UNT would have gotten beat down at home by a two-loss team …

I don’t like it.

So, root for USF to go undefeated, and then root against Memphis in some other game. And of course root for UNT to win out. That’s very possible, even if it won’t be easy. I mean, it took OT vs Army, folks.

The Top 25 is Over (for now).

If UNT was going to be ranked, it was after a win over USF. Beyond that — and especially after this loss — it ain’t happening. The hype was there, the attention was given, and the big moment was lost. It is unfortunate, but that wasn’t the goal. UNT cannot directly control whether it is ranked.

There is some path where NT just looks super amazing the rest of the way and gets revenge on USF in a title game blowout where they just mop the floor and suddenly voters are like “wow, that was impressive, here is my vote at #25”.

That is not likely.

The Fans Are Gutted

UNT asked people to show up and pay attention and they lost. They also did so in blowout fashion. It is hard to get attention when you give up 63 points, and 172 yards rushing in the second half, and blow a 21-14 lead. Lots of people will be harder to win over, and when they mutter “same old North Texas” it will be difficult to prove to them that This Time It Is Different. Be prepared for that, admin.

4. A Reminder That This Is A Transitionary Year

I know.

Don’t yell at me.

I know you are going to point to the portal and to other programs, and maybe to Cignetti and so-and-so but I will say again that this is a transitionary year.

Eric Morris does not have a big money QB. He has a walk-on QB that he found, and is making some magic with. He also had to fire his DC (his own fault, sure) and get a low-paid guy to come in and fix things, with no budget and no history of defense to draw upon.

This year was about proving winning could happen with the same powerful offense and an average (at least!) defense. So far, so good.

Yes — USF kicked ass and made the defense look like paper cut outs.

Yes — the 63 points are ridiculous and it seems no progress has been made.

Yes — we don’t like it.

But ALSO — the defense got three turnovers early. The defense forced a punt up 21-14. There is progress here, even if this game was not the best display.

We can see that the program still needs developing. The defensive line needs a stud and depth. The linebacking group needs depth. The secondary needs depth. The offense could stand a playmaking WR, and the line needs a little bolstering.

Now, whether all that is possible? Well that’s the trick. It is much easier to convince cash-holding donors that you are just a couple of investments away at 5-1 than at 1-5. So there’s that. This season is about getting some wins under the belt, with a young offense, and a rebuilt defense.

For all the sting that this one has done to our pride, our enthusiasm, and our hope, remember that there is still everything to play for.

GMG