This is a long email with some screenshots. It is probably best read on the MGN site. FYI.
This is not a rivalry game, but it could be. SMU is the most-played series at 43 games1. Whereas the Safeway Bowl we are the on the short end (we’ll get ‘em next time!) in the Normal Bowl(?) North Texas is 28-3-7. The last loss of course coming in the debut of one Drew Mestemaker in the First Responder Bowl 2.
September 19, 2026 • 11:00am • TV: USA • Radio: MGRN (Sirius XM 263) • San Marcos, Texas • UFCU Stadium (28,000)
I never got the sense that people care about the result of this game. Texas State and UTSA have more energy. No one in real life is talking too excitedly about this game. That’s a shame, because it could be fun.
What’s fun is that most people think of the Texas State Armadillos of Necessary Roughness (1991) fame, the then-fictional school wore green and played at Fouts, the home of the Mean Green. UNT was prominently displayed throughout the film.
I say we have an Armadillo Trophy and pass it around.
College Football is big business. Its tough. It is exhausting. It is also supposed to be fun.
You know what is fun? Winning. Winning is very fun.
Last Week:
North Texas thrashed UNLV in Denton, on the hottest day in the history of ever3 and did so as a home underdog. Texas State briefly held a lead in a similarly hot day in San Marcos against the Roadrunners and then promptly allowed UTSA to come back and win.
Is This A Big Game?
For North Texas, expectations were pretty low nationally and even regionally. Only Neal Brown has been talking up the team, and even then it is difficult to distinguish between real confidence and coach-speak. Texas State and UNLV were pre-season dark horses for G6 playoff spots and NT was returning no-one. So playing Indiana well through three quarters and blowing the mustache off Hey Reb! is a pretty good start. Going into the September 26th matchup against FCS Houston Christian (neé Houston Baptist) at 2-1 is a pretty enticing reward for a good effort on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Texas State GJ Kinne is staring down the possibility of 0-3. Getting dominated by Arch Manning’s Texas is understandable, but blowing a rivalry game lead and losing is not. Now with a (beatable) NT coming to town this is nearly a must-win. That of course, depends on what you think of Kinne’s time. Texas State’s trajectory has been up in his four seasons. Kinne has put up a 23-18 record, which is good for 2nd all time in wining percentage (David Bailiff — perennially underrated coach) and is fourth all time at TxSt in total wins behind Dennis Franchione’s 39.
It seemed very difficult to win in San Marcos until Kinne came to town. He’s won three straight bowl games for the program. They hadn’t been to one in 40 years before he won two straight First Responders (Rice, NT) and one Armed Forces (Rice).
I doubt he feels much pressure, but this is a big season for the program. They moved to the Pac-12 — something that former NT coach derided (“its not the same league that it was”) and starting out winless is not ideal.
Defending The Bobcats
Coming into this season I talked with some people around the program. They were very excited about Brad Jackson, who put up nearly 4K yards of offense and 38 scores last year. He is a 6-foot, 200lb QB who is a danger on the run. He had 700+ yards and 17 scores on 174 carries last year.
On film the first thing I noticed was how large their offensive line was. Texas State ran for 200+ yards against UTSA. They’ve historically been good running the ball, and just a good offense overall. Kinne runs a similar system to Eric Morris and for a while people were comparing the two.
On the Gridiron show I heard host Billy Sierra mention Kinne thinking that they “run [Jackson] too much” and that could be a reason for his early season struggles. The funny thing is that the start of this UTSA game was all about short, easy passes to get Jackson in rhythm. The first throw went into the ground, however. The second was an arrow pass to the tight end to set up 3rd and 5. His next early throw was a terrible interception where he was staring down his target and the corner undercut it. That’s a bad read, a bad throw, and just poor stuff from the QB.
They were most dangerous running the ball. The pass game is a lot of constraint plays (quick throws to the flat, ‘now’ screens, etc) with some vertical stuff thrown in. Jackson does not have the strongest arm, so when they ask him to make the far-sideline throws he was hitting the ground, missing his target and what-have-you.
Their QB run game is nice, and something similar to what we saw vs UNLV. They do all the same stuff — inside zone, inserts, gap-runs like power and counter. The nicest play I saw was a counter-QB inverted veer. Jackson spins away from the run, and runs against the play.
They’ll just go pin-and-pull and run Jackson to the edge.
I didn’t track it, but it looked like all their most dangrous runs came from direct snap stuff. Both of their backs vs UTSA were very patient. RB4 (Burgess) ran for 8+ yards per tote. He is patient behind that big line, finds gaps, and slices through. Its impressive. RB6 (Jackson) did the same, and ran for 99 yards himself. This offense would have put up 40 if they could throw the ball with any semblance of consistency.
My film notes were literally “QB bad eyes. QB bad throw to edge. QB wild overthrow. QB missed throw. QB dropped snap.” Adding to their mistakes was the center snapping the ball inconsistently especially when he had to pull. 77 (Badusi) and 71 (Boone), and 75 (Jackson) look big on film, and can move relatively well. Their center can get to the next level and moves pretty well. Overall these dudes are tough and it will be a challenge to wear them down. UTSA managed some good stuff against them but was helped by Brad Jackson not being locked in.
