2025: It's UTSA Hate Week

Let's rev up some strong feelings

In 2021, No. 15 UTSA came to Denton fresh off a miracle win vs UAB in what was essentially the CUSA West play-off game for the CUSA Championship game. In my duties as CUSAREPORT guy, I was there on the field as the UTSA players were yelling at their own fans amid the eerie quiet of a large crowd of unhappy people. They won, the people were delirious, and all that spent energy was a factor the next week in Denton.

North Texas had won four-straight in a bid to resurrect the season. Seth Littrell was rumored to have saved his job by this effort and a win over a ranked rival was surely going to keep him employed for another year. However UTSA had won the previous year in San Antonio in blowout fashion. UNT was a large underdog.

As it was, UNT ran all over them. “We knew we could” said one coach. MGN made the Torrey shirt (still great) and it was good times all around. That was four years ago. NT has gone 0-4 since.

• 2022 - L 31–27 - San Antonio - NT drove for the go-ahead points, but a UTSA 4th-and-1 conversion led to a long pass to the TE, which led to a lob into the endzone. We said before the game that if the game came down to UTSA having to throw a 50/50 ball to win the game we wouldn’t be mad. We weren’t mad. So it goes.

• 2022 - League Title game - L 48 –27 - San Antonio - NT ran much better in this rematch from the same season. However the defense could not stop UTSA from scoring. The route was on. This was the last of the Seth Littrell era.

• 2023 - L 37–29 - Denton - This was the first matchup with Eric Morris in charge, and NT turned the ball over too often. There was some good here, but it was not the kind of thing anyone wanted to think about too much.

• 2024 - L 49–27 - San Antonio - A friday night matchup where NT fans felt like they could do some damage. Unfortunately, the defense could not stop anything (allowed a UTSA school record 681 yards) — this was the last of the defensive coordinator — and it was evident that the QB was hurting. The run game was explosive, but inconsistent. Turnovers abounded

That brings us to this matchup in Denton. NT has a new defensive coordinator that was brought in to fix the run of school-record yards allowed, and to give the explosive offense a fighting chance.

Coming off of the 63-points allowed, and 500+ yards, including 172 second half rush yards, to USF I can see how that note really doesn’t hold much weight with you, dear reader. Still, UNT is much improved. The Roadrunners will test that, however. They bring in a good rushing attack with a back who has sprinted for long runs against the likes of Texas A&M. The only squad to really wrangle him, was Temple (Rice doesn’t count as it was a blowout and he still was at 5 yards a pop.)

Jeff Traylor isn’t dumb. He maybe isn’t the best coach in the world, but he can recruit, and he knows how to win a little. In the last five years, he’s leaned on the run game against UNT and had tons of success. I don’t mean to hurt you, but here are the numbers:

Yes, that’s 443 yards rushing in 2020, one of the most terrible years in NT history stopping the run. That was the year nearly everyone set a personal best against NT. Including in the bowl game where the backup dude had a career game. There hasn’t been a game where they’ve run for less than 200 yards — including in that NT win in 2021.

In 2025, NT is averaging 200 yards a game allowed thus far. Army, and USF went over three bills. The silver lining is that no team has broken 6-yards a carry.¹ That’s an MGN number that usually is a sign that you are simply bad. You can get away with allowing 4-yards per run, maybe 5, but 6 indicates you are getting gashed. Again, this is a rough approximation.

So stopping these boys is about stopping the run game. Or at least slowing it down some. Temple is the model in this respect. After that, Traylor reportedly took over the playcalling duties and they hung 61 on Rice. Put an asterisk on that, however, as the Rice game was more about profoundly bad luck on the Owls’ part. They turned the ball over a bunch, had no offense, and were down to the 3rd string QB — who was hurt.

Owen McCown is like a poor man’s Arch Manning in that he comes from a football family. NFL quarterbacking is in his blood, and even if it is not HOF-level stuff, it is still good quarterbacking.

Is he good? My personal opinion is that he’s a solid American Conference QB with some flaws. They like to protect him, by putting a lot of eye-candy in front. Motions, play-fakes with sweeps, leaks, crossers, and the like. He threw some darts rolling to his strong side (left) a few times. It is classic football stuff. Fake right with the dangerous running back, and throw back left when the defense bites, trying to be aggressive.

CFBGraphs

In short, it looks like UTSA is dangerous when they are on and UNT is vulnerable when they are not on. Pretty typical stuff.

What about the other side of the ball? We just saw Drew Mestemaker have his worst game by far. USF had the biggest and strongest defense we’ve seen NT compete with this season, and it showed. The time to throw was short, the windows were smaller. Still, there were points left on the board. NT scored 21 in the first half and there was meat on the bone, so to speak.

Mestemaker wasn’t completely nullified. In his football career, he was bound to have a turnover-filled game. The very best in history have all had them. The real test of a player is in how they respond. Will we see a quarterback with the same poise or one who is afraid of making some other mistake? UTSA’s defensive front is quality.

The hallmark of the Traylor defenses are in the defensive front. They have gone 9-10 deep at times and had 12 guys play vs TAMU. They led the league in tackles for loss the last two seasons, and are on pace for the same number this season (around 8 per game). ² TFLs aren’t the only statistic to care about, but it is a good indicator of disruption. Offenses are like Phileas Fogg and like to be on schedule. Losing yards is a great way to be off schedule.

