2025: Navy Preview

It's the biggest game of the season. So far

This is a long post. Try reading on the website for the full-experience. Also consider subscribing and supporting the site.

If you are a ball-knowing kind of fan, you had this weekend circled. Not only is it a Friday night Halloween weekend, but also the day Navy comes to town. Predicting preseason outcomes months in advance is silly, but we did it and we said Navy would be good and a tough out. The program has a storied history (mainly from the 1960s) it fell on hard times through the 70s and 80s before being revived with Paul Johnson’ reign starting in 2002. When Johnson left for Georgia Tech, Ken Niumatalolo kept it going until he was let go and then defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was kept on and eventually won the job permanently.

Newberry was hired for his attacking 3-4/4-2-5 scheme which brings chaos and is “not boring”

Interestingly, the Newberry era — has been more about Navy’s offensive improvement. They still run the triple, but there are more Pistol elements, and they get bigger gashing plays than ever before. Newberry came in and helped the defense when he arrived, but in his time as head football coach, Navy is near the top of the league (and nation) in yards per play.

CFB Graphs

North Texas is right behind the Naval Academy in yards per play — this was helped tremendously by last week’s 700+ yard performance against Charlotte in which Drew Mestemaker put up 608 yards (a school and league record).

QB Horvath, Snipe Z/A Heidenreich and Chatman are leaders in the conference in yards per carry. They are explosive all over using a combination of regular triple option principles (FB Dive, QB option, slotback option) and veer stuff mixed in with some looks from Pistol, Gun, and others.

The heart and soul is QB Blake Horvath, who is all over the Navy record books. If he were to throw the ball a little more to qualify, he would be the leader in the league in yards per attempt at about 11+. He already is just behind Robert Henry in yards per game (116). He killed FAU last week with the QB Power and QB sweep stuff going left to the field side. He mixed it up with some pitches to keep them honest, and all told he ripped up FAU in the fourth quarter.

Navy is 7-0 mainly because he’s balling. That said, they have played a very soft schedule:

• VMI 52-7

• UAB 38-24

• at Tulsa 42-23

• Rice 21-13

• Air Force 34-31

• at Temple 32-31

• FAU 42-32

For me, the real tests here were maybe Temple and FAU. Maybe. Temple is a rebuilding program but I respect Kasey Keeler. Temple had this game won, but (again, rebuilding) couldn’t seal the game and Navy converted a 4th and 1 from midfield for a 50+ yard score(Horvath) and then followed that with a 2-point conversion.

I am not saying Navy isn’t a solid team, but just that they have not been tested by anyone really good. North Texas has also been in some tight games against competition that’s not super great (Army, WMU) on the road. So it goes. ¹

They score, we score

Against Option teams, because they are so unusual, we typically start with Can We Stop Them. Instead, let’s talk about Them Stopping Us.

Attacking Navy

In a nutshell, North Texas is an Air Raid team against a hybrid 4-2-5/3-4 team.² Navy likes to use a linebacker type as the typical pass rushing end in a 4-down system. So they have 90 Moutome as a DE (263/6-3), 96 Landon-Robinson as their nose (287/6-0), and 95 Griffen Willis (273/6-1) as their other DT. Then they’ll use safety/linebacker bodies as the other rush end. They do this by design, as they are undersized already. Might as well put guys that can play football and do multiple things out there and give yourself a chance. They make up for lack of size with aggression.

You might remember that North Texas played Navy two seasons ago in Maryland, and exploded for some big plays but were undone by sacks and turnovers. Chandler Rogers was famously (in our circles) sacked in a big moment and had a big rush in his face for another. He fumbled twice. He also scooted for a long run. That is pretty much what Navy is going for — they think they can win a game with their offense scoring in bunches, and their defense getting enough high-variance turnovers to win the game. This season, it has worked.

Florida Atlantic, under Zach Kittley runs a similar system to NT. In fact, two years ago they looked more similar than today. Watching the highlights of that game I was struck at how it looked like first-year Morris. NT doesn’t do the stacked WRs anymore, but FAU does.³

Navy didn’t always bring pressure, on the first 3rd-and-medium they sat back in a five-under look. FAU converted. The Owls were able to move the ball well including with the old Air Raid staple 92 Post. ⁴

Against, FU they got pressure, and hit Veltcamp with just four. North Texas’ pass protection has not been amazing protecting Mestemaker. Charlotte was able to hit the QB and targeted freshman Caleb Hawkins. We noted that in the quick reaction. Here’s a screen grab from the 2nd half where Mestemaker was sacked after 24 got bull-rushed.

Top of the screen, 24 getting bullied.

Sacked with a four-man rush

My sense is that FAU is simply not as good offensively as North Texas. The plays are similar, but the execution and performance is different. FAU runs the same WR arc screens as NT, and had success, but North Texas has been taking their screens to the house.

North Texas two seasons ago was getting rushed with no answers. My hot take was that those are mitigated by better QB play and some experience against Newberry/Volkers.

