A Year's Retrospective and Some Speculation

We appreciate the year, and get into hypotheticals to get it all out of our system

Head football coach Eric Morris was on the hot seat with fans last year around this time. People on the message board and on social media were calling for big changes. They were tired of the losing, but were critical of the play calling, 4th down calls, and well the defense.

He fixed those things by improving the offensive line, refreshing the running back room, and elevating his freshman QB to the top job. Oh, and he fired the defensive coordinator and hired Skyler Cassity. The changes weren’t heralded too much. Most season previews had North Texas somewhere in the middle of the pack. The defense, the QB, the lack of proven playmakers were glaring questions and no one thought those would improve quickly enough to outlast the top of the American conference.

In the MGN preview, we were bullish (schedule, good offense, low-bar for defense) on the season and predicted 9 wins. Well, UNT is at 9 wins right now, and has a chance to add at least one more game to that. Not only North Texas in line for the American Conference Championship game, but they are favored to host the thing! Add to that the bowl game, and incredibly, the College Football Playoff is a real possibility.

North Texas was scheduled for 12 games, but has a chance to play at least two more. The squad is ranked (22) for the first time in 66 years.

There are good vibes in Denton.

With success, there are vultures. We cannot be holier-than-though about this. North Texas’ staff is scouring the other teams for diamonds and getting ready for the transfer portal. More resource-rich programs are looking at North Texas’ success and adjusting their budgets accordingly. Drew Mestemaker, and Caleb Hawkins are prime candidates to transfer. A relatively new addition to the rumors is head coach Eric Morris. What a whirlwind year for the head coach. Literally last year plus one day North Texas fired Matt Caponi.

All told, Matt Caponi presided over the worst ranked defense in the nation in 2023 by yards allowed per game (461.7). That team was 125/133 in yards per play (6.53). North Texas was routinely allowing squads to get better than their average. California obliterated the defense for 600+ yards and demoralized the fan base in the first game. They followed that up by allowing a terrible FIU squad to walk up and down the field the next week. This season was about getting better through personnel, and while there were signs of improvement it was not enough. When NT needed to get stops they could sometimes step up, but the aggregate showed a youthful squad being confused and out-schemed, out-muscled and out-ran. A very mediocre UTSA squad put up 681 yards and 48 points. The 3-high got pressure sometimes but overall UTSA’s QB McCown never looked uncomfortable. The coverage changes were not confusing to the QB, and he picked apart the defense easily.

Is it all Caponi’s fault? No, but it was his responsibility. He was the highest paid G5 assistant and produced the worst results. This year NT “improved” to 126 in YPG (458.1) and 112th (6.22) in yards per play. An improvement? Yes. A significant one that brings wins? No.

Skyler Cassity has his first defense allowing just 375.8 yards per game (77th) which is an improvement of 59 places over 2023, and 51 places over 2024. That’s improvement. NT is at 5.4 yards per play allowed, which is good for 56th — an improvement of 51 places over last year.

In this space, we warned that you only get one firing of a coordinator before everyone starts looking at you. Morris made his move after two seasons of terrible defensive football and made a hire. That has paid off tremendously. Seriously, if UNT lost to Rice, and Temple in these next two games it still would be a successful staff change.

North Texas left the UTSA game having allowed 681 yards and 48 points, and sat at 5-5. The loss was the fourth straight, and the squad would need a win to earn bowl eligibility. They would split the final two games, and then lose to Texas State in the bowl game.¹

But Morris didn’t just hire Cassity. He hired him away from Sam Houston State — a young program that finished 9-3 in the regular season and would beat Georgia Southern to complete a 10-win season.

North Texas hasn’t had an on-field 10-win season in program history.² A coaching change, a slight change in recruiting philosophy — away from high schoolers, and heavy on the upper-classmen — and North Texas has had the greatest season through ten games in program history. We have to keep qualifying it because it could end terribly, or differently, or disappointingly, and lots of other ways. The start is tremendous, and the weak schedule means North Texas should win 11 games before the postseason begins.

I don’t say should to be glib or light about the opponent. The facts are that North Texas is a double-digit favorite for a second straight week and should also be heavily favored at home in the season finale as well. Eleven is real.

The Vultures Are Circling

Eric Morris is rumored to be a candidate at Oklahoma State and also Arkansas State. He’s stated his lifelong dream was to coach in Texas at the FBS level. I’m sure roughly $6 Million is enough to convince him to make the change to Sillwater, Oklahoma. Or what about the same number for Arkansas?