NT has a better rushing attack this season, even if the yards-per-carry is down. Last year defenses sat back and dared NT to run. The run game got some pop, but the explosion in the pass game was the primary concern. North Texas has 54 first downs via run this season, and had 84 all of last year. Also the number of first downs is up by two per game. Oh and yes, NT is up in points per game. The running game has been more effective, helping the overall offense.

USF’s game plan was to bring some pressure on Mestemaker and force bad decisions. That worked. They hit hard, and caused havoc. NT fumbled the ball also and five turnovers (three picks) is how you lose games no matter how your defense is playing.

Last year NT threw some picks to a version of this UTSA defense also. Teams have changed the way they approach Mestemaker but USF had probably the game plan we’ll see replicated this weekend. USF trusted their athletes on the RT 72, and the LG 65, and had success. Mestemaker in the first half made some nice moves in the pocket to avoid sacks and fire the ball down field or turn it up and run for firsts.

Despite his three interceptions, there was a LOT of good from our QB1. Andre Ware was praising his poise, arm strength, and ability to read the defense throughout until, of course, the three picks. Fair, but don’t forget the good.

So what about those interceptions? Let’s go through them quickly.

The first: USF is in split field coverage and Mestemaker reads the linebacker as walling off the vertical route (the 3rd receiver from the defensive perspective). Drew anticipates the route coming open with pressure in his face and is wrong. The linebacker makes a great play, reading the combination and jumping the danger. Sides (22) would have come open just a moment later as the backer would have been put in conflict, but there was no time.

I see what Drew was looking at and this is mostly a great play by the backer, who was helped by a good pass rush getting into Mestemaker’s face. A QB has to throw before the window is there, and I bet the WR coach is telling Carnes that he has to run through that route. If he does, I bet we get a more contested ball than a surefire interception.

MGN verdict: Great play by the defense, with “help” by the WR.

The second: Mestemaker throws a deep ball off a play-fake and the defensive back makes a great read on it and it falls into his lap, basically.

This moment was one where fans were immediately critical of Morris’ play-calling. Andre Ware called this the moment where “NT went away from Hawkins and went a little pass-happy”

I think all of that is a little overheated. Before this there was a little slant call that was on, but slightly misfired. The second down play was a McGill run for three yards, the third-and-seven (a passing down) was a Mestemaker scramble to get the first. (see video above). That set up this play from the 50. This is classic play-action territory. You fake a run and throw it deep. USF threw a double-pass in this area later. I do not hate Morris’ decision here. This was just poorly executed.

My read? Landon Sides released inside when he should have gone outside. Obviously, I am not in the huddle or the meetings and all that so we don’t know without asking them, but the look of this play is that it is designed to find Coleman on a deep cross. Sides is a “peek” route (typically) where if it is open, you throw it. But the vertical release is designed to clear out the side for Coleman. Sides releases inside, which allows the defensive back to have eyes on the ball and go make a play.

Now, Mestemaker is by no means perfect here. He throws off his back foot, as he is concerned about the pressure up the middle. He floats the ball, and it is nowhere near Coleman. Maybe he was throwing to Sides. It is not a great ball if he saw him release inside. That said, if he was throwing the fade it was sort of in the right spot for that.

MGN verdict: Miss by the QB, with “help” by the WR.

The third: NT is now down a score after the double-dip from USF. Mestemaker throws a crossing route to Coleman which sails, and is picked off.

USF brings just four, with a slow dog — a guy slow-rushing to occupy a lineman, but also preserving the option to peel off in coverage. You see this in video games where a guys “users” the LB and makes a read depending on the play. ³ They also have a man in the “low hole” — someone ready to pick up any crossers into his area.

This could not have been more effective. USF’s outside defensive lineman rush inside, and the outside linebackers bring the outside pressure and both win. The right tackle whiffs, as he is simply not built to hedge inside then get outside quickly enough.

Mestemaker, likely feeling the pressure and seeing the RAT (guy in the low hole) late, now is hurried and fires high. That’s the literal recipe for throwing interceptions. Get hurried, throw high over the middle. Pick city.

Verdict: QB needs to eat this and take a sack. Chalk it up as a win for the defense and live to fight again. Also, mix in some credit to USF for flipping the game. This was the first time NT had the ball after the second interception, and the team had seen a 21-14 lead turn into a 28-21 deficit. I can see where Mestemaker wanted to make a play.

Expect UTSA to have our right tackle 72 circled and a series of blitzes and rushes and things designed to come his way.

North Texas’ offense was good-to-great in the first half, and if it weren’t for the turnovers, and the terrible series where they went backwards thanks to false-starts (the center!) and a holding, they moved the ball well and should have had more points. The second half was bad, in part because NT was clearly one-dimensional and the weakness-vs-strength (offensive line vs their defensive line) was too much in USF’s favor.

So expect more of the same from North Texas. I would put UTSA’s defense somewhere between South Alabama’s and USF’s in talent. Texas State runs a similar offense and they put up 43 vs the Runners. Colorado State is bad, Temple is improving and moved the ball well. Rice had a disaster happen to them — so it is tough to gauge. A&M simply out-talented these guys.

I believe in the Mean Green. I say NT exercises some demons, and puts a statement win down. 45-27

GMG

1. In 2020, averaged 6 yards a run. UTSA had 10-yards a run. App St had 12 yards a run. It was terrible.

2. North Texas is up about 1.6 tackle for loss per game from two seasons ago, and about .6 up from last year. TFLs aren’t the end-all-be-all but a good indicator of quality. NT last year had some good first and second downs tops, but would often blow up on 3rd down. So don’t take this as the One True Stat.

3. I hate this term. It verb is “use’”not “user.”