2025: Rice Preview
Danger: Trap Games Ahead!
We do have a posting schedule for this here newsletter/blog/site/endeavor. We aim to get a game preview out by Wednesday at the latest, and hopefully a podcast in there somewhere. That’s the minimum. I won’t write unfortunately because the cause was regular work, which pays me and keeps me sheltered, fed, and clothed and whatnot. I will write disappointingly because it was. MGN has hot sports opinions, and we had to keep them bottled up — or worse: waste them on the social media.
We write to you the morning of game day in Houston, Tx. North Texas’ Mean Green Football squad will be at Rice Stadium for a showdown with up-and-coming Rice for a conference matchup.
The top level analysis is “They ain’t good.” North Texas is good. That doesn’t mean much of anything, however. It just sets the starting point of the competition. We’ve said on the MGN Podcast that the consequences of being a good team are that expectations change. You start to have to find your motivation internally. You have to play to your own standards, and not simply think the opponent will bring out the best in you.
Rice has been hyping this game up. There is a derisive term on social media that mocks opponents for being excited about a game. “We are their Super Bowl.” This is the natural state of things. Good teams get attention. They get extra preparation. You can’t sneak up on anyone. This is good.
People enjoy being underestimated, however. “They put us as a homecoming opponent? That’s disrespect. I’ll show them” That attitude is motivating, sure, but it really is about having your cake and eating it, too. You get blown out by a good team? Well what did anyone expect? You keep it close? Well, you should be respected for competing so well. You win? Well, no one believed in you. You showed them.
Much harder is to be the favorite and have to find the internal discipline to go and kick ass when everyone expects you to go out and kick ass. You can see the other team is playing hard, and playing harder in some cases than they did on film. You are getting their best shot. No one praises you for a blow out win. “Taking care of business”. Think about it: were you overly impressed by the blowout win over UAB?
You were not. You felt like perhaps it could have been bigger, more impressive. They kind of actually were soft on defense when you think about it. Etc.
Now, am I saying we should have sympathy for this squad right now? No. They are enjoying themselves and getting their rewards after performing above and beyond expectations. North Texas has the number one scoring offense in the nation, folks. The QB is a revelation. The RB is a star in the making. The coach is working his magic and will get a raise, here or elsewhere.
These are the good times. Make hay.
The thing to remember this week is this: North Texas cannot win the American Conference by beating Rice. They can certainly lose American Conference by losing to Rice.
Adjust appropriately.
From Rice Game Notes:
I remember the 9/11/10 game. I was in the stands for that. It was awful.
I remember the 77-20 loss. I was at work and checked my phone only to see NT allowed 40 points in the first half. I went to middle school with Jarett Dillard so it was a little strange. I like to joke that the only guy to beat me out for the WR spot then was the NCAA record holder
David Bailiff was underrated as a Rice head coach.
Defending Versus Rice
The rushing attack brought by the Owls is a triple-option inspired out of the pistol. Scott Abell has Rice playing better, but really if I’m honest there is not an appreciable difference from the previous regime and it’s “Intellectual Brutality.”
I think they have a good idea in leaning into some service academy-adjacent philosophies and playing differently than the rest of the league. They don’t have a full roster to really be effective at this although they have had some moments. Good teams are pretty much handling the inside run well enough, and so the horizontal and play-action things aren’t as effective.
North Texas has seen two option teams, and one heavy run-first team (Western Michigan) so there are no secrets. North Texas should be well prepared for this offense, but also the weaknesses in the rush defense are on film for all to see.
North Texas defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity did a good job handling the UAB passing attack — mostly by coaching his team up to continue the turnover-fest. This game will be about discipline (again) and fundamentals.
At the teams’ worst, North Texas has been bullied a bit defensively and faded late as the teams’ depth is still no ideal. USF famously leaned on the squad on the way to running away with the game and running up the score. Western Michigan did some bully-ball, but NT was able to get key stops. Army had some long drives but NT came up with a big 4th down stop in OT. Those teams are more effective running but Rice will be home, on senior day, and will be trying to meet the moment against the AP 22nd ranked team.
Attacking Versus Rice
Last week, Eric Morris showed he is a practical guy. Instead of forcing the pass game, he went with a bruising rush attack when it mattered most: the red zone. Caleb Hawkins was a man among boys despite being the youngest guy on the field.
Rice has not been blown out regularly this season, except for two games: at UTSA, in which everyone seemingly was hurt and they gave up 61; and at Memphis in which they lost 38-17.
The ball control offense is part of their defensive plan: they will control the clock and not let NT get a rhythm. Again, this is something we have seen vs NT in the Western Michigan game, the Army and Navy games, and at times even vs UTSA.
North Texas is brutally efficient at moving the ball and scoring. They have also shown they can control the clock — game plan vs Army was to take the TOP for a bit — and we are likely to see NT push the pace, get up early and force Rice to be uncomfortable.
It is a bit lazy to say “do what you do” but that’s the best advice. There are weaknesses in the Rice defense, but a lot of the NT game plan will be about doing what they do effectively. Charlotte, UAB, and Rice are among the worst teams in the league, but Rice is a little better — they beat UAB after all, in a close one.
That is a crucial difference here: Rice is not a bad team, but jut not a good. Said differently, Rice probably doesn’t have the depth of talent or ability to execute to hang in this one, but they won’t do silly things and beat themselves.
That makes them dangerous because they are perfectly capable jumping on an opportunity. They are 5-5 and had to scrap their way to wins, that just means they know winning is tough and you need to scrape and claw your way to do so. They won’t get the sads after going down a touchdown. They know they will have to execute their assignments and keep their eyes in the right place and make North Texas drive the ball.
Sometimes, however, you just don’t have enough. I expect that to be the case.
Predictions
Best case scenario:
North Texas grabs a couple of impressive early touchdowns (like vs Army, Wazzu, Charlotte, USF, Navy, UAB) and even with some uneven middle game possessions, is comfortable moving the ball. The defense allows two or three longish drives but puts the clamps on the Rice often for punts, FGs, and turnovers.
Worst case scenario:
North Texas is unable to move the ball, as Drew Mestemaker looks to beforcing things. The wideouts get the dropsies, and the run game is simply “Give it to Caleb” without the blocking required. This kind of thing has happened before, but in moments, not consistently.
In the season preview I predicted 40-24. I think Rice slows the game a bit to much, and the defense should be better. Let’s say NT 41-Rice 17.
GMG