Look at how aggressive they are

When North Texas is good, the ball is out quickly, the pass-catchers are running after catch, and the tempo is quick. The run game is powerful and NT is scoring quickly. When the NT offense is off, Mestemaker is sacked, throwing interceptions, and passes are dropped. This week’s improvement areas are in 1) Mentally shaking off that great performance to ensure it is repeatable and 2) Helping Caleb Hawkins improve in pass protection.

Navy (11th at 7.8) is hanging around the bottom of the league in yards/attempt per pass with the likes of UTSA (12th 7.9), Charlotte (13th 8.7) and UAB (14th 9.9). North Texas is throwing for 8.6 yards per attempt, for context.⁵

Temple was slicing them up. There will be room to throw.

Best Case Scenario: North Texas lights up a weak Navy secondary with the litany of options and Mestemaker throws for 3 scores, 300+ yards and the run game adds 150+ and a couple of scores.

Worst Case Scenario: A combination of the USF third quarter, the WMU first quarter, and the South Alabama game where the offense is missing some open ones, the run game is stymied, and penalties mean we are asking Hawkins to convert 3rd and longs by breaking 9 tackles.

Stopping Navy

Blake Horvath is a killer. He can bully ball, run by you, and makes great decisions in tight spaces like a point guard in basketball. Against Temple, he converted a 4th-and-1 and took it 50 yards for a score when the game was on the line. He ran all over FAU with the QB Power/Sweep again and again, showing his speed and power.

Typically, he likes Heidenreich as a target, but against FAU he was looking at Chatman. My guesstimate is that Navy is adjusting to teams’ adjustments.

For what it is worth, North Texas very awful at defending designed QB runs. WMU, Army, USF, and South Alabama all had success. Navy has the best all-around QB in the league with respect to Byrum Brown — thanks to the sheer volume of attempts he has. Horvath is the danger.⁶

North Texas has done well against teams’ attempting to pass (6.3 yards per attempt against) but is 9th in the league in rush yards against (4.48). Navy’s offense is about getting you focused on one thing, then hitting you with the counter. From the dive, to the QB option, to the sweeps, to the play-action throws down the field. Then they’ll come back with the main thing again.

We likely will see more TiTe fronts from North Texas and DC Skyler Cassity. NT was solid against Army for a while, but were worn down. USF did some bully ball and showed their superiority late. North Texas is not out-matched by athletes here, but the mental wear and tear of defending the option can get to you. FAU was in a one-possession game until it was blown open by the Navy offense ripping long ones.

We saw NT’s secondary get ripped up by some power formations and one, and two-man option routes by Charlotte early in the game on Friday. I fully expect Navy to take a few of those lessons for this one. A sneaky running theme is that teams that try to throw deep on North Texas have had success. Even Army hit a long one over the top. Expect the Naval Academy to test the air defense.

Best Case Scenario: North Texas forces some Horvath turnovers in the air, thanks to some third and longs. They get some stops on 4th down as well, and let the offense get to work.k

Worst Case Scenario: A re-hash of the legendary 2007 game where we watch these teams walk up and down the field.

---

Unsorted Notes, Thoughts, and a Prediction

• North Texas has 26 rushing scores on the year, two behind Navy.

• NT is at 46 points per game, Navy at 37.3.

• Navy is 2-0 vs UNT, having won in 2007 74-62 in Denton, for a while the highest scoring game in FBS history. They won 27-24 in 2023 in Maryland.

• The line is NT by -6, but the advanced stats have NT winning by something like a couple of points or with win probabilities in the 54% range.

After watching a lot of Navy football, I come away with respect for Blake Horvath, the offense, and a firm belief that if you pass-protect, you will throw for big yards. Temple bullied the Navy defensive front in short-yardage scenarios, and well Navy hasn’t played an offense this good all season. There will be plenty of opportunities for points. Navy’s run defense numbers and their record are thanks to that offense and their ability to get sacks and fumbles and tackles for loss when they need it. It is high-variance and not unlike some of the defensive philosophies we’ve seen in Denton.

I think North Texas can get enough stops, and score enough points to get a win over the Midshipman.

MGN Prediction: In the preseason I predicted a close loss 21-30. I think NT is playing good football right now, however. I like North Texas 45-31.

GMG

1. I used BCFToys to check my thinking and he has Navy ranked 136th in SOS and NT 95th. Says an average team would lose 2.52 times with NT’s schedule, while only .78 times with Navy’s. It’s soft.

2. Which is funny because 4-2-5 teams are typically a 4-3 team that is made more dynamic. 3-4 teams are the ones that migrate to the 3-3-5 teams, or the Penny/Tite front teams.

3. By the by, Rogers scored off that double stacked look with a read option play.

4. You might remember NT hit Sides for a long gain on 92 - aka MESH

Sides is coming over for the Mesh here.

5. This section is about our offense against their defense, but for context Navy is first in yards per pass at 11-ish and NT is first in yards per pass against at 6.3.

6. Insert Breaking Bad meme here.