The Morning After: American Championship Game Debrief

North Texas loses in heartbreaking fashion.

Drew Mestemaker rolled left, saw an open Wyatt Young and fired the ball to him. The pass was behind him, forcing an acrobatic attempt at a catch, which was unsuccessful and the ball landed easily in a Tulane defensive back’s hands.

“Drew makes that pass 99 times of 100,” said Morris.

Walking out of the stadium a North Texas support staffer remarking to a league staffer said, “We play that game 100 times we win 99.”

If it felt like a 1/100 kind of performance, I suppose you are in similar company of thought. North Texas turned the ball over five times and allowed 14 points off those. The margin was 13. Drew Mestemaker, so solid for his redshirt freshman season, threw three interceptions — two of which in the red zone. The first was the aforementioned pass to Young, and the final one came in desperation time with a minute to go on 3rd and 6.

Credit to Tulane, whose game plan in this one was to control the ball and clock, and get to Mestemaker. They succeeded in all those aspects, and the limited offense — just 31 points and 145 throwing for Retzlaff — did enough to win. North Texas failed to score 30 points for the first time all season, and a good portion of that was winning their one-on-one battles up front. Eric Morris called that out, “it wasn’t like they were blitzing. Just winning battles and some twists.” Mestemaker was sacked five times, and one was on such a twist — the left tackle followed the edge rusher inside while the interior guy went outside and got around easily.

So much went wrong for North Texas, and while we can credit Tulane all day, some if it was just poor execution. Caleb Hawkins was injured on the first drive, and Kiefer Sibley came in the game but didn’t know where to line up. He had to be coached by Mestemaker on these points pre-snap. He also went the wrong way on a play-action fake.

Morris, after getting happy-feet, started missing easy passes. Some of it was the rain. Some of it was the circumstance. All of the reasons don’t really matter. The corner routes to Williams, Young were missed. It put North Texas in bad spots.

One of the hallmarks of this season’s team is the efficiency. A good portion of that efficiency is the run game being effective in the red zone. Without Hawkins, the NT run game lost some physicality on yards-after-contact (Sibley and Gray were good attacking the gaps, and sprinting into space, but lack the same tackle-breaking ability). If you can’t eat up yards in the run game, you pass more and now you open yourself up to a mistake. North Texas was 2/4 in the red zone, where they are used to being perfect. Two interceptions there in the second half, killed the game.

Now of course there were other factors. The interception-return that should have been a touchback. The fair-catch interference that wasn’t. The Hawkins injury that led to a fumble and a quick change touchdown.

The trolls were saying that North Texas wilts vs good teams and honestly it is hard to argue. USF and Tulane both had success pressuring Mestemaker and forcing turnovers from him. The receivers had drops that led to interceptions. There were fumbles.

I think we have to remember that Wyatt Young, Drew Mestemaker, and Caleb Hawkins are all underclassmen. The biggest game of the season saw the youngest guys play less than their high standard, and that is probably more normal. “Hey, your redshirt freshman quarterback threw the ball a little wild on the road in the championship game after being sacked and hit often. Are you surprised?”

We aren’t surprised. We are a little disappointed but that only comes from measuring these guys by the high standards set this season. We can be proud of their performances, and know Friday could and should have been different.

Things that should have been done better by more experienced people? The head coach could have kept his head better. He spent the first half arguing with the refs — a known past time of all coaches, to be fair — and seemingly let the circumstances get the better of him. Should North Texas have gone for it on 4th and 6 from inside their own territory? Maybe. Should they have gone no-huddle and quickly ran 92 (Mesh)? I don’t know. Second-guessing is a cheap game, and easy to do, but in thats moment I was very skeptical. I think you are better off punting there. I get the rationale: Tulane was controlling the ball and the offense needed some rhythm. Punting then and allowing a touchdown would be a worst-case scenario. But the risk is that they stop you and … score a touchdown. The only gain was in time. So it was a bad gamble in my opinion. You are risking a lot for a little gain. Not worth it.

