Survive and Advance UNT’s High-Stakes Conference Tournament Week

The Most Fun Time of the Year!

Conference championship week is the most stressful time of the year for mid-major programs. You can be the best team in your league for weeks, maybe even months, and yet, it all comes down to three or four days. One slip-up and the entire season you built can feel like it meant nothing. That might sound harsh, because a great season is always something to be celebrated, but let’s be real the goal is the NCAA Tournament. Falling short, especially after an outstanding regular season, feels like disappointment.

For me, this week is always euphoric and miserable at the same time. The moments are unforgettable some for all the right reasons, some for all the wrong ones. North Texas has had a strong regular season by their standards. Now, the Mean Green just need to put together three great days and finish it off by cutting down the nets.

The Pressure is on North Texas

If any team in Fort Worth is facing the most pressure this week, it’s North Texas. Memphis is safely in the NCAA Tournament, and realistically, they can only hurt their resume. They aren’t playing for much except pride. Meanwhile, UNT is the No. 2 seed in a down American Athletic Conference. The league is the weakest it has ever been and probably will ever be. There are a few good players, but no great teams standing in UNT’s way.

(CBB Analytics Probabilities)

Another factor? The conference tournament is moving after this season. Having the home crowd advantage, playing in a familiar arena, and sleeping in their own beds those benefits are disappearing. The time is now. UNT has a team capable of winning this tournament, and they need to capitalize on the opportunity. Because of these reasons, I believe they are the team under the most pressure this week.

The Biggest X-Factor This Week

There are several ways to look at this, but the facts point directly to Atin Wright. Is he an X-factor, or does UNT simply need him to be great? Probably the latter. The numbers are staggering.

In Wins:

• 22 Points per 40 mins

• 45.7% from three

• 44.6% from two

• 59.1% Effective FG%

In Losses:

• 12.4 Points per 40 mins

• 28.3% from three

• 20.7% from two

• 34% Effective FG%

UNT needs Wright to be the guy he’s been over the last five games. If there was any positive takeaway from the Temple loss, it was Wright nearly carrying the team to an improbable victory after his epic Senior Night performance. He’s played in 16 March games throughout his career, and in four of the last six, he’s scored 20+ points. UNT has lacked that go-to guy all season. Wright was built for March.

But he’s not alone. Lorient must avoid foul trouble while remaining aggressive offensively. Again, his success isn’t an X-factor it’s a necessity. The real X-factor? Johnathan Massie.

Massie has been dealing with a toe injury for weeks and recently returned against Temple with minimal impact. How quickly he can get back to himself in Fort Worth will be key.

In Wins:

• 15.6 Points per 40 mins

• 46.4% FG%

• 37.5% from three

• 50.8% from two

• 52.6% Effective FG%

• 3.9 Paint Points per game

• 3.9 Defensive Rebounds per game

• 66.7% Shooting at the Rim

In Losses:

• 10.9 Points per 40 mins

• 29.3% FG%

• 18.2% from three

• 33.3% from two

• 31.7% Effective FG%

• 1.4 Paint Points per game

• 2.4 Defensive Rebounds per game

• 23.1% Shooting at the Rim

He’s made some of the biggest plays of the season. If UNT is going to make a deep run, they need Massie to be healthy and producing.

Has UNT Overachieved This Year?

There’s an argument that UNT has overachieved or simply benefited from a weak AAC. Evan Miya’s advanced metrics put UNT in the “Did a Ton with a Little” category.

(EvanMiya)

If you needed proof of the job Ross Hodge has done this year, this is it. Winning big at UNT requires maximizing every resource, and Hodge has done exactly that. But every great story has an ending. The question is—when does that happen? Does it happen this week, or can UNT keep overachieving into the NCAA Tournament?

UNT plays with a small margin for error, meaning it’s entirely possible that this ends with another NIT invite. Nobody wants that, but it’s a reality you should prepare for.

The Road to the Championship

For most of the season, I haven’t been a believer in UNT’s chances. I didn’t see them as a true contender. So, am I singing a different tune this week? People can change their opinions. Yes, I believe in UNT’s chances. The biggest obstacle is how motivated Memphis is. Beyond that, there are no unbeatable teams, no weaknesses that can't be overcome.

First Round: Temple or Tulsa

Temple just beat UNT and shot 44.8% from three against them this season. They didn’t have Mashburn Jr. in the latest matchup, but Gray played and UNT struggled to defend him. Temple has enough shot-making to make a run and end UNT’s season quickly.

Tulsa is another challenge. They lost a tough game to Temple but have been playing well in their last four games. If they match up with UNT, you can bet they won’t let Sissoko go for 27 again.

Potential Semifinals: UAB, UTSA, or ECU

UAB would be another war. UTSA is UNT’s kryptonite—their ability to force turnovers is a major problem for UNT. ECU plays physical defense and has two guys—RJ Felton and CJ Walker—who can carry a team on a run.

Title Game?

If UNT gets there, they’ll have earned it. But the road is full of landmines. That doesn’t mean the other teams don’t have flaws UNT can exploit. The Mean Green have won in multiple ways this year, and that should give fans hope.

Final Thoughts

My biggest concern outside of a scoring drought, which happens way too often—is defense in key moments. UNT’s clutch defensive efficiency rating has dropped from 116.6 to 122.6. Their defensive rebounding percentage has also fallen. We saw it against Temple—UNT had a chance to secure a rebound down one, failed, and Temple turned it into two free throws. That stuff matters in March. The NIT-winning team had a 101.7 defensive efficiency rating in clutch moments. The NCAA Tournament team had a 107.9. UNT has to hang its hat on defense. That’s the brand.

My advice? Take in the moments. This UNT team has delivered plenty of them this year. Hopefully, they deliver a few more this weekend in Fort Worth. Growing up, this time of year was always my favorite. It still is. But after going to UNT, the moments have become a little more painful. The realization that it’s over comes quickly. One minute you’re mapping out paths to the tournament, the next you’re wondering who’s even going to be on the roster next season.

No one expected UNT to be a No. 2 seed after last year’s losses. And yet, here they are. They’ve given us a reason to hope. So enjoy the ride.