The Men's Team Have Dropped Three Straight

Lost by three to USF last night

I’ve seen the immediate criticism and second-guessing of decisions in the game. Those are interesting and really not the real reason this team lost. Jason Edwards attacked the basket looking to draw a foul and get a bucket. He has done this a bunch of times before. He didn’t draw the foul, and the ball rolled out of the cup. Game essentially over. There were missed free throws prior to this moment. That contributed to the loss.

Basketball is an accumulation game, and as they say about the NBA, a “make or miss league”. Now, college hoops isn’t nearly the same high quality level where it comes down to super highly skilled guy making a shot over an outstanding defender or not. These guys are semi-pro in time-commitment, but they are still limited in the number of hours of prep they can devote to the details.

From game one, this North Texas squad has lived on the edge. They needed a miss from Northern Iowa to win. They needed a hail mary to beat ECU. They were burned by two misses and one make vs FAU. The UAB game was a three-point loss in OT. Now this game was a one-possession game.

The problem isn’t NT’s execution in one-possession games, it is that they are in them in the first place. If the game comes down to one shot, it is essentially a 50/50 chance to win or lose. I don’t mean “make or miss” but the fact that NT has an effective FG% of 49.9 and a defensive EFG of 45.6. That’s for the game to be clear. In those crunch time moments in the last few games NT has been missing their starters (foul trouble, and injuries) and that means asking some other guys to execute at least at the same level as the starters.

The best hoops squads have tremendous point differential because they win about 2 out of every three possessions on both ends. NT is not there right now.

The reason for that is well, the whole point of coaching. NT is without Rubin Jones, who helps make more positive offensive possessions, and also a great, smart defender. Jones will get beat, sure, and will turn the ball over, of course. But the value he brings is not just about efficiency numbers and metrics, but in making sure NT doesn’t make stupid plays on either end of the floor.

I mean, he has an assist rate of 28% and a steal % of 3.3. If you need numbers, there you go.

This stretch is not all because of one guy, but it means NT is losing some possessions throughout the game and it puts a lot of pressure of the remaining squad to get things right late. This past week that has not worked out in our favor.

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Other criticism has been of individual players — Matt Stone is one — and he has been sitting for a large part of the last four games. He had 14 minutes vs USF, and I’m sure some of that was matchups and injuries.

Let’s do a round of Hot Sports Opinions;