2025 Football Preview: Overview

We begin to care

It is more difficult than ever before to really know your favorite football team. Sure, you can know the names of the transfers and be familiar with some statistics here and there. But the trend of mass movement has not abated, but instead has become even more prevalent. And so we are here in late August and the most familiar face might be the QB who has played approximately one game of football (in HS and College) in five years. Drew Mestemaker had a nice game vs Texas State at the start of this year in Dallas. He apparently has impressed the staff more than Poffenbarger.

That isn’t a surprise, really. In Eric Morris’ three-year tenure he has had at least two QBs start in each season. He famously (in our circles) did not start touted transfer Chandler Rogers in his first season. For other programs, coaches, and offenses we probably would spend some time worrying about that aspect of things. However, for the second season in a row, we are thinking of the defense.

Eric Morris can produce offense. He the 2024 team in the top, or near the top of all the offensive categories: passing yards (1), rushing yards (1st ypc), scoring (6th conf) and so on. Was it perfect? Of course not. The attack was stymied by Texas Tech, Army, Tulane, UTSA, and Temple. The reasons were were varied depending on the situation but essentially it was that the offensive line was suspect, the running back group was devastated, and the wide out corps was young, and the top wideout underperformed while dealing with a season-long injury. Eventually teams would sit back in two-high shells letting Chandler Morris attempt to screen his way to scores. Shane Porter would occasionally break one, but he was a converted wideout who was learning on the job. He’s now at Sam Houston State.

And so we reset.

The defense was clearly the biggest issue. Eric Morris fired his first defensive coordinator midway through the season, went to a 3-4 defense for the rest of the year with mixed results, and went heavy on size along the defensive front in the portal. Skyler Cassity is the new coordinator and brought over seven Bearkats to bolster this defense. Combine that with an easier schedule and there is reason to believe that wins are in order. That’s a different thing compared to being the best team. Memphis is the most talented from 1-99. Tulane is good, and well coached. The service academies are also always tough and well-disciplined. Throw in UTSA somewhere in there and it is clear that North Texas cannot just out-talent this league. It will be about execution of the scheme, game-planning, and maximizing the talent available.

Defense

If in the last two seasons NT had an even league-average defense, the Eric Morris story so far would be one of incredible accomplishment. Thus far it has been mediocre — an 11-14 record, powerful offenses but the worst defense in the league for two years running. He used up some goodwill in firing his first defensive coordinator hire, and therefore so much is riding on new coordinator Syler Cassity’s performance.

Last season we spilt much digital ink on the scheme. Was it too clever? I could see the vision, but I question the thinking of a spread-stopper when the league is full of bulldozer squads. Two service academies, Tulane, UTSA, and before Dilfer, UAB are all run-first teams. Why build a team with three down lineman and five defensive backs? Sure, you could argue talent and something or other, but the results spoke for themselves. Eric Morris has had some awful defenses in his two seasons. It has been so bad that last year’s objectively bad defense looked fairly good in comparison to the first year’s.

Morris saw the issue as being too “light.” The first recruiting class was a miss, and NT was bullied off the ball far to often for a scheme that relied on the three-down lineman to make an impact. Last year was about getting bulkier, and NT added some depth. It worked to an extent, but teams with real strength and depth simply moved North Texas off the ball — Texas Tech, Memphis, UTSA, Tulane, Army.

It was never only just about size, however. North Texas had some heft up front and even went to heavier looks for some situations. It was about depth, and talent. As is always the case, the defense has to be nearly perfect to succeed and too often NT was happy to make mistakes. Good coaches find the weakest link and are ruthless about exploiting it. Injuries throughout the squad forced some youth to play more high-profile roles and opposing coaches took full advantage. Some one-time starters and heavy-minutes guys are gone or pushed down the depth chart — McFarland, Lewis et al — and in are proven guys (in this scheme) with real talent. The hope is that the defense will be asking more questions of the offense instead of looking confused and reactive against well-coached squads.

