2025: North Texas vs Washington State Preview

... in the Denton Desert

I pity the poor, underpaid staffers who are tasked with coming up with graphics for a game week. The challenge is to be clever, engaging, but mostly quick. I can conjur some forgiveness¹ for not knowing that North Texas’ landscape does not feature many cacti. In Kalamazoo, MI, MGN was speaking to a WMU fan and I mentioned how people often think of Texas as being the Old West, and not, well 268,000+ square miles of coast line, partial desert, grassland, woodland and hills. Texas is vast has many different landforms.

Washington State is a cute little program with a rabid fan base. They are the Texas Tech of the state Washington, and so carry around a lot of little-brother angst. They have a very Offense-First history and hiring of Air Raid legend Mike Leach only furthered that. They were good in a short time, but the relative lack of resources kept the ceiling low. Mike Leach left for Mississippi State and Wazzu rotated through some coaches. One was fired for having bad opinions about Covid, and the other left for Wake Forest. The current coach level up from South Dakota State and has brought a run-oriented offense with him, along with a lot of SDST transfers.

How is that looking? Well WSU has won a couple of games this year but has done it more with defense than offense. Last year they had Mateer, now of Oklahoma, and put up 70 on Portland State and 37 on TTU. This year you have 13 on Idaho and 36 on San Diego State. It will be a challenge for the Mean Green defense, that was threatened by the dedicated, powerful run game of Western Michigan. That team in Kalamazoo did not have a potent pass game and this one has a young QB who has thrown two 200+ games thus far. North Texas is not a good defense, not yet, but it is vastly improved from last year.

Every week we will tell you that Skyler Cassity’s group will game plan on how WSU likes to pass protect and adjust the pressure scheme accordingly. They will do that, but what will get NT in pass-pressure downs is the run-defense. Last week WMU ran for 216, but had no other option. The pass game was a hope and a prayer, and all the yards through the air came on misdirection and play-action.

The running back group is all straight out of SDST. They ran for 1500 yards last season. The line is bolstered by a couple of transfers as well. This group is more dynamic, compared to the Air Raid versions of this offense, but not as explosive as of yet. Ben Arbuckle is gone (Oklahoma) so there is a lot of running at your face going on here now. The question that came up often during the game last week was Is North Texas physical enough for this?

Ultimately, NT held WMU to basically nothing in the second half. It was crucial, and something previous squads had trouble with. We must remember it is a team game. That doesn’t only mean individuals have to help each other, but units as well. The offense was pinned back and the defense held WMU to a reasonable amount. When the defense was losing a bit, the offense helped out with big drives. It was quality complementary football.

Washington State wants to run the ball. That means they will not abandon it when it looks inefficient. They trust it in short yardage. They trust it in long yardage. They will base their pass game on the run actions. If the defense has to resort to selling out to stop a given run they will take advantage of that and throw it over the top. San Diego State was beat on a couple of these types of things. We saw last week on the road (and last year vs Army) how a ball-control offense can put pressure on the NT offense by simply controlling the clock.

As always the game plan is to stop the run on early downs. NT is listed fairly highly on TFLs, even if the fandom is a little worried about the early down penetration. I agree that blowing up run plays in the backfield is the ultimate goal and looks great on highlights, but I think staying gap sound and making tackles in the run lane² is how you win games. With the occasional exception, NT has forced 2nd and 3rd-and longs with regularity. I also think as the team gets comfortable in this scheme they will recognize plays even quicker and react faster, causing those blow-up plays as we proceed through the fall. Here’s hoping.

By the by, here are PFF’s top NT run defenders are listed in the following screenshot.

Does that track? Ethan Wesloski our top guy (also has 4 TFLs on the year, leading the squad), followed by Ethan Day and Trey Fields. Then Shane Whitter, and CB David Fisher. For me, it does. Wesloski has been our strong side linebacker making plays at the line and doing great. Ethan Day has blown up a lot, and caused a ruckus.

NT has been good (better than last year) but the pass rush game can improve. Lamar and WMU weren’t really very great at throwing the ball and WSU should be an improvement in raw talent, but a young QB will make mistakes and we can look for North Texas to try to make him process things under duress. I expect, depending on what the run game for WSU does, that the game plan will be largely vanilla for Jaxon Potter. One, or two read throws and lots of simple stuff to execute. North Texas has been solid (average!) tackling and that can be enough. Why? Well the offense for NT is still very explosive.

