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Remember about nine years ago when FAU was the boogie man? Even now if you peruse the FAU all-time records, the 69-31 game in Boca Raton in 2017 litters the page. I am haunted by it. It’s appropriate, given the season. North Texas opened as big favorites for this matchup, but that doesn’t mean much beyond setting expectations.
North Texas is a good team, 5-2 on the year and 3-0 in league play against a fairly decent schedule. FAU is more paper tiger than a danger, but in college football you should never write off the opponent. We said in the preparation for Charlotte that real time to win against weaker opponents is during the week, mentally. Preparing for FAU as if they were the best team in the league is how you show your superiority. There is randomness in every human endeavor, and so you want to eliminate that as a deciding factor by making sure you aren’t leaving the game up to the refs, or a bounce, or one or two plays.
October 29, 2026 ♦︎ 7:30 pm ♦︎ ESPN ♦︎ DATCU Stadium
FAU is 5-2 and 2-1 in the league. That is enough of a statistic to prepare you for this game. The league determines championships on wins and losses, not on statistics, advanced or otherwise.
That said, how do we rate this FAU squad. At this point in the season, we can do some comparisons. They are the absolute worst in the league in yards allowed per play at 6.89. North Texas is mid-pack at 5.69 yards allowed per play. For comparison, the league leaders are ECU, and UAB at 4.87 and 4.96 respectively. Nationally, that’s pretty good. MGN likes to say “anything below 5 yards allowed is excellent, and under 4.5 is dominant.” ECU and UAB are 27th and 36th nationally, by the way. FAU is 135th.
“Well,” you might argue, “they faced a couple of triple-option teams in recent weeks.”
Sure, but so did Tulsa. Tulsa vs Navy? 6.5 yards allowed. Tulsa vs Rice? 5.68 yards allowed. They even were hit with a couple long runs allowed. Tulsa vs Army? 6.00 yards allowed.
How about FAU? Army 7.76 every time. Rice at 10.48, including four 50+ yarders. IT is bad. Navy, in week two (when they were figuring things out) hit them for 6.66 per play. We can peak over at Louisiana Monroe, a very bad offensive team in the Belt, who is averaging 5.10 yards per play on offense (poor — 120th in the nation) well they put up 6.04 on FAU. Not terrible. But essentially Monroe was shut down by Louisiana Tech, Troy, and UAB, and had a solid enough day moving the ball vs FAU.
A chart. FAU’s Opponent, their ypp in the game vs FAU, and the season average and the difference between these.
Florida 9.31 ypp — 6.31 ypp — +3
Navy 6.66 — 6.44 — +0.22
FIU 4.58 — 5.44 — -0.86
ULM 6.04 — 5.10 — +0.94
Tx Southern 4.33 (FCS)
Army 7.76 — 6.47 — +1.29
Rice 10.48 — 5.72 — +4.76
UNT, meanwhile, is the 4th best team in the nation in YPP gained at 7.49 per game. 1
Same chart from NT’s perspective:
Indiana 5.48 ypp — 4.10 — +1.38
UNLV 6.63 — 5.68 — +-0.95
TxSt 7.12 — 5.53 — +1.59
HCU 9.82 (FCS)
Tulsa 6.65 — 5.54 — +1.11
Charlotte 8.29 — 6.58 — +1.71
Navy 9.17 — 5.94 — +3.23
So we have a trend where FAU gives up about 1.56 more yards per play than their opponents averages and UNT gains about 1.66 yards per play more than the opponent typically allows. The caveat here is that these include the games played and I didn’t remove the games they were involved in. But we only want an idea, and don’t need to drill down deeply.
FAU is worse, in terms of yards per play allowed, than the 2024 NT defense which allowed 6.17 yards per play. You remember, the Caponi defense? FAU is worse than last year’s Charlotte, which NT set a passing record against (6.39). They are worse than Tulsa (5.54), Charlotte (6.58), and Navy (5.94). NT averaged 8+ ypp against those teams in two blowout wins and one OT thriller. The offense was not the problem.
Okay that is a lot of words and numbers to support the idea that FAU has a bad defense. Why, are they bad? Well the best I can see on some of the film is that they have poor eyes. Rice ran the triple on 2nd down and FAU were immediately out-leveraged.
The backers are slow to flow, and the QB — Ochoa — pitches this for a big gain.
For comparison’s sake, NT’s first defensive play vs Navy (a better offense than Rice) saw the same triple and NT got a tackle in the backfield on the pitch. Typically, good defenses will make the offense adjust, and it is a chess match. North Texas did well to stop Navy but then kind of ran out of gas for having been on the field for so long. Navy had to make adjustments but were ultimately stopped when it mattered.
Meanwhile, this is the third play for Rice. Yep, a TD.
This even happened as one of Rice’s pulling lineman was falling down. He ran untouched, y’all.
Rice was able to get a ton of push at the line, and that drove the entire offense. FAU had to over-commit to the dive to get any stops but that opened up the pitch and the QB keeper on the edges. Later, Rice hit them with an inverted veer, and the QB keeper portion also led to big yards and long touchdowns. They were sliced up for 49 points.
North Texas has been getting great push the last couple of weeks. Charlotte is bad, but Navy is respectable.