Cassity prefers a base 4-2-5 look, which MGN takes great pains every year to say is simply an organizing starting point. Nearly every team is base-nickel (five DBs) or uses some kind of hybrid scheme that relies on speed along the entire defensive front. (Memphis ran the same 3-3-5 scheme as NT last year, and had more success because of their defensive front, and their superior play at Middle linebacker.) The biggest points of emphasis are in:

1. Controlling the line of scrimmage (gap control, short yardage wins)

2. Getting pressure on the QB (hurries, pressures, sacks)

3. Making plays (forcing turnovers: fumbles, interceptions, winning 3rd downs)

Roughly speaking, the previous coach wanted to do the first with slants, and angles. He wanted to do the second with pressure and confusion (blitzes), and he wanted to do the latter with dynamic play from his star safety spot. North Texas didn’t get enough from its front, nor did the pressure packages work, and the safetey play was hit-and-miss.

For Cassity, to achieve the first goal, NT has bulked up. Richard Outland, Avion Carter, and Saadiq Clements were added at defensive tackle. Vailea returns, and will play Nose (probably). Instead of anchoring one side of a three-man group, he will be asked to take up space next to Outland. These two (and the depth added in these positions) will be asked to be stronger and hold the interior of the defense more effectively. Instead of the shifts and angles to get interior control they will rely on just having two near-300 lbs in the A and B gaps.

On the edges, NT has a group of relatively unproven but intriguing edge rushers. Lots of guys in the 6-3 to 6-5 range with the kind of speed and power that suggests sacks will be in the future. Briceon Hayes had 7 QB hurries in split time for Sam Houston last season. The edge guys will drop into coverage — game-planning, tendency-identification, etc. — and throw off the opposition while LBs are sent after the QB.

Everyone wants to be simple, but look complicated nowadays. Cassity’s strength comes in the form of game-planning and preparation. His Sam Houston defense was second in the CUSA in sacks, and first in turnovers (items 2 and 3 above). He stopped or slowed some very good offenses in his time at Sam Houston by finding tendencies, taking away easy things, and getting pressure on the QB. He was helped by a slow-it-down offense that allowed the defense to rest and shorten the game. Still, a break from the four-year program streak of allowing 30+ ppg would be welcome. NT allowed 24 ppg in 2018, 28 in 021 and in both seasons they reached 30+ sacks. The last two seasons the Mean Green have only had 42 total. In 2021 the squad had 38! This group is in desperate need of of QB pressure. It is no coincidence that the average yards per play allowed is higher in seasons with lower sacks, and lower in seasons with many sacks.

We’ll learn plenty early, even against under-talented teams. By the end of the first month North Texas will have played Washington State, Army, and South Alabama — three programs that are effective offensively with unique approaches of attack.

Offense

In changing from Seth Littrell to Eric Morris, NT went from an run-first Air Raider to a pass-first Air Raider but you couldn’t really tell too much from the numbers. The program is still in the 400-500 range of offense, even if Morris is nearer to 500 ypg than not (496, 489) with about 33ppg. Littrell’s teams ran more (200+ypg) for three seasons straight) while Morris’ pass more (300+ ypg for two seasons) but both averaged around 6.5 yards per play. Both coaches’ teams have had a negative turnover ratio (around -6 for both).

All that is good and bad. Littrell’s offenses had deep running back groups, some iffy QB play, and could have used some more consistency in important moments. Morris’ teams have had lots of injuries, deep WR (but young) groups, and solid QB play but could have used some more consistency.

In Morris’ defense, he has been reconfiguring the roster, and had a very empty defensive cupboard. Littrell had brought in lots of transfers his final seasons, and not all worked out. It wasn’t quite the full-on transfer portal usage as is no common, but instead one that relied on JUCOs and lower-division transfers. NT struggled and still struggles for depth. Mind you, I am not comparing this roster to P5 ones, but instead the rest of the AAC. Other programs have been able to go two-deep along the defensive front, while NT has consistently been without playmakers. Since the twins left for UCLA, NT hasn’t had good QB pressure. I do not think it a coincidence that it was the last year NT topped 30+ sacks, the last time NT beat UTSA, or the last time NT won against a top-25 squad (UTSA).