Being an SEC head coach — the most prestigious in the nation — or a Big 12 coach — the conference he played in at Texas Tech — has its appeals. The salary is not even the biggest draw. It is the budget for everything else. Team facilities are top notch. The stadium is bigger and better. The NIL budget is huge. The staff budget is larger.

But they all come with even greater expectations and even more pressure. These football coaches are all a little crazy — else they wouldn’t be doing such a silly job — and want to compete at the highest levels. There are only 136 of these jobs in the country. Only a small percentage have a real year-over-year chance at competing seriously for a national championship, however.

A look at Morris’ resume and you are not super impressed, I don’t imagine. The real appeal is the potential. Morris has a reputation as a QB whisperer, finding diamonds in the rough and turning them into incredible productive players. Mahomes, Ward, and now Mestemaker. The thinking is that it is likely a Coach/QB package, as Drew Mestemaker likely makes the move wherever his head coach goes. You can probably add Caleb Hawkins as a potential signing as well. Why not, right?

Maybe you’re a Okie State booster and see if you can’t get the defensive coordinator as well? Cassity doesn’t have too many deep ties to Denton, so he probably jumps at the chance to continue his turnover-producing magic at a Big 12 school with some real dangerous athletes.

For North Texas, a situation that was always a possibility becomes a pressing decision. The Board of Regents has already signed off on an extension but the math doesn’t make sense to get Morris to $6 million. The highest paid American coaches are in the $2.5 million range.

Even with the money from a possible CFP appearance — reportedly $4 million for an appearance in the first round — and the subsequent boost in interest in the program, the money just doesn’t reach the lowest levels of the P5. It doesn’t even reach the investments being made at USF right now.

Where does Jared Mosely turn? Football is a much bigger draw than hoops, and even with North Texas being an NIT staple, the donor investment never translated to enough money to hire a name. Daniyal Robinson did well at Cleveland State but he wasn’t a big money hire.

Mosley’s hire of Morris was about finding a “proven head coach with Texas ties” and I imagine keeping that going would be ideal. Do you try to get GJ Kinne? He has a similar salary and while the situation in San Marcos is derailing, maybe you could get him on the cheap with the promise of a good situation and good vibes.

What about a re-tread? Guys who were hot names but are burning up the Special Assistant to a Head Coach kind of deal?

How about a Neal Brown? Remember he won at Troy, was hired at WVU (tough) and is now at Texas as a staff guy. He was the OC at Texas Tech. He’s not unfamiliar with the state. What about a Mike Gundy? It would be real easy to get some buzz for the legendary Oklahoma State guy. I think he wants a P4 opportunity, but maybe a couple of years at UNT would rebuild his reputation.

What about Todd Whitten? He’s winning at Tarleton State.

Okay now for some real interesting guys: What about Cassity? Jordan Davis? Patrick Cobbs? You get some consistency with culture and continue a good thing. Patrick Cobbs is as close as you can get to being Mr. UNT, but I don’t know if he’s ready for a Head Coach role without having been a coordinator first.

What about UNT legend Zach Orr? He’s making roughly the same salary. He’s on the hot seat for an underperforming Ravens squad. The problem is that he likely doesn’t leave that job, and it is a little hard to sell the public on a fired defensive coordinator as your head coach (I would love it).

College Football — and pro football for that matter — has always been in love with young offensive innovators. It is true, you must score to win. You also need to have some defense. North Texas’ offense has been good for three seasons but the Leap wasn’t made until the defense leveled up from Truly Awful to Average With A Healthy Dose of Turnovers.

Whatever happens — and that includes running it back with this same group — investment will be necessary. North Texas is on a relative shoestring budget, and is relying on a redshirt freshman QB who had never played high school ball. That’s doing more with less, folks. Eric Morris has found QBs, and when he is poached it will be because he has that One Weird (Extremely Valuable) Trick.

Again, whoever is the head coach, the defensive line needs depth, and playmaking. The secondary needs a refresh. The linebacking group could use some depth and more playmaking. You can always add another couple of offensive lineman, and it wouldn’t hurt to add another wideout with some game-changing ability.

You can’t just point to the record and think the program will recruit itself. The momentum gained this season can all be lost in an instant. Sam Houston won 10 games last year. They’ve won only 2 this season. Life happens fast.

Here’s hoping Jared Mosley has been browsing some coaching profiles. You know, just in case.

1. The Bowl game was where we saw Mestemaker throw for the first time.

2. The 1977 season was retroactively converted to a 10-win season by the NCAA. It was weird in that NT played 2/10 games at Fouts, two at neutral sites, and 7 road games. Independent life was rough.