For NT, the entire two-deep Defensive Line played well. Notes read like “91! 6! 98 winning! 9 Good eyes! 34 great play! 10! 42! 15! 34 again!” It was just great play by those guys, winning individual battles and disrupting the UNLV offense. The Rebels have a sieve on the offensive line, but do similar things. I don’t expect North Texas to just bully ball their way up front, but I do think having such depth is a good thing. In previous iterations of NT football in recent years fatigue set in too early and NT would get blown off the ball late. I don’t see that happening here.
Best Case Scenario: NT holds serve in the run game, and let’s Jackson throw the ball to them, or just the ground.
Worst Case Scenario: Jackson remembers how to complete passes to his guys and NT’s thin secondary are tested.
Verdict: I think Jackson Arnold is a much better QB (running and passing) with a worse offensive line. I think we’ll learn just how important having a good line is.
Attacking The Bobcats
The usual suspects are leading the charge here. North Texas has been solid-to-good offensively. We wrote this week about the good and bad on this side of the ball. In short, NT is heavily reliant on Jaheim White to make plays and for Tayven Jackson to simply run the offense. Neal Brown has called two solid games with good game plans and the team has largely executed those in both games.
The plan for this one is to stay ahead of the chains, and attack the edges. Texas State’s corners are awful tackling. The game-winning touchdown — UTSA was simply setting up for a straight-on kick to win it — was because the corner was unwilling to get dirty.
Texas State operates out of a 4-2-5/3-3-5 hybrid — the same as most teams. They have some size and athleticism along their front, with Owens standing out as their nose. UTSA was able to get plenty of push against their front, however, and the Bobcats primarily used a lot of pressures to cause havoc. LB 29 Payne is quick, but more of a safety kind of build. They move guys around plenty, and we’ll see their Vypers at the edge, and any combination of guys doing simulated and real pressures.
They got very undisciplined in their run-gaps, however, and UTSA was able to pin guys inside and get free. Once UTSA starting running their counters and screen game, they found lots of space. Compounding the problem for Texas State was that their corners were bad tackling in space, turning 6-yard gains into bigger ones.
Poor tackling and bad eyes cost them the game.
UTSA did a good job in their screen game, and used their aggression against them. One of the scores was a double-pass, after all. The question here becomes “Can Tayven Jackson make reads under pressure?” because he will be pressured. I can’t say Jackson has been pressured too much, and that’s a credit to him and Neal Brown. NT has stayed ahead of the sticks and has been able to engineer ways to get the ball out quickly.
I feel like the NT play-action game will have a moment, and it will be up to Jackson to hit a guy wide-open in this one. Texas State’s defensive philosophy is about creating chaos, and betting that your offense will not be able to take (enough) advantage to move the ball.
I didn’t see their defense be able to create much pressure with four, and when they had to sit back to defend the field they were sliced up a bit. I’m very excited about the prospect of a guy like White, known for making guys miss, against a secondary that simply does not tackle at all. Expect Brown to mix in some more swing passes, or simply put White on the edges again like we saw vs Indiana.
Best Case Scenario: North Texas is able to find gaps, and move the ball well by staying ahead of the chains and scoring enough to either stay competitive (Indiana) or blow it open (UNLV).
Worst Case Scenario: The big gambles Texas State takes pay off, and we see some terrible turnovers or big sacks. NT is unable to move the ball and has to play catch up.
Verdict: I think NT’s offense is only going to get better. We haven’t needed Jackson to really show his stuff, and the third week in on the road is a great time to do it. Neal Brown’s team are usually criticized for being too conservative, so I don’t really think we’ll see NT play into Texas States hands and do anything to risky.
Stray Thoughts and Predictions
Brad Jackson has not been as good for Texas State as he was last year. Their offense puts a lot on him, but if they can lean on the run game more, and find enough in the pass game they can be dangerous. Kinne is a good offensive mind and he’s been finding some clever looks and ideas.
Matt Powledge for NT has been quietly impressive. He came from Baylor with something of a tarnished reputation, but a good pedigree for football-knowers.4 The challenge will be on stopping the run, and then causing and then taking advantage of the mistakes in the TxSt pass game.
This will not be a hostile crowd, and it will be warm. NT has already demonstrated that they can handle the heat (last week) and faced a more impressive crowd in Bloomington. Also? NT has already played at 11am. Nothing about this game will be anything that NT hasn’t seen or experienced and while that might be something to worry about (overconfidence?) Brown has had his guys playing the game in front of them.
Neal Brown’s team this season has been the most prepared, and at-least-as-physical as the opponent in both games. While NT has made mistakes, there is nothing glaring. Even the injuries in the secondary haven’t been too concerning so far. The game is played up front, and so far NT has been very impressive on both sides of the ball. Texas State is big and strong there, but that is just a challenge.
GMG
Prediction: NT 34 TxSt 27
NT is 6-1-36 in that one. Eek.
Home of SMU. So it all connects.
unconfirmed
Dave Aranda, his former boss, is a long-time respected defensive mind even if he — and his defense — are not doing great at Baylor.