2025: New Mexico Bowl Preview vs San Diego State

Postseason has arrived

As of this moment five days ahead of the game, the official New Mexico Bowl website links to last year’s official game program. Don’t feel bad if you haven’t been overly invested in this matchup. It seems ESPN Events and the people involved are not exactly on their A-game.

Depending on who plays in this game, who is motivated to play, and how much preparation was put in, this should be a nice test for both squads. San Diego State is a very good defense. They chase the ball, they attack blocks, and they like some pre-snap confusion.

They like to move around and create some pre-snap discussion about who is going to pick up whom. When it works, it causes chaos. When it doesn’t it can lead to some funny run fits. North Texas gets to the line pretty quickly so I don’t expect SDST to do this much but it is possible.

The Aztecs did not play the top two offenses in their league, but did shut down the third-best San Jose State pretty well. Hawaii, with their Raid n’ Shoot offense, was able to get close to their season average in yardage and put up 38 points.

I’d say this team is mostly disciplined, and aggressive. They haven’t played anyone with North Texas’ firepower, however. Tulane’s game plan was ball-control, and pressure on Drew Mestemaker. That was effective, as Mestemaker turned the ball over pretty much with no pressure in his face. His throws — when they were off — were just poor. He’ll want to make up for that.

SDST will bring pressure, and dare Mestemaker — or whomever — to diagnose the defense quickly and make the right read. They tackle well in space, and get off blocks at all levels. Again, we haven’t seen them against super dynamic offenses and they have been beat by some mediocre offensive teams.

Offensively, they are a heavy run team but with a nice play-action game, and some offensive lineman that can create time for their QB.

Again, against Tulane NT did a solid job, but couldn’t get turnovers or force quick three-and-outs. The overall grade was probably somewhere in a C+ to a B-, depending on how much you weight quick-changes and short-yardage games.

Expect SDSU to try to bleed this game away with the run game, take some shots with the play-action, and try to get the NT starting QB to be Drew Mistake-Maker. Up until the Tulane game, he was pretty solid-to-great in this area. But we could say the same about Wyatt Young. He had the dropsies — including one that led to a pick-six.

We cannot ignore the play by the team in New Orleans, and not think it mightily possible that it pops up again. There will likely not be any Caleb Hawkins (no word yet), a guy who was a terrific bandage for poor offensive play. Against San Diego State, a battering ram that wears down an otherwise tough team seems like the right remedy. The other thing to consider is how much time off everyone has had. We’ll see fresh bodies, not ones that are beat up and falling apart after a the grind of a long season. Will we see the sharpness of a well-honed machine that was the NT offense late in the season? It could go either way. I think the rest is good, but expect some weirdness here and there.

ECU fans will get a preview of Jordan Davis: OC in this one. I don’t expect the play-calling will be very different as the game-planning will be similar. They get plays in the game plan and then see which the QB wants and is comfortable with. I don’t expect Drew Mestemaker will suddenly prefer altogether different ones.

From a coaching standpoint, this game is about finding the right motivation for the guys — Svoboda is the interim head man and will be tasked with eliciting the right effort for this game.

The Context

North Texas is in a bowl drought right as bowls are waning in general popularity. The bowl glut, circa the mid-2000s to the mid-2010s was about television ratings and given the rise and expansion of the college football playoff and expanded schedules — North Texas is playing the 14th game of the season! — these games are less important.

NIL and the new transfer portal rules have also increased the risk for players and their futures. It no longer is one last hurrah in a cool place, but something of a burden for little to no money. The incentives are misaligned.

Historically — I’m talking to the first days of bowl games — bowl wins were a proxy for program quality. A bowl invite was a marker for status — you were good enough of a draw and successful enough in a season to earn an invite. The bowl expansion cheapened that status marker — I expect CFP invites to be the new marker — but North Texas still has not won a bowl since 2013, however lacking in prestige. It is a thorn in the side of supporters, and the barren bowl cabinet taunting us.

That would be clear motivation for people and players fully dedicated to the school, and the program, but given all of the transfer rumors and predictions it is a case of being so close and yet so far away.

Eric Morris accomplished many things this year but will not coach in the bowl game to earn his place next to Dan McCarney. Seth Littrell led his teams to many bowls but came away a loser every time. Depending on the future in store fore the G5/6, this may be one of the last years in which this is even possible. It means nothing, but also very much.

The New Mexico Bowl is not particularly prestigious in the imagination of North Texas fans. As a tourist destination, it is a difficult sell to a fellow southwest program. To a fan base notoriously scrooge-like, it is a bit far to splurge on. So be it. The Mean Green will play anyway, and the television ratings are the real prize. North Texas fans will get to watch the winningest football team in program history try to add to that total.

Merry Christmas, and Go Mean Green!