We’ll save you a little suspense. Here be the prediction:
MGN says 51 - 35 North Texas.
350 4 touchdowns for QB Tayven Jackson
136 2 touchdowns for Jahiem White
121 1 touchdown for Justin Stevenson
1 interception, 3 sacks for the defense.
Is this reasonable? Buddy, we are talking college football here. Nothing is reasonable. Anything can happen. Its a sport wherein Florida Atlantic, a team averaging 110+ yards of rushing coming into a game, can explode for 300+. How?
It’s college football.
Here’s what we know: it is a rivalry game, but it is not as heated as the longer-term ones. These teams have played 15 times since 2013, and UTSA has won 8. Two came in one season. The second being the conference title game. Of all the games the 2013 and the 2022 league title game hurt the most.
The best win is undoubtedly 45-23 in Denton, in 2021. UTSA had a CFP ranking and NT clinched bowl-eligibility.
UTSA has had their best coach in the short program history in Jeff Traylor since 2020. That coincides with a 5-2 record against the Mean Green, including 4-0 in the Alamodome. North Texas is 1-6 in San Antonio, dropping some heartbreakers, and also having some just plain poor efforts. In 2024, Shane Porter ran for 193 yards and three scores but the defense was blitzed for 681 yards as NT was blown out.
In 2025, Drew Mestemaker and company won in blowout fashion as UTSA fumbled the ball away three times.
Jeff Traylor is very good at home. We mentioned the record vs NT, but he’s also 27-1 at home vs conference opponents. That is across C-USA and the American. It is Homecoming for the Roadrunners. They are 11-4 all-time in homecoming games, including 6-0 under Jeff Traylor.
More stats from their game notes:
Since 2020, the Roadrunners boast a 27-1 (.964) home record against league opponents
— 25-1 in regular season conference contests and 2-0 in conference championship games hosted at the Alamodome — the most home victories against league foes among FBS teams during that timeframe.
• Under Jeff Traylor, the Roadrunners are 18-6 (.750) in the month of November.
• UTSA is 19-8 (.704) following a loss under Jeff Traylor.
The loss note is interesting because Florida Atlantic walloped the Roadrunners in Boca Raton (another place in which NT has had nightmares) 60-29 with 339 on the ground. They no-doubt would have had more but for the fact that they started with short yardage so often. Traylor talked up how they “kept up” with them early but noted the starting position was not great.
That said, here are some things about our team: NT is 5-0 in the league — first time since 2004. Neal Brown has his charges riding a 6-game win streak. North Texas has won 11 consecutive regular-season conference games, its longest such streak since 2005, and its 12 conference victories over the past two seasons lead the American.
North Texas once again boasts one of the nation’s most productive offenses, leading the FBS in total offense (534.7) and ranking among the national leaders in scoring (44.7, second) and passing offense (343.8, second). The Mean Greenhave scored at least 40 points in seven games this season, including each of their past six victories.
Also this:
North Texas is on the verge of producing a 3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher, and 1,000-yard receiver in the same season for the third time in four years, a feat the program had never accomplished before 2023.
When Eric Morris had Rogers/Adeyi/Maclin do it, it was fun. Then Meste/Hawkins/Young did it. Now? Well, we are on the verge of seeing Jackson/White/Stevenson do the same. North Texas is where you go for Offense. Todd Dodge would be proud.
A win here would go a long way toward securing the home field advantage for the league title game. A loss would complicate things, giving UTSA the head-to-head tiebreaker for 1-loss teams, and pitting North Texas vs Memphis for the other spot.
Basically this:
WIN? Likely American Title game scenario: North Texas vs Memphis/UTSA in Denton.
LOSS? Likely American Title game scenario UTSA/Memphis/North Texas in San Antonio or Memphis depending on the tiebreaker.
League tiebreakers:
Head to head — if you played and you won? You get the tiebreaker.
CFP — UNT, UTSA, and Memphis are not ranked
Composite of four advanced rankings — No telling where a loss would put us, but we’d need to be scoreboard watching.
So what to do? Win.
North Texas Defense: Things To Watch
UTSA has been hit-or-miss offensively all year. The offense is about the run game supplemented with play-action and Quarterback roll-outs. QB Owen McCown is a left-handed, experienced, product of a quarterback family. He knows the position even if he doesn’t have clear Next-Level physical abilities.1 In their comeback win over Navy, they put five wideouts into the passing pattern early, but Navy brought heavy pressure. They adjusted by going heavier, keeping guys in to block and running play-action. They found success in so doing, but McCown still had to avoid some free rushers to find guys downfield.
He is sacked about 5% per dropback (mid-pack in the nation) whereas Tayven Jackson is sacked about 2% (top-5)
They’ve used a jumbo package with a direct snap to the back in short yardage with success. I suspect that inspired FAU a bit, as suddenly last Thursday the Owls had a jumbo/wildcat look with their big QB who bullied his way in on short yardage with success. That’s not super relevant other than to say that UTSA beat Navy on the strength of two touchdown drives in the 4th quarter. They avoided sacks — like McCown side-stepped a backer in his face — and ran the ball well by getting a ton of push.
