March Arrives and the Final Turn of the Season

The calendar has turned to March, the greatest time of the year.

This time of year always brings me a lot of joy. Lately one of my favorite moments has been hearing my son shooting baskets in his room yelling “Onions” after every made shot in honor of Bill Raftery. It makes me smile every single time. It is one of those small things that reminds you why this month feels different.

Now we are approaching the end game of the inaugural season for Daniyal Robinson.

Last week felt like another spin through the same familiar cycle for North Texas. Another split. UNT dropped a close one at Charlotte that was right there for the taking and then turned around and stole a road win against UAB.

That pretty much sums up this season.

The crazy part is how both games unfolded. In the loss at Charlotte, UNT held a ten point lead with 10:46 left in the second half and a win probability of 87.8 percent. The game felt firmly in hand.

Then two days later in the win at UAB, UNT saw their win probability dip all the way down to 11.8 percent with 19:42 remaining in the second half before battling back.

That is the same pattern we talked about last week.

This team lives in the margins.

I wanted to take a closer look at those minimum win probabilities. UNT has eight conference victories so far. I am going to set aside the two UTSA games because, frankly, UTSA has been one of the weakest teams in the league and UNT controlled those games from start to finish.

If you look at the other six conference wins, UNT had an average minimum win probability of just 21.7 percent during those games. In other words, they were on the ropes at some point in most of their victories.

Now flip that perspective.

In their eight conference losses, UNT reached an average win probability of 67 percent. If you remove the first Memphis game and the Wichita State game where UNT never really felt competitive, the number jumps all the way to 93.1 percent in the other six losses.

Let that sink in.

This team has been right there. They have had the lead. They have had the control. They have had the point in the game where it felt like things were about to close out.

But good teams find ways to win those games and struggling teams find ways to let them slip away. Sometimes the difference really is that simple.

We looked at clutch statistics last year, defined as the final five minutes of a game when the score is within six points. Those numbers tell a story here as well.

UNT’s three point shooting drops from an already poor 29.1 percent on the season to an abysmal 20.9 percent in clutch situations. Just typing that number out makes you shake your head.

Free throws are another area fans often point to in those moments. UNT shoots 70.7 percent from the line overall this season. In clutch situations they are actually slightly better at 72.3 percent. That difference is small enough that it is probably more perception than reality.

Where the real issue shows up again is defensive rebounding.

For the season UNT’s defensive rebound percentage sits at 67.2 percent. In clutch situations that number drops to 54.5 percent. That is a massive difference and it creates extra possessions at the worst possible time. We saw it again play out in the closing moments against Charlotte.

A few quick thoughts on the two games themselves.

Against UAB the biggest difference between the two halves was UNT’s ability to finish at the rim. In the first half they went 6 for 14 at the rim. In the second half that improved to 12 for 18. UAB experienced the opposite swing. They were 9 for 12 at the rim in the first half and only 4 for 10 in the second.

UNT defended well throughout the game but I really think the lineup combination of Robinson and Hammer made the biggest impact. In 34 possessions together that duo posted an offensive efficiency rating of 115.9 and a defensive efficiency rating of 72.6.

Reece Robinson finished as a plus 12 and Hammer was a plus 7.

Franklin also knocked down a huge three late in the game to help seal the win. That made him the hot hand option at the three spot in that moment. Interestingly, in his career he has only made multiple three pointers in a game three times and his team won each of those games.

If that three spot can give UNT even a modest offensive lift it changes the equation for this team. If Franklin could simply become a 35 percent three point shooter it would drastically improve the spacing for this offense.

The Charlotte loss was frustrating in a different way.

Hammer came up with a steal in the final seconds and stepped to the line with a chance to put UNT ahead by three. The front end of the one and one did not fall. Charlotte went down the floor got an offensive rebound and made both of their free throws to win the game.

In the end that game came down to stops.

Charlotte shot above 70 percent from two point range in both halves. They went 10 for 11 at the rim. UNT actually shot extremely well at the rim themselves, going 10 for 12. UNT even made eleven three pointers. The Mean Green are now 8 and 3 this season when their three point attempt rate is above 33 percent.

Charlotte simply made their shots and got to the free throw line more often. UNT struggled to generate those same free throw opportunities. Once again they played well enough to win but could not close the door.

Now we move into the final week of the regular season.

UNT has just one game remaining, but ten other conference games are still left on the schedule around the league. There is still a surprising amount of movement possible in the standings.

UNT still has a chance to climb to the six seed and earn a bye in the conference tournament. According to CBB Analytics that outcome carries a 25.9 percent probability. The most likely finish right now is the seven seed at 35.8 percent. There is still a small 4.3 percent chance that UNT could miss the conference tournament altogether.

If UNT wins tonight and the rest of the favorites hold serve, the most likely outcome is the six seed. That bye would give UNT what I believe is a legitimate outside chance of making a run in the tournament.

If you flip the result and give UNT a loss tonight, the projection shifts toward the ten seed.

There are still too many toss up games around the conference to confidently predict the final standings. That feels strange to say with only one game remaining, but when seven teams are clustered together in the middle of the standings it creates a lot of uncertainty.

My best guess is that UNT lands at the six seed.

Tonight brings a rematch with Rice.

Earlier this season UNT had that game essentially wrapped up before multiple missed free throws in the closing seconds allowed Rice to escape with the win. On paper this is a game UNT should win.

But this season has conditioned fans to expect anything.

Every time UNT earns a strong victory or gives fans a little reason to believe, the next game seems to swing in the opposite direction. Optimism builds and then the next result brings the pitchforks back out.

So I think a lot of people are sitting here today half expecting UNT to lose simply because that has been the rhythm of the season.

Rice still has life in the race for the conference tournament, so they will be fighting hard. UNT will have to match that energy. One major key will be the offensive glass. Rice grabbed 26 offensive rebounds in the first meeting. That cannot happen again. Having Hammer available tonight should help since he did not play in that game.

I will have more thoughts later on UNT’s tournament chances and Robinson’s first season as a whole. I have seen some comparisons to previous coaching eras floating around. One comment that made me laugh was someone saying they do not know what this team runs offensively.

Have you watched this team?

They might be one of the most predictable teams I have seen. You can usually tell exactly where the ball is going. The game scripts feel predictable as well. If UNT is struggling early you almost expect them to claw back and make the game close. If they build a comfortable lead you start bracing for a scoring drought and a comeback from the other side.

At the very least it keeps things interesting.

But this is also the beauty of March.

Teams can become something different this time of year. The conference tournament is its own season. What happened during the regular season does not have to define what happens next.

Every year someone becomes a hero.

That is what makes this month special.

So strap in. It might be a short ride. It might be a bumpy one. Or it could become something none of us saw coming.

That last part is up to this team now.