I saw a mashup picture of actor Mads Mikkelsen in beach clothes on the left, and on the right walking in a trench. I laughed because it will be in the 60s up in Kalamazoo, MI this Saturday. My closet is very much organized to put summer gear first and most easily accessible. This is football weather, folks, and I cannot help but smile.
Really the only thing missing is mud. Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo is artificial grass, so we won’t have that this weekend.
Western Michigan is a fellow “Normal” school, in that it used to be a Teachers college, a Normal school, and finally became WMU in 1957. Sounds like a university I know and love. People you may know that went there: Tim Allen, Terry Crews, Greg Jennings, and Luther Vandross.
The Football Team
In 64 seasons WMU is 364-336-7 (FBS). They reached the zenith of the program under PJ Fleck where they finished in the teens of the polls, and lost the Cotton Bowl, finishing 13-1. Lance Taylor is the current coach, replacing Fleck-successor Tim Lester three years ago. WMU lost to Michigan State last week 23-6.
The program is in a middle tier of relevance. They are MAC staples, but that just means college football die-hards like to over-hype affinity for them on the weeknight games they play. Ask yourself: When was the last time I thought about Western Michigan? In that way, they are very much like our North Texas: A lot of good in front of them.
The danger for our favorite little program is that is their defensive line, which made some sacks against the Spartans. Like every program in America, they reinforced through transfers and include a U of Houston guy. Overall they reinforced their program with transfers from across the spectrum including from some Big 10 and SEC schools all the way down to junior colleges.
The dual QB system is a work in progress. Head coach Lance Taylor said they will figure out a starter but gave a very coach-speak answer about the current game. It all depends on game situation, playing quality, the game plan, and more. So it goes.
This will be more of a test for Skyler Cassity, however, in that there is more talent, and more film to be studied. I am sure that the WMU staff was looking at the Sam Houston State film, but getting some eyes on the Lamar film probably told them some things.
We mentioned in this week’s Film Room segment that the general game plan for North Texas defensively is to identify how a team does in pass protection, and then try to find the weaknesses in that. If they like to shift toward the field, then pressures will come on the short side. If they slide toward our strength, then look for matchups where we take advantage of the isolated tackle. None of this is new, but it is about winning. We can line up our best DE against their Tackle all day and if we lose then we lose. One-on-one matchups are the key to this game.
We did not see the NT secondary tested at all. Lamar put up only 119 yards of offense, after all. Interestingly, WMU doesn’t have a lot of size on their wideout depth chart. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything as good players come in all sizes, but it is interesting.
Defensively, we should see more of a 4-2-5-ish look. Their DTs are light — in the 270 range (compare our 290s) which tells me they go for speed and angles than power. North Texas isn’t a power run team, and tricky defensive lines attacking our QB has historically been a problem. The good news is that the pass game should be fine. Eric Morris calls the offensive line a strength (compared to last season) and QB Drew Mestemaker has shown that he keeps his head down the field and makes plays. He hasn’t been rattled too much by pressure (two games, acknowledged) thus far. This will be his first true road game, however, and in the aforementioned Football Weather.
We will learn much from this game. Eric Morris hasn’t been great on the road (he’s been slightly below average in his time here, with a 12-14 record) but we can be excited that 1) he has a better defense [caveats acknowledged] and 2) he has the same powerful offense.
I expect the travel will slow the start some, but we should still expect some offense. The run game will still be tough — WMU was run over by a run-first team from the Big Ten. North Texas couldn’t really run against Lamar but some of that was circumstance (the pass game was wide open) and some of that was some early-season rust. I expect Patrick Cobbs will want to improve that this week. Everyone has pride in their work, folks. We don’t need 300+ yards rushing, but effective running when we attempt it. The good last week was that the short-yardage game scored some touchdowns and had first-down conversions. We want to see some early-down effectiveness in this one. The classic road football success playbook says you want to run the ball well and protect the QB.
The Skinny
North Texas Football is about a 10-point favorite for this one. The Mean Green possess a quality QB, a proven head coach/OC, and a newly stout defense. WMU has a light, unproven defense, a quarterback battle to lead an iffy-offense. Basically they don’t have the defense to really slow the worst version of this NT offense, and likely don’t have an offense to really keep up. That’s why the spread is what it is.
Of course, there are always outliers. A few turnovers or big plays and it doesn’t matter if your offense can’t put a drive together.
Now, that said, Skyler Cassity’s defense is exciting precisely because they typically don’t allow big plays. Against Lamar there were only three +15 yard passes and zero +10 runs. That’s a stark contrast to last year’s version. Also, Cassity had a reputation at SHST for getting sacks and turnovers. Against Lamar they sacked the QB three times, and got two turnovers and 10 points off those, including a sack-fumble (Wesloski!).
The other thing is that the Mean Green defense will ask the QB to do their job well. They will hit him, they will ask him to read the defense. “It’s not the defensive coordinator against the offensive coordinator, it’s the DC vs the QB. Can he make his reads and execute under duress.”
Questions:
1. Will The Meste-Magic travel?
The QB has been a revelation, but he’s also been playing in the DFW area, with stadiums (mostly) filled with green and white. This will be the first time he will see a hostile stadium. Everyone talks about how smart and mature he is, so we don’t have worries, but playing on the road is different. We will see how different and if he can do the same kinds of things.
2. Will the Defense …
a. Travel? It is easier to be dangerous when the crowd is behind you. It is harder to play well when the offense can communicate easily and is feeling the support of the fans.
b. Play well against FBS? Lamar is one thing, but this group will have more talented players at all levels. We do not expect another shut out (imagine, though?) but we want to see a continuation of the same kinds of things we saw then: attention to detail, aggression, QB pressure, turnovers.
c. Play well in consecutive weeks? Anyone can do something well the first time. The true mark of a good player, team, program is consistency. It started with an A+ game last week. Can they prepare the same way, keep that work ethic, and execute again?
3. Will the Run Game Show Up?
Being one-dimensional is a recipe for disaster. Teams will figure out how to take that away also, and begin daring the squad to run the ball. We need the run game to keep everyone honest, and produce some big plays of its own. It is slightly worrying that the run game was not great last week, but I think there is plenty of time to get that fixed. The talent is deeper, the offensive line is better, and last year NT ran pretty well (even if it was home-run based).
MGN Will Be On Hand in Kalamazoo, MI
Your 4th favorite blogger will be in Michigan (with son in tow) for some Mean Green Football in the flesh. We’ll be at the Raddison on Friday night so if you are in town, let me know in the comments or just show up and we can talk some football. GMG
Prediction (preseason) NT 31–28.
Prediction (this week) NT 35–10.
Good stuff Adam! Thank you for the work you put into this. Safe travels to Kalamazoo. GMG!
"DO-YOU-SMELL-WHAT-"THE-DREW"-IS-COOKING?!"