Now, fourth-down aggression is fine, generally speaking. I like being bold and aggressive. Furthermore, when North Texas had favorable 4th downs — or ones where they had time to think about it — they were successful. Twice Mestemaker found Miles Coleman for big gains — one a touchdown (time to think about which Y-cross play to run) — and later in Tulane territory.

We’ll pause here to discuss the touchback that should-have-been. From my view (press box) it was clear. From the broadcast view, it was pretty clear. The referees didn’t think so. It was a terrible stroke of bad luck on a night where North Texas could only get bad luck. For me, however, the bad already had happened. We were simply hoping for a miracle to bail us out of bad execution. Mestemaker had no one open on Mesh — NT was looking for something to break open. The play was a little slow-developing and there was pressure in Drew’s face. He looked to find a receiver and Wyatt Young dropped the pass — but worse, he tipped it to the defender. He was off to the races.

At that point, hoping your QB can force a fumble (he did!) is needle-in-a-haystack type of odds that you are betting on.

Every turnover was not just bad luck. The first interception was the pick-six — you shouldn’t be in that spot and you aren’t forcing throws. The second was a poor throw. If you execute better earlier (NT had four other plays in the red zone including a fade attempt that went nowhere) you don’t need so many attempts. The third interception was on 3rd and 6 after NT couldn’t get into the end zone on a run, then on a pass. Mestemaker forced it, when he should have thrown it away (again) and played on 4th down. But even then, NT is down 13 points with 1:49 left — it was desperation time.

When Hawkins fumbled — its possible he should not have been in the game, but consider it was 3rd and 21 and you are simply looking for a bailout —it was a “just get what you can” play. Hawkins got 11 yards, but fumbled as his injury flared up again. How’d you get to 3rd-and-21? Well, a bad snap that Mestemaker tried to salvage by throwing quick to Cam Dorner. The Tulane DB nearly intercepted it. Mestemaker spent the next few seconds barking at the referee about the situation. Morris was doing the same. The next play was an HB Swing Fake/Middle screen attempt that was blown up by Tulane. Mestemaker took a sack. It was evidence of great game-prep by the Green Wave.

NT seemed to be getting some rhythm after a weird second-drive start. It went 2-yard loss, missed corner route to Williams then a Pass Interference penalty. Don’t love being in 3rd and long, but that first down helped NT — Hawkins for 7, looking like he would break one. An audible to a run for a first down. Quick seam route to Williams, beating the blitz. NT is in plus territory. Then? Well then that weird snap thing.

Two plays later it was a score for Tulane.

The next drive? More dysfunction. Braydon Nelson complaining that the false-start on him was actually Mestemaker’s fault for doing a weird clap. Mestemaker sacked after pump-faking the HB flat route and stepping up into the pocket. Confusion about where to line up— Mestemaker directing Young here and Williams there, and Sibley out there and then an audible to Wyatt Young on a Shock Route — an inside WR fade — it is incomplete and nearly intercepted, but Young had a shot at it after it was tipped. Third and twelve to go. Sacked for a 16-yard loss.

After holding Tulane to just a field goal — again, huge by the defense — the offense comes out for a mediocre drive thanks to some misses. 2 yard run. Dorner for 6. Dorner on a crosser. Cam Dorner on a stop route. Then? Miss Young on a corner route (again). Then a sack. Nelson is beat by the twist move by the defensive line.

After all this, the defense got another stop. The ball was inside the 1, there was a horse collar but NT forced a punt on 3rd and 6. This is when the interference blew the game open. Hidden in all the conversation and yelling about the injustice of it all — deserved in my opinion — was the fact that Tipton did touch the ball. If he has better luck — don’t we all wish this? — it doesn’t touch him and North Texas has the ball.