Navy isn’t very large along the defensive line and so likes to bring pressure. North Texas handled that well, and famously hit big play after big play early and often. I think there is a parallel here, and we can expect Neal Brown the play-caller to do some of the same.
Typically, Brown likes to start with a “drive starter” kind of throw, something easy and safe — a hitch, a quick bubble. It opens up the defense and gets everyone into rhythm. After that, expect Brown to see how they defend Jahiem White. Brown moves him all over but it all starts with an inside zone.
FAU has shown they will over-commit, and so expect more over-the-top throws to Stevenson. Rice was able to hit a big gainer on a deep bender route, and NT has plenty of those in the playbook. Navy has a relatively solid defense, and a good coordinator even if they are not supremely talented. They are generally smart, tough, and have good fundamentals. FAU was bullied along the line by Rice, and looked out of position, had bad eyes, and very little closing speed.
It’s difficult to see how FAU is going to stop North Texas. The gameplan is typically “Stop Jahiem White, and pressure Tayven Jackson to force poor decisions.” All easier said than done. The teams that have sold-out to stop White have been picked apart by Jackson. When teams have been successful forcing turnovers, it is by bringing big blitzes, or when Jackson is doing play-action stuff (Texas State, Tulsa, Navy). But even when turning the ball over Jackson is still finding his guys. So best likely case scenario for FAU is that they get one turnover from Jackson but three touchdowns.
Offensively, FAU runs an Air Raid. Modern Air Raids all have a little flair and quirks for the pay-caller and we’ve said in this space that “Air Raid” is more of a philosophy than a set of plays. It is a ball-control offense that wants to stretch you thin with horizontal and vertical threats. It has more in common with the Wing-T and Triple Option than you might think.
Like we’ve seen in Denton with Morris/Rodgers/C. Morris/Mestemaker/Brown/Jackson — the offense puts a lot on the QB to make reads and decisions. Caden Veltkamp is huge ( 6'5") and has a big arm. He is not as efficient as Jackson, but also doesn’t have the safety of a good run game.
Veltkamp is also simply not as good at reading the defense as other Air Raid QBs. Rice was able to bring pressure and get sacks that should have instead been throwaways or quick gains. There is a line of thinking that a sack is a Quarterback statistic. And by that measure FAU has been in the bottom half of American teams. For context, NT is allowing just .86 sacks per game, which is just below Army (0.43) and just ahead of Navy (1.29). FAU is at 1.86.
He’s tall, and he can run a bit, so he holds the ball too long looking for a big play. When it works, it is highlight material.
Ethan Messer is the go-to guy for FAU. He can return it, and catch it, and they also will run it. Here, they pitch it to him from a pistol look.
Defensive coordinator Matt Powledge will have to decide if Messer is good enough to deserve special handling, or if base defense and base principles are enough. Reacting to the various movements can backfire if you can’t get set, or have to over-communicate. That slight hesitation and delay can expose the defense to precisely the thing they are trying to prevent. My vote is to go base principles and make him make you adjust. He had a couple of easy drops vs Rice that should keep him humble.
He is a slot receiver so he gets the majority of his catches in the hole, in the seam behind a linebacker, and in flats and outs. In the red zone they ran that toss play above from pistol, but also threw a slant/screen from trips. If you’ve seen Texas State, or any Air Raid squad, you’ve seen these things. They don’t line up and run at you, but try to out-clever you and with great execution it is dangerous.
They run a lot of standard stuff, and I think the main danger for NT’s secondary is depth, and penalties. UNT has been solid getting to the QB but has given up first downs because of penalties. They also haven’t been great at holding on to gift intercept-able balls. FAU is the type of team that will look like crap for a series, get bailed, out and then find a score and leave you feeling like you won the possession but still gave up points.
A notable moment was when FAU was leading 51-49 vs Rice, and had a chance to kill the game (much like North Texas at Navy) and couldn’t convert a first down. Rice ultimately missed a go-ahead FG and that was that.
Predictions and Odd Thoughts
It is clear to me why the Mean Green are favored so heavily. Neal Brown has the more efficient, explosive offense at home. FAU can do some nice things, but hasn’t proved they can do so consistently. 51 points against Rice was impressive, but that was in Boca Raton, and not in Denton on a Thursday night. It is tougher to do things on the road and Veltkamp is known to throw some interceptions. He threw 17 last year (although he was hurt).
Jackson is PFF’s highest rated QB right ahead of Veltkamp this year. The difference is that North Texas has the better defense, the better running back, and home field advantage. (PFF also has NT ranked 2nd in the league in defense).
I see North Texas blowing this open with more big plays. The hype of the moment can easily get this team too energetic but I think Neal Brown will do a better job of getting his guys ready than Eric Morris did vs USF last year. So expect North Texas to hit some big home runs, and run away with this.
MGN prediction: North Texas 55 - FAU 17
The run game is too strong, the pass game is clicking, and the defense will get to Veltkamp and get a turnover or two.
GMG
Miami - 7.85, Georgia 7.68, Louisville - 7.67, UNT - 7.49, Oregon State 7.35, Oklahoma State - 7.35 are the top 6. Memphis is 7th. Last year North Texas finished third at 7.23 behind Vandy and Notre Dame.