Florida Atlantic did not let that happen. UTSA scored 29, but their run game couldn’t do much. The first series after half time (UTSA down 22-43) they tried Power into the line but FAU destroys that with great defensive tackle play. They try play-action, seven-protection and the throw hits the defender’s helmet because it was short. On third down, they try a little swing pass and that is blown up, fumble forced.
Watching FAU, Navy, and Rice consistently get to McCown — and make him move and throw on the run is encouraging for the North Texas defense. The Mean Green have been good at getting to the QB. FAU threw the ball ridiculously well, but they also get the ball out so quickly and with accuracy that really the best option is to line up on man coverage.
Concerning for NT is that both Veltkamp and McCown are able to move in the pocket. FAU’s QB stood tall, and ran his offense so well that it was difficult to be effective.
Summing it up
UTSA likes to run the ball, and play-fake off of that with big protection. On passing downs, they run some crossers and have some quick guys that can find space. They also love their speedy running back. Overall, if the defensive line can win first down, I feel pretty good. Their quarterback play-actioning on third and medium and running around looking for a guy coming up late is how you lose this game. He can roll right and left, and their offense has enough motion and eye-candy to catch someone looking in the wrong direction. FAU’s pass game is better, Tulsa’s offense has more motion. North Texas got enough stops against both to have me feeling good.
The secret here may be in stealing possessions. Jeff Traylor stole a possession against Navy by kicking an onside. His group were limited by starting inside their own 10 early. Look for some fakes on kicking downs, etc.
North Texas Offense: Things To Watch
The Mean Green boast the most explosive offense in the league. Tayven Jackson, when he has time, is very good. When he has a clean pocket (pretty often), he delivers for North Texas often. (McCown doesn’t have a clean pocket as often, as I said and as you can see from this chart).
Watching a lot of UTSA on film, I was used to the QB scrambling and sort of running for his life. Going back to NT film, I was struck with how little Tayven Jackson has had to run for his life. FAU got to UTSA early and often and put him on the ground. UTSA’s interior line play was poor. North Texas? Well Rice and FAU were handled and Tavyen Jackson was looking down field with a clean pocket and not a care in the world. When the coverage locked things up? Well he casually scrambled.
The North Texas line push was good to excellent. Jahiem White has huge creases and doesn’t get hit in the backfield often. That’s firstly a credit to the line, and secondly to him for reading things. Also, Neal Brown dialing up some looks to get away from being predictable.
A concern I have is that Tayven Jackson had the yips vs Rice. He hasn’t felt a lot of pressure in his NT career — he was notably calm after UNLV — and in recent weeks with a little more focus on him, he has been a little less crisp. Some of that is maybe due to his wide out corps being hurt. Kyle Koch, a guy who has shown brightly in recent weeks, was out last week. Justin Stevenson has been great, but a clear number two is missing. Koch was stepping into that role.
Josiah Martin was and is often injured. Corri Milliner was supposed to be UNT’s number one target, but he has been hurt. Josiah Martin is supposed to be the speedy threat. He’s been hurt. Baron Tipton and Dalton Carnes have been elevated in importance and have played well. Playing well in a tough environment is a challenge, however.
Max Reese, and Brec Long, the tight ends, have been great. Long has caught a lot of play-action over routes, while Reese has been incredible as a third-down option and even in the red zone. The only deep threat has been Justin Stevenson, however, and that puts a lot of pressure on him. North Texas has been very good and finding him for deep shots against most everyone.
Look for how the line protects Jackson. He hasn’t been pressured too often, but when he’s not been great it has been on the road (Texas State, Tulsa)2 and when he has pressure in his face. Look for Neal Brown to find some high-percentage throws for his guys early.
Sum it up
Look for Jahiem White to go off. UTSA has been poor stopping the run, and while they will no doubt have been challenged this week in practice for having allowed 300+ yards vs FAU, Jahiem White is too fast and too shifty to stop. Texas State and others have sold out to stop the White run game, and that’s how Jackson is able to find guys over the top. The game plan is not super complicated — If they sell out to stop Jahiem, throw it over their heads (RPOs, play-action, max-protect stuff). If they put two-high safeties out there? Well, give it to Jahiem and cue up the fight song.
Predictions and Final Thoughts
I said it up top:
MGN says 51 - 35 North Texas.
350 4 touchdowns for QB Tayven Jackson
136 2 touchdowns for Jahiem White
121 1 touchdown for Justin Stevenson
1 interception, 3 sacks for the defense.
Why? Well I’m tired of the sad-sack, defeatist attitude. I saw a podcast say “we lose, because I’ve been hurt before.” I was disgusted. Sports fandom is PAIN, my dude. That is why it is so delicious to win.
North Texas has not had a team this good enter the Alamodome since 2018 — Mason Fine’s junior year. Every other squad had major, glaring holes and were carrying a bagful of losses or a coach with major gaps in their resumé. North Texas is bringing the best offense in the league, a good defensive line with experienced corners, and a G6-league winning coach. It’s okay to believe.
Go Mean Green!
I’ve never seen him make a throw where I think “that’s an NFL throw right there.” Whereas we saw Mestemaker do that in pretty much every game.
I say ‘not great’ but I mostly mean turnovers. He threw for 400+ vs Texas State.