One Split, One Puzzle, and Now Charlotte

Well that was quite the week.

If North Texas wanted to stay in position for the American tournament they needed to protect home court against two solid teams in Tulane and FAU. What they got was a split. They picked up a win they probably should not have against FAU and dropped a game they absolutely should have closed against Tulane.

That Tulane loss was maddening.

With 11:33 left in the second half UNT was up 59 to 44. Tulane’s win probability was 2.9 percent. Two point nine. The game was controlled. The boards were controlled. The pace was controlled. UNT looked like the better team.

And then it flipped.

Tulane grabbed eight offensive rebounds in the second half which is a massive number for one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. Strangely that only led to four second chance points. For me the real swing was turnovers. Tulane turned UNT mistakes into ten points in the second half. Once the tide shifted Robinson struggled to find a rotation that could stop it.

Watson’s minutes did not produce much. Hammer disappeared despite being a plus 14 in the game. Franklin and Horton combined for minus 19. That three spot continues to be a problem. Franklin was getting attacked defensively. It is not entirely his fault because he is often put in tough help situations, but some of his decisions and shot selection do not help. He is out there largely for defensive rebounding and stability.

That game just reinforced what we have said all year. This team is consistently inconsistent.

Then came FAU.

During the broadcast it was mentioned that Robinson believed UNT could turn FAU over at a good clip. That is what I thought would keep UNT in the game too. FAU had been playing solid defense in conference play but was one of the more turnover prone offenses in the league.

Instead FAU had its cleanest game of the season protecting the ball and still lost. That is wild.

What really jumped out was how well FAU attacked UNT with middle ball screen action. They got into the lane and made the extra pass. When UNT went hunting blocks FAU dumped it off. The result was 12 for 15 at the rim which is 80 percent. Nine of those twelve makes came in the second half.

FAU had everything working offensively at the rim and still could not overcome Stevenson’s second half explosion.

For UNT three guys had real positive impact games. Stevenson. Terrell Jr. Hammer Jr. I love Hammer’s intensity. He plays with edge. Over the last five games only those three have a positive offensive efficiency rating when on the floor.

When Hammer has been on the floor the last five games the offensive efficiency is 118 compared to 108 when he is off. Defensively it is 101.4 with him on the floor compared to 105.5 when he is off.

Now this is where the conversation gets tricky.

There are people who believe Hammer should be playing over Reece Robinson. I cannot go there. I like Reece. In the FAU game I thought he was officiated poorly which has happened more than once this year. But zooming out he is one of the few players I trust.

For the full season he is one of only four players with a positive net rating in both offensive and defensive efficiency when on the floor. He is second only to Stevenson in that category. He is the most important defensive piece on the roster. For the season the defensive efficiency is 8.3 points better when he is on the floor which is the best number on the team. Over the last five games that number jumps to 15.8.

So what do you do if you are Coach Robinson.

Hammer and Robinson are both fours. Arnett is another guy the staff clearly trusts. Stevenson and Terrell Jr are not coming off the floor. That leaves one perimeter spot and a rotation that is constantly being tweaked.

Over the last five games with at least ten possessions the best efficiency lineup has been Stevenson, Crosby, Horton, Stinson, and Hammer Jr. That group has played only nine minutes together. Offensive efficiency 143.9. Defensive efficiency 82.2. Is ten possessions enough to declare that the answer. Probably not. But the numbers are the numbers.

The most used lineup over the last five games is the starting lineup. The second most used is the starting lineup with Hammer in for Robinson. The starting lineup has been better defensively. The Hammer version has been better offensively.

Then I started asking what about playing Hammer and Robinson together.

For the full season they have 75 possessions together. Offensive efficiency 115.3. Defensive efficiency 76.4. That is elite defensively.

Another look that caught my eye was the three guard lineup with Stinson, Terrell Jr, and Stevenson. Offensively over the last five games that trio has produced a 163 efficiency rating. That is absurd. The issue is defense. With Stinson in that group the defensive efficiency is 122.2. He moves the ball and looks to facilitate. I like his offensive feel. But defensively he is still developing.

