North Texas Basketball at the Crossroads

A post from Greg

You know I have not written one thing about this year’s team. No preview. No breakdown. Nothing. And honestly it has been hard to get excited about what we have watched.

It has not been pretty. It has been a frustrating cycle of inconsistent basketball. We have seen moments where you lean forward in your chair and think okay here we go. Then five minutes later you are staring at the screen wondering how this is the same group. That is the tension of this season. Are we watching a team turning the corner or a team about to slide right back down?

Let us lay it out.

North Texas sits at 6 and 7 in conference play, tied for ninth with a team they see this Sunday. They just put together a dominating win over a lifeless UTSA squad and pulled off solid comeback wins against Memphis and Temple. Those three wins matter. In the newly formatted American tournament where only ten teams get in, those games have them back in the mix.

And here is the wild part. The last five games of the season are against teams right next to UNT in the standings. In a conference that is more wide open than it has been in years, there is a scenario where UNT wins out and climbs as high as fourth. Is that likely? Probably not. The American this year has no true juggernaut and chaos feels more probable than chalk. Most likely this team finishes somewhere between seventh and tenth. That means five games in five days to win the conference tournament. That is a brutal task for anyone. It is even tougher when you are consistently inconsistent and reliant on defensive intensity to generate offense.

Now we have to talk about the numbers.

This is shaping up to be one of the worst three point shooting seasons since the 2001 Vic Trilli year when UNT went 2 and 24. This team is shooting 28 percent from three overall and 25.4 percent in conference play. That is not just bad. That is crippling.

What makes it more puzzling is that UNT is actually very good at getting to the rim. They are top 80 nationally in field goal attempts at the rim per game. They can collapse a defense. They can drive it. They can force help. Yet they cannot convert open threes.

Take the straight on three from the top of the key. One of the cleanest looks in basketball. UNT is shooting 18.7 percent from that spot. Last year they shot 40.4 percent. In conference play this year that number is 14 percent. Fourteen. That is almost unfathomable.

There is one small ray of light. They are shooting 45.5 percent from the left corner along the baseline. That makes sense schematically. When you are a heavy driving team, the help often comes from that corner defender. Stevenson is hitting 42.3 percent from the corner. That should be emphasized. That should be hunted.

This all ties back to roster construction. Robinson’s Cleveland State teams never really prioritized the three. He did not load up on shooters. Crosby is probably the best shooter on this roster. McClendon being hurt has been a massive blow. He was supposed to be one of the main cogs in the offense and a reliable three point threat.

Mid major teams do not make the NCAA tournament shooting below 30 percent from three. Grand Canyon last year shot 31.3 percent. Troy shot 30.1 percent. San Diego State as a five seed shot 31.5 percent the year before. Those are not elite numbers. But they are north of 30.

And here is the problem. North Texas is not just struggling from three. They are shooting 47.8 percent from two, which ranks around 310th nationally. If you are going to struggle from deep, you cannot also be inefficient inside the arc.

The half court numbers are brutal. Their field goal percentage in half court sets ranks 358th in the country. Their mid range field goal percentage ranks 361st. That is bottom tier. You cannot contend in this league with that profile.

So how does this team survive?

Defense.

You know it because you have watched them. They are elite at generating turnovers. Top ten nationally in steal percentage and turnover percentage. That is real. That is identity level stuff.

Those turnovers fuel transition. UNT takes 14.4 percent of its field goal attempts in transition, which ranks 86th nationally. Over the last five games that number jumps to 18.9 percent. In wins it is 14.9 percent. Their field goal percentage in transition is 64 percent, which ranks 29th nationally. They get 19.9 percent of their points on the fast break, about 13.6 points per game.

They are going to get theirs in transition. That part of the formula is stable.

The swing factor is defensive rebounding.

Coming into the season this was a concern. Robinson’s Cleveland State teams consistently struggled on the defensive glass. That has followed him. UNT ranks 317th in defensive rebound percentage. Opponents get 18 percent of their points on second chance opportunities. That is near the bottom nationally. Opponents are shooting 73.6 percent on putbacks, ranking 362nd in the country. They are 325th in attempted putbacks allowed.

But the split tells the story.

In wins, opponents’ offensive rebound percentage drops to 29.1 percent. In losses it balloons to 40 percent. Opponents shoot 65 percent on putbacks in wins versus 80.4 percent in losses. When UNT clears the defensive glass, they look like a completely different team.

It is not complicated. When they defend, force turnovers, and finish possessions with a rebound, they can beat anyone in this league. When they give up second chances, the math does not work.

Now we have to talk about Robinson.

Year one was always going to be loud. Expectations at North Texas are different now. The Grant McCasland and Hodge era raised the floor. Seeing what Matt Braeuer is doing at SFA only adds fuel. He is winning and will absolutely be on athletic directors’ radars this offseason. Could he have been the hire here? It’s irrelevant now and we have to move on.

Does Robinson deserve year two? Yes. He does. I will give him a pass for the turbulence of year one. What I will not do is call this a complete rebuild. He brought four players from his previous team. They are all starting. He has resources here. This is not a shoestring operation. The idea that you need a Memphis or South Florida level budget to win this league feels outdated. Coaches have to piece together rosters that fit, not just collect talent.

This is where I think year one missed.

If you are going to play with a rim protecting five who hunts blocks, you need elite defensive rebounding at the four and from your guards. If you have two strong downhill drivers, you need a stretch four or wing that spaces the floor and punishes help. Otherwise you end up with the cramped driving lanes we have watched all season.

Year two has to be about balance. Keep the defensive identity. Keep the turnover pressure. But go into the portal with a clear blueprint. Add shooting. Add rebounding. Add spacing that complements what you already do well.

So where does that leave us?

This team is flawed. The shooting numbers are rough. The half court offense is near the bottom nationally. The defensive rebounding is a glaring weakness.

But the defensive pressure is elite. The transition efficiency is real. The recent wins matter. And the standings are tight.

We are not watching a finished product. We are watching a team at a fork in the road. If they clean the glass and find even modest improvement from three, they can climb. If the shooting and rebounding trends hold, they are looking at a short stay in March.

Either way, these last five games are going to tell us exactly who this team is. And for the first time all year, that feels worth watching.