The Offense Is Still Explosive

Ethan Day, power blocker

In this offense, a ‘25 variation of the Air Raid, a quarterback is crucial. Drew Mestemaker has been incredible. He fired off some NFL-level throws in Kalamazoo, and is not back in the friendly confines of Texas, where he has never thrown for less than 300 yards. WMU did their best to keep the ball away from him, but he led the Mean Green down the field for the necessary points to tie, and then win the game.

WSU will attempt to do the same. Sibley will be out (4th ranked offensive player on the squad according to PFF) and so the run game might lose some pop. The rest of the running back group can produce yardage but the Sibley draws, shovels, and runs had the potential to go to the house.

That said, Cameron Dorner is turning into the number one possession receiver, and Wyatt Young into our deep threat. Everyone else is playing a role, and can be The Guy on a day, but broadly speaking Dorner has come up with some huge grabs, and Wyatt Young looks like Mestemaker’s favorite big play target. Long may it continue.

We don’t love the offensive line getting beat by WMU’s defensive line, but let us note that WMU had some quality transfers playing.

WSU has some talent, but nothing that stands out (yet). I count four South Dakota State guys on the defensive side. In the same way that NT is a good portion of Sam Houston State, this WSU team is South Dakota State. So it goes, in modern college football.

Intangibles, Vibes, and Looming Narratives

The vibe of this week’s MGN Chat is that there is concern that NT will mess the bed in a big game. Getting worked by Cal two seasons ago, and destroyed by TTU last year are still fresh in the minds of the faithful (and casuals). Add that to the seven-straight bowl losses mixed in with two CUSA title losses and you have a general feeling that North Texas loses when big games are happening. Now, you can probably argue that the Arkansas game (mixed in that time period) and the UTSA upset counter that narrative but I say it does not. The general feeling is that North Texas does not come up big when it needs to and feelings drive all of college football.

For a lot of reasons, this is a big opportunity. WSU is still — and again, the feeling matters more than reality here — more of a name program, having been associated with the more prestigious version of the Pac-8/10/12 through the years. I would argue that North Texas has to win to regain some sense of self-regard. The department is working hard to sell-out the stadium and they need Eric Morris’ program to put on a show. NT is a -6 point favorite (to start, according to Circa) but the vibe I get is one of unease masked with enthusiasm.

I will say that you can be confident that North Texas will play with a level head (collectively). The notable thing is that NT hasn’t got flustered. Western Michigan controlled the game but there was no panic. NT’s punter looked off, but there was no panic. The play-calling and execution (most important) was there. There were drops, and sacks, and weirdness. No panic. NT did not need miracles in the way it relied on heroics from Chandler Morris against Memphis. No, instead there was execution. The game-winner was a 2-yard run. Power football, no funkiness required. No bottom shelf play-calls. Just regular football. That’s good.

WSU will challenge NT on the ground. Their defense will be tough and disciplined, and make Mestemaker show off his gifts, but I don’t think NT will panic. Of course, panic is not the concern at home, but getting too high. Eric Morris’ teams have got too antsy only once in my opinion: vs Army where the QB was trying to make too much happen against a team waiting to pounce on a mistake. Drew Mestemaker is a level-headed kid with gifts. He just has to do what he’s done well in three games: move the offense, make good decisions, and let his guys make plays.

Questions: Will …

1. … we crap the bed?

A good question. This is subjective, as for some people the answer is “any loss is bad, and a bed-crapper situation.” I will contend that NT’s defense is still coming together, and if they are very bad, it will fall into that category. If the offense — so hyped, and the strength — falters because of silly mistakes, or weird play-calls (4th downs?) I will say that counts. I expect, however, more of the same that we have seen this season: an okay run game that compliments a young QB with some young weapons. This offense is still developing into its full potential, and we can see the pieces that are growing into real threats.

My eyes are telling me what PFF is noting

2. … we be able to run the ball?

Sibley is out, but there are some young burners in the depth chart. The real question is bout getting short yardage stuff. NT won the game last week on the ground, and set up some good drives with big runs. There are enough guys here to do the job. We don’t need 250 yards here, just effective yards.

3. … we sell out DATCU?

I don’t see a sell-out, but I see at least 28K.

4. … win?

Yes, gmg. In the season preview I said 30-27, I will now say NT 32 WSU 29

1. Let me just footnote here that this week someone was assassinated and while I disagree with a good amount of what the guy put forward, I think it is reprehensible that people resort to 200-yard shots to deal with disagreements. The whole thing — meaning the horror and the subsequent conversations — had an effect on me. Instead of diving into football and whatever, I spent time with my family. Take any and all of the hyperbole about this football game with the requisite understanding that nothing discussed about this game is ultimately that important.

2. Outland had a huge miss on the QB on a scramble last week for WMU’s first score.