First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs Texas State Preview

Let's do this thing.

January 3, 2025・3pm CT・ESPN・MGRN・Dallas, TX・Ford Stadium (32K)

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GJ Kinne is a former Tulsa QB, spent some time in the NFL, and has coached with some good offensive minds. He spent some time at the new burgeoning incubator for offense that is UIW in San Antonio, and moved up to San Marcos to revitalize Texas State.

His offense is a mix of Air Raid stuff, the now de rigueur spread-to-run stuff, and the latest-and-greatest veer-and-shoot stuff. The latter is characterized by supremely wide splits from the wideouts and a power look from the remaining seven guys or so.

The idea is the have the defense declare who and what aspect of the offensive attack they will defend. Will they put one more guy to the passing sides (typical match ideas) or will they dedicate more to the the run? The Veer part of the nomenclature is about the running aspect. The Briles tree had a lot of the QB run game as part of the run attack. Also, there were lots of pulling lineman and things, not just the original zone runs. The Shoot part comes from the passing game — the old Run 'n' Shoot which relied heavily on option routes from the wideouts. In the old and the new versions of this the wideouts are relied upon to find grass and get open. When it works, it looks like Baylor of the early 2010s, and their 700+ yards of offense.

CFI

The Veer & Shoot as practiced by Tennessee and others (NT ran some aspects of it under Seth LIttrell) is finding that it isn’t as obviously powerful as it once was. Defensive coaches are finding that if you can get over the top on the dangerous streak routes, you can limit the run game enough and force some punts.

You see the wide splits in this look below. Texas State completed a deep toss to the top of the screen on a double move. The corner got beat pretty badly on a simple move, really. Jordan McCloud can sling the ball, and is happy to stand tall in the pocked and find his guys. He also can scoot, which is why this offense moves so well.

Oh they’ll do some fake tosses and do some Counter the other way out of some wildcat looks.

The thing to takeaway is that they have a well-coached, and explosive offense. Mack Leftwich was poached by Texas Tech to coordinate their offense. Still, expect the same kind of eye-candy, motion, things that build off what you think their tendencies are. For example, they like a rub route from empty to the two-receiver side. Last season they would run a little slant and a corner route to free that up. Against Louisiana, they did the same thing but the corner route ran a zig and came back underneath.

Push motion by the back to the left? Throw the WR screen to the right. It is clever stuff and you’ll recognize a lot of similarities to the NT offense. They have a seemingly endless number of scat-back looking dudes at wide receiver and running back. The good news is that at least one dangerous guy is in the portal so will not play. The bad news is that Mahdi would also caught the ball up sometimes.

All the danger of their offense acknowledged, Texas State would get into some stalled out drives thanks to drops, turnovers, holding on to the ball too long and the usual stuff.

Defensively, they operate out of a 4-2-5, and were very good at getting sacks, and stops. They allowed only 24.3 per game, and held UTSA to 10 while holding them to under 4-yards per play. They can create turnovers and negative plays. They kept them in games when the offense wasn’t clicking. They got 8 tackles for loss against now-10th ranked and current Big 12 champ Arizona State.

A long story short: Texas St is a good squad and deserves the point spread in their favor.

North Texas

Okay so you have’t seen North Texas in a months’ time. We still run an Air Raid system, with modifications. You will see much more TE stuff, much more running, and a few aspects of the Veer & Shoot. NT will be starting true freshman Drew Mestemaker at QB, after Chandler Morris transferred to Virginia. The main threat there for a while was DT Sheffield. He’s also gone. He left for Rutgers (???).

So the offensive line is still patchwork. The running back room is still threadbare. The receiver room is still young. The QB is a true freshman. The ideas? Well they are still exciting and clever but the question will always be “Can we execute?”

As the year progressed we saw fewer RPOs, fewer deep tosses, and more screens and inside zones. The internet complained, but if you looked closely you saw a squad that was limited and a QB whose arm was hurting. So, who do you throw the ball to? The line had trouble creating holes, the WRs couldn’t get too much separation nor could they consistently catch. Okay so how do you move the ball? The last few games that was just hoping to pop a run by Shane Porter or McGill.

The good news is that the month or so between the last game has provided some time to heal, some time to reflect, and some time to practice. I expect the squad to be a little more crisp simply for the fact that everyone is a little healthier. We obviously would rather have Chandler Morris but I am excited about Drew Mestemaker. He’s talented, he’s hungry, and he’s had a season to develop.

More intriguing to me is the defense lining up in a 4-3. That is the depth chart suggestion. We know that the new staff will be lining up with a four-man front. Brian Odom is a 3-4 guy, but there are a lot of broad similarities. You could, for example, line up in a the 3-4 Under that is indistinguishable from a 4-3 Under in alignment. The real differences are in personnel and repetitions. I think Dawkins and Shipley have been good in spots, but working as true rush ends might open up some new territory for them. My guesstimate is that this is just a listing thing, as Shipley played a Jack/Bandit role when Odom was the sole interim DC. Again, there is only slightest difference as Shipley will likely be a standup pass rusher.

NT is thinner at the safety position than they thought they would be. They started with high hopes, and Isheem Young, BJ Allen, David Spruills to be supported by Jayden Smith, Evan Jackson, and Jayven Anderson. Now? Well Young is hurt, Spruills is gone, and Anderson is in the portal. Smith has been good, Jackson also but both have been hurt. So Gant, Hammonds and other young guys have had to step up.

Getting to focus on one team is good and bad. Both squads are doing some self-scouting so if — as is the defensive vogue — you think you know how the line will shade when they get a pressure look, you maybe have to think again.

“You think that I think that you think that I think I will go this way” You know how it is. Well drilled defenses are able to absorb new information and adapt easier than lesser ones. NT is in the latter category. It is harder to add new things and I expect Texas State to get some big yards in some drives. That said, this is the last game for a lot of quality players and I think we will see the best version from some of the better guys — Brown, Dawkins, Smith, Jordan Brown, Texada. The outgoing defensive coaches will also want to make a good impression: Gary, Payne, Jennings.

The Game

These things are supposed to be fun. It is great that (1) there is a bowl game in our backyards and (2) we can get there. These things were always glorified money-grabbing exhibition games that gained some extra importance simply because the powers of the game refused to do a playoff. Now that we have a (modified) playoff, these games are losing whatever shine they have. That’s fine. They are still fun. I like to see my favorite team play in a game against a solid team. As it goes, it is one of the better ways to generate a good matchup. Texas State was a fun team this year! North Texas can score points! Both schools are within traveling distance to this one. Everyone wins (except the loser).

The AAC has been kicking ass — 6-1 so far this bowl season.

2024 Results:

• Memphis 42, West Virginia 37

• Florida 33, Tulane 8

• UTSA 44, Coastal Carolina 15

• South Florida 41, San Jose State 39

• Navy 21, Oklahoma 20

• East Carolina 26, NC State 21

• Army 27, Louisiana Tech 6

For me, the most impressive two were Memphis over WVU, Navy over Oklahoma, and ECU over NC State. Big P4 wins there. NT beating TXST as a big underdog would be pretty good as well but overall not as impressive to the nation. So be it. We don’t want to be the only one to lose to a G6.

MGN will be in attendance, and will arrive the day before. Good times will be had. Let’s do this. I rushed the field for the 2014 HOD Bowl and will be on the field for this one, but I won’t be rushing anything. I won’t shame you if you do. GMG