Why are we talking about the defense in the ‘offense’ section? Well the poor play of the defense has warped the offense. Morris’ playcalling in some situations has been overly aggressive and skewed by the idea (realization?) that the defense is not going to do too much. It puts extreme pressure on the offense and the quarterback. The offense has had to go full-field on numerous occasions and while to a man they will all say that they have no problems with this and any failures are their own, etc, it is simply a matter of fact that even the best offenses will score more from short fields than long ones.

Add to all that some unlucky injuries and it is quite remarkable that the offense has been as potent as it has been. The lead runner was a 4th string converted wideout. Most games saw at least one offensive line reconfiguration. There were at least two games were the a freshman center was starting. One game saw a right guard start play center for the first time in his life. This season there is a lot of experience and depth. Should some injuries happen (inevitable) it shouldn’t require so much reconfiguration on the fly.

At running back, NT got bigger and faster. There is much more to playing the position than simply running to daylight (a big portion, yes) and the crew assembled should be more solid (crosses fingers) and healthy. Makenzie McGill did some nice things in a short time period. He runs hard, he scores. He should be better at the whole package of being a running back in the system. Also here are some transfers, (Clayton-Johnson) and some intriguing new faces. NT was able to produce home runs from a converted wideout with a makeshift line. I am confident they will be solid running the ball for yards, but the question is about getting the Must Have yards — short yardage, etc. McGill was famously stuffed on 4th down vs Army. Those moments are the type we need to see change.

In the pass game, it was recently announced that Drew Mestemaker will start over Reese Poffenbarger. I am unsurprised, as the staff was very high on Drew before the bowl game. “He can do it all”, they said. He looked like he had it in him, running like a gazelle and throwing darts all over the field. He also looked as if he hadn’t played a lot of football also. He ended the night with some bad decisions, getting sacked and throwing an interception. Still, a first game line of 26/41 393 2 scores 2 picks? Not terrible.

Life will get tougher for him as teams adapt to his film, and tendencies. That is life as a QB, however. Everyone says he is built for it mentally, and that is 90% of the position.

Miles Coleman will try to do a DT Sheffield impression. Coleman’s freshman season was mostly taking short screens and trying to run past guys. He’ll need to improve his route-running and catch-in-traffic game but he’s a talent. Landon Sides had a down sophomore year, and he and Wyatt Young will continue to be confused for each other. NT has speedy slot guys all over, but the question we have is if Simeon Evans can be the chain-mover we hoped Damon Ward was before injury. There are a few guys with size (Baron Tipton at 6-5, Kyle Koch at 6-3) that look the part but had some hit-or-miss freshman seasons.

Whoever it is, needs to be able to win on vertical routes, make tough catches on some 15-18 yard digs, skinny posts, and on the RPO stuff. North Texas had too many Should-Have-Caught-That plays last year.

We all know Morris likes Mestemaker for a lot of reasons, but one is that he can run the entire offense. If you did not like that Chandler Morris seemingly was on a diet of screen passes, you will be happy to know that Drew Mestemkaker does not (right now, cross your fingers) have a shoulder injury that is affecting him. Mestemaker threw the ball vertically vs Texas State in the bowl game, and tried some screen stuff. I’m bullish that the very young wideout corps (Coleman, Young, Sides, Koch, Tipton) will be more reliable this season. The staff went out and added an Evans, and some experience to bolster the group as well. North Texas had explosivity, but needs to be more consistency.

Schedule

To be perfectly honest, the schedule is a little underwhelming and I am happy for that. Phil Steele has the difficulty at 105. Everyone around Denton needs a little bit of an ego boost.