So who is the three man for this team.

You can count on five guys to some extent. Stevenson. Terrell Jr. Robinson. Hammer Jr. Arnett. Three of those five are front court players and they have played zero possessions together this season.

That leaves Watson, Franklin, Crosby, Horton, and Stinson to fill the gaps. None of those players has a positive offensive on/off impact for the full season. Only Watson has a positive defensive on/off impact.

If you are Robinson you are coaching situational basketball. Crosby and Stinson for offense. Watson and Horton for defense. Franklin for rebounding and familiarity. You are chasing matchups and hot hands every night.

Now we head to Charlotte.

Halton Arena has been brutal for UNT. The last win there was 2019 when Roosevelt Smart and Umoja Gibson combined to go 8 for 16 from three. Since then UNT is 0 and 3 there averaging 45 points per game and shooting 8 for 49 from three which is 16 percent. That is historically bad.

Would it not be ironic if this version of UNT suddenly had a decent shooting night there. I would laugh. I am not betting on it.

What we are getting is good on good and bad on bad.

Aaron Fearne has always come across as a strong tactician. In the past he has had success dissecting UNT defenses. This is a different defensive style though. Charlotte is third in offensive efficiency in conference play at 113 but over the last five games that number has dipped to 104. In their losses this season their offensive efficiency is 104.6. They are 1 and 4 over their last five. There is a connection there.

Turnovers could be key. Charlotte has committed 64 turnovers over the last five games which is 12.8 per game. UNT thrives on that.

Charlotte does not live at the free throw line either. Even in wins their free throw rate is lower than the rate UNT typically allows in losses. UNT has also improved in not fouling the last five games.

The concern as always is defensive rebounding. UNT has allowed about ten offensive rebounds per game over the last five. In losses that number jumps to 13.1. Charlotte over the last five is grabbing ten offensive boards per game and in wins that number is 12.1. They are big. Two 6 foot 10 players and a 7 foot 2 in the front court. Even their guards have size. Antone Bonke is fifth in the conference in rebounds per game.

Then there is the three point chess match.

Charlotte is shooting 36 percent from three in conference play but just 32.8 percent in their recent stretch. UNT is allowing 34.7 percent over the last five. UNT pressures aggressively on the perimeter but can give up clean looks with ball movement. 87.4 percent of the threes they allow are assisted.

Charlotte values the three. In wins they shoot 41 percent with a three point attempt rate of 43.7 percent. In losses they shoot 31 percent with a three point attempt rate of 44.4 percent. They are taking threes regardless. The question is whether UNT can force them into contested twos instead of rhythm catch and shoot threes.

Then comes UAB on Sunday. It was tight in Denton. I would expect another close one but we will see how we feel after Charlotte.

Three games left. Charlotte. UAB. Rice.

UNT sits ninth and is in solid position to finish above the bottom three. Rice is the only real threat to knock them out of the tournament field. Rice is 5 and 9 with games left against USF, Temple, UNT, and UTSA. They are projected to win one of those.

If both teams lose the games they are projected to lose UNT would finish 8 and 10 and Rice 6 and 12 which likely locks UNT into the ten seed. If UNT wins out they could climb to the four or five seed. Teamrankings puts that at 2.8 percent. The most likely outcome is the nine seed at 18 percent followed closely by the six seed at 17.1 percent.

The six through ten range feels like destiny.

In past seasons you knew who was a nightmare matchup for UNT. This year I do not have that sense. Tulsa and USF are good but not untouchable. UNT lost to USF by four at home and split with Tulsa. That second Tulsa game unraveled late but UNT was up three with six minutes left before losing by sixteen.

If UNT can sneak into the tournament and avoid playing on the first day as a seven through ten seed then there is a path to making noise. If they are playing Wednesday it becomes almost impossible.

That is where we are. A team with clear flaws. A roster puzzle that still does not have a clean answer. A conference that is wide open. And three games left to define the path.

As frustrating as it has been, it is still right there in front of them.