North Texas plays this evening on ESPN against FAU. We previewed the game yesterday.
I was browsing some things this morning and came across Parker Fleming’s Thurday graphics — you may remember him as the cfb-graphs guy. That side has been absorbed by dropbackHQ (dunno, either) and so he just posts the graphs on his twitter/x now.
I was reminded of how it is a recurring thing in life to be baffled by something that used to be familiar. For me, I didn’t recognize Eckel Rate. I had to look it up. It is essentially, ‘important plays inside the 40’.
Eckel Rate: How often your offense [defense] generates [allows] a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40 on any given drive.
Pts Per Eckel: What an offense [defense] does [allows] given that you [your opponent] has a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40
Eckel Ratio: The percent of total first downs and big play touchdowns in a game that you control. https://t.co/973yCZCmP9
Now, I am a nerdy guy. I like me some numbers, and some graphs and some spreadsheets. But also, I like watching an ill-advised athletic feat. “Eckel rate, and EPA/Dropback” feel divorced from the excitement of watching a football game.
You need both, of course. I like looking at the advanced numbers every couple of weeks to calibrate my own perceptions. If I think we are a good defense in certain situations but not in others, does the data see the same thing? When I see that North Texas is converting first downs at what “feels” like a high rate — is that borne out? (yes).
You never want to be blindsided and so it helps. The real value of these advanced numbers is in comparing teams with which you have no familiarity. The numbers never trump the film, for me, however. Because I love the game. The defense is bad? Why — is the defensive line not getting penetration? Is the scheme weird?
The nerds who wanted to improve the games — baseball most famously — were people who loved the game and used the numbers as justification for improvement. Home runs are undervalued! On-base percentage is undervalued! Three-pointers are undervalued! Coaches could stand to be more aggressive on 4th-and-short!
Some of these things were maybe obvious to viewers — I remember as a kid asking why they just didn’t dunk and shoot threes all game and the responses were like, “well that’s not how its done.” But eventually people came around when they saw the data — I also strongly suspect the rise in video game experience among football coaches helped them see the value of some football game theory.
It can be difficult to find the sweet spot between “understanding the game” and “show how clever I am”. It is also real easy to go from “wow I’m smarter about this game” to “I can make some cash by leveraging the insight I have.”
And so you can see how everything is a gambling market now.
Okay I do not mean to depress you. It’s game day. Let’s get hyped. Depending on the night’s proceedings we might do a live podcast after. Really kind of depends. MGN has real-life work things to deal with.
Some links:
Mean Green Gridiron previewed FAU→ You Tube
The Green Groom talks UNT → You Tube
Anchors Aweigh Podcast → Podcast (24:48 mark they discuss the NT game)
The MidReport → North Texas Debrief
— GMG —