September: Lamar, at WMU, Wazzu, at Army, South Alabama.

My guesstimate here is 40-17 over Lamar. WMU is not returning a lot of guys from a barely-bowl eligible squad. Kind of a toss-up. NT wins 31-28. Wazzu is tough to assess. They lost a ton of guys but last year beat Texas Tech and lost to Wyoming. You might remember that NT was destroyed by Tech, and blew out Wyoming. Let’s say L 30-27. Army is tough at home, but lost Bryson Daily and a lot of their conference-winning group. Let’s say 24-17 W. South Alabama lost their QB and is picked to be 8th in the SB West. I say 45-28 W.

Record: 4-1

October: Bye, USF, UTSA, at Charlotte

USF is talented but underperformed. I say that NT wins coming off a bye at home. 35-28. UTSA is being picked to go to the title game, and has a ton of talent and a solid QB. Eventually this losing streak will end but I don’t know that a young QB is the one to do it against an experienced QB and a talented defense. L 27-42. Let’s call a blowout win over Charlotte in NC, 40-20.

Record: 2-1

November: Navy at home, Bye, UAB in Birmingham. Rice in Houston, then Temple at home.

Navy brings back a ton of starters and their QB Horvath. This and the UTSA game are the toughest on the schedule. I’m going to say a close loss, 21-30. UAB is still awful, so 55-10 win. Rice will be tough with their new offense and new coach, and will be getting into the version the coach imagines them to be. Still, NT will have seen the option already this season and will be facing a less experienced version of it. NT wins 40-24. Finally, Temple. They hired a new coach — KC Keeler, from Sam Houston — and will be rebuilding their program. I imagine they’ll be tough but I see NT win this 35-21

Record: 3-1

Total: 9-3

The real swing games are against UTSA, USF, and Navy.

The League

The AAC is expected to be a race between Memphis, UTSA, and Tulane with USF, and Navy making a little noise. As we saw last season with Army, you can take advantage of a weak schedule and put yourself in a great position to win a trophy. Memphis slipped up against Navy and UTSA and found themselves on the outside despite having the most talented team (classic Memphis). UTSA’s McCown is getting a lot of praise but looked poor against ECU, FAU, and Rice. When he doesn’t have the scouting report in a text message, how good is he?

Depending on circumstances, we could see NT in the AAC title game, even if it isn’t the best team on paper, or even by resume. All that matters is the record.

Questions

How good is the QB spot? Poffenbarger has a lot of experience… but it isn’t recent. Mestemaker has talent, but also hasn’t little experience. Both weaknesses will be taken advantage of by good defensive coordinators.

How good will the defense be? The advanced numbers didn’t love the Sam Houston transfers at linebacker, and outside of the corner duo, the guys brought in were good but not game-changers (those guys went elsewhere). The pace of play will be different — NT is up-tempo vs SHSU’s ball-control — and there is a possibility that the defense will suffer overall. It is concerning that there is no obvious standouts along the defensive line — just potential and good vibes. I’ll take it.

How will Morris adapt his play-calling? He said he changed it to account for the defense last year. He probably was too aggressive (FAU moment comes to mind, and against Army as well) but he’s closer to the situation than I so it probably makes sense. We want bold but not reckless.

Can the squad hold up? At what point do you reevaluate your physical training regime? Last year NT was devastated at running back, offensive line, defensive back, and wide receiver. Morris said it was probably because guys were too small, so he went out and found bigger, presumably more durable guys. Everyone is hurt by the end of the year, but I cannot take losing the top three guys on the depth chart anymore.

What is a good season? One, we need a winning season. 8 wins is good, 9 is very good, 10 has never been done. Competing for a title might be more hurtful than helpful for morale, but I will never, ever turn down an opportunity to compete for a league title. It’s about the trophies, boys. Always. That said, this team is good enough to get to a bowl, and probably good enough to end the losing streak depending on the opponent. A bowl win will do a lot of fans a lot of good.