Instead…

Tulane gets a 4th and goal Tush Push with :03 on the clock and goes into the half with a big lead. They are doing the USF playbook, basically.

The worst 2nd quarter ever

Morris talked about USF having the worst six minutes of football ever, but this quarter was close.

The third quarter started with Tulane having the ball and the defense forcing a punt after a short drive. Here is where Morris really poured water on an electrical fire: Drew scrambles for no-gain, gets bumped on the sideline. Johnny Dickson gets a 15-yarder for defending Drew’s honor. Now NT is backed up to Baton Rouge. Sibley runs for 4 yards, Drew scrambles for 11. He goes for it, and then the pick-six happens.

Punt. Just punt there. Your offense had shown nothing there, Drew Mestemaker had to scramble twice for 12 yards on 2 carries. Adding injury to insult, Dickson is hurt on the interception.

For any Oklahoma State fans reading this, be warned that this Morris was the version we saw most of the last two years. His preferred tool when the chips are down is offensive aggression. I get it, it is his strength. The offense has been so good this year (credit to Morris) that he hasn’t had to ask himself: “Should I go for this?”

The next drive ended with the Drew interception in the endzone. Dorner had a big grab, Wyatt Young had a drop. Mestemaker had a huge long run after Gray got tackled at the line (Hawkins maybe breaks that).

The Rest

By this point North Texas was in full scramble mode. There were some good things by the defense, however. Tulane only scored one touchdown in the second half — the run back on the interception. They missed a field goal and punted a lot. Patrick Smith-Young had an incredible tackle on third down. Tulane emptied the backfield and put a RB in the outside of a bunch/stack look. The back is a late crosser. The idea is to get him in space underneath and let him run. Smith-Young made an incredible tackle that saved a first down at least, and a touchdown at worst. It didn’t ultimately matter in the game, but it is worth talking about anyway.

Miles Coleman made that huge grab on 4th and 9. The defense got better and picking out the Tulane play-action game. They had some corner-blitzes on and some Wesloski ones as well.

The game was all but lost after NT’s two scores got the team within ten. Tulane was driving and on 3rd-and-6 Retzlaff fired a ball straight to S’Maje Burrell. It went through his hands — that had pick-six all over it — and instead was completed. More bad luck (that it was caught and not incomplete). Instead of a punt, or a sure touchdown, Tulane drove for a FG. North Texas got the ball with basically no time left, and the game ended on the interception. Even if they score there, it would have required an onside kick.

Takeaways

Tulane gets a lot of credit for jumping on their opportunities. North Texas will lament their drops (Young, Burrell), misfires (Mestemaker) and questionable decisions (Morris) but also these are the same guys that got this team to this point. The injury to Hawkins played a gigantic role, as NT was down a play-maker but that’s football. Part of building a squad is building depth and being a team.

Of course it mattered, but this moment needed more from everyone else and it wasn’t there.

After the game, Morris said they’d need to prepare for the bowl game. That suggests that he will coach it. It is hard to take any coach’s word seriously anymore, but I do believe Morris at least meant that in the moment. The bowl predictions are all out and the American has some interesting options vs some ACC opponents. North Texas’ offense drew a lot of attention this year, and the record — 11-2!! — should help get the Mean Green into a quality bowl game. The bowl drought can be ended this year, folks.

I said on the show that getting this far means it was always going to hurt when it ended, if it didn’t mean a championship. Winning on Friday would have been sweet, but it would have also meant another big game on the horizon was coming. The problem with a playoff is that only one team ever feels great about the way it ends. This was a playoff game in all aspects, and NT came up short. What hurts is that there will be no league trophy either. Tulane, whatever happens in the CFP, will have that.

As a program, we can look at Tulane as something of an example. They changed coaches and players and still returned to the league title game. They had mixed success (lost last year at Army) in the game, and won it this year. This need not be so rare, folks.

Neal Brown has big shoes to fill, but that is just another way of saying “opportunity”

GMG