In my mind, North Texas played Army just the other day. I can still feel the (sports) pain of losing the time of possession battle. I feel the sting of Chandler Morris’ pressing, trying to make something happen. I see him throwing some terrible interceptions that seemed very uncharacteristic. You can say that UNT got “Armied” and you would be right.
There is a scene in 2020’s I Care A Lot wherein Rosamund Pike’s character, after getting bested by Peter Dinklage’s character says something like, “No, you don’t get to win that way. You have to win my way.” She’s referring to playing the game the way she does: clever, using the system. He resorts to physical intimidation. The application here is that this is how it can feel when playing the service academies. They seemingly play a different version of football. They are good at it, and it can be frustrating. The game clock seemingly ticks faster than normal, and pressure is put upon your offense to be perfect.
Last year, UNT’s powerful offense was beat by the rules of the game: You can score if you don’t have possession.
From last year’s quick reaction:
Army went on a 21-play 94-yard drive that used up 10:54 of time. It was incredible. Their offensive line leaned on North Texas. The ran hard. Daily converted some 3rd and 3s. They converted a crucial 4th down play with something out of the College Football 25 playbook — a jet sweep to their speedy guy who got the first down by about a half-inch.
Forty-one minutes of possession. To beat Army, you need to get the ball back … or just do more with less. For Air Raid teams, and “up-tempo” teams in general, the idea was to reduce variance by getting more repetitions, quicker. You wanted to play against defenses who weren’t set, with predictable lineups, and trust your execution.
If you can be efficient with your possessions, you will not be as pressured to score and the game can be a back-and-forth.
Of course, historically, North Texas has played in another version of these games: the ones where we cannot stop their quirky offense and they cannot stop our modern one.
Skyler Cassity, the NT defensive coordinator, is making himself some fame and fortune with his performance. After ACU, he shone real bright as the DC of Sam Houston State and now has (so far) done the seemingly impossible: turn North Texas’s defense into a good one. It reminds me of Mike Leach hiring Ruffin McNeill, and later Alex Grinch and how that took a dangerous offense into top-10 level football by adding a defense worth a damn.
UNT’s offense doesn’t have the same big offensive numbers — by yards per game mostly — but is tremendously more efficient. The 3rd down numbers are up 14%, the passing rating is up 26 points (to 166), the QB hasn’t thrown an interception, and the scoring is up 12 points. Why? Well the defense has provided short fields, quick stops, and even points.
Army? Well they are down a bit. Bryson Daily is graduated, and they simply are a yard per carry worse than they were a year ago. Last year Army would get a stranglehold on you with that ball-control offense, a mix of the triple and some modern elements, and then bait you into some turnovers. Then they would squeeze the life out of you. The more you struggled, the more they would score. It was frustrating for opponents, beautiful for old-school football lovers, and terrible when we played them.
Tarleton State won in New York …. but Kansas State lost to them in Manhattan, Kansas. How? Well the same things we discussed. They were inefficient with their chances. K-State had a 13-0 lead, but it could have and should have been more. Some drops, some missed-opportunities, and suddenly the ball-control offense scores a second touchdown and Army leads 14-0. K-State scores a kick return to go up 14-21 but they left a lot of time on the clock and wore out their defense. Army scores a go-ahead touchdown with yet another 4th-down conversion (short yardage) and suddenly K-State’s inefficient offense needs to score. Johnson throws a bad ball, it is tipped by the back, and into the hands of the Army defender. Game over.
What can we learn? Well, the same lessons. Score touchdowns, get stops, don’t let them get into short yardage because they will capitalize. Play smart football. Army play within themselves — sound football, zone drops, smart risks, fight for every yard to maximize their chances. If you are sloppy with your stuff, they will take advantage.
Questions
Will North Texas Stop That Option?
Every year I link to the previous writings about stopping the option as far as details. It is about stopping the dive, hitting the QB, and adjusting your adjustments. People like to say “assignment football” and yes, that is true, but smart option OCs like to see what your assignment is, and confuse you by changing things. You need to adapt. The advantage Army has, is that they run this every week and see everyone’s adjustments. They know how teams try to stop them and have experience adjusting to those things.
Will Drew Mestemaker handle West Point?
The Magic Maker went to Kalamazoo on a cool day and delivered when it mattered most. I have every confidence he will do that, but Army will make him work. There will be opportunities and the question is if Drew can make the throws. Last year Chandler Morris forced two throws and turned the ball over. He got antsy. He felt the pressure. That was in Denton.
Will the WRs Meet The Moment?
I break this out as a separate item because we’ve seen the young QB stand tall and deliver some beautiful passes. We have also seen some guys drop some of those. I like the squad, but we still haven’t seen an absolute alpha guy step up. Wyatt Young has been the deep threat, but didn’t have to do much last week. Cam Dorner has been the possession guy, but also wasn’t asked for much. Miles Coleman is a classic Y-receiver but dropped a big pass vs Western Michigan. The opportunities will be limited and these guys (and others) will need to make the absolute most of their chances.
Will The Run Game Be Effective?
We saw some awesome signs that the run game was starting to click. Becks and McGill scooted for scores from +10 yards and also in short yardage. The run game is a function of the offensive line, and even though we’ve seen some minor shuffling they’ve improved over the course of the season. Road games are tests, and this is a sound, disciplined Army defense that knows everyone thinks they are undersized and can be pushed around.
Will the Pass Protection Be There?
Drew Mestemaker has been sacked, hit, and pressured, and the offense has had penalties. For all the good, it ain’t been perfect. Third-down-and-long isn’t ideal of course, and Army isn’t some juggernaut defensively where they can’t be beaten, but it is simply about making the most of the opportunities available. Fortunately, NT faced Western Michigan whose game plan was very similar. Army will be more effective, but with lesser athletes from 1-99.
Predictions
Interestingly, NT has been run against 61% of the time. Army smashing into them will not be as much of a shock as it would be for others.
In the preview I wrote 24-17 W. I’m feeling better about North Texas’ situation, and worse about Army. I still think it is a tight one. I’m calling it 24-15 W.
This user maintains that....had Army made the playoffs last season (which, IMHO, they really, really deserved), that they would've given the likes of PSU a better run-for-their-money, of which Boise was the least equipped to do against them.
Knowing of the possibility for Navy and Army to play three times in one season and for Navy to beat Army in a meaningless-game, before that game ever happened, set muh subconscious into a tizzy that filed-away the scenario that the world, in this timeline, got....and then forgot about it for awhile. It wasn't exactly that scenario for them and it wasn't "meaningless" whatsoever. They always play each other hard, especially the last few years. There was that loooooong run of where it seemed like Army was trash and Navy was "the" academy football team to beat....then Air Force came into their own, and then Army would intermittently step-up, and it seemed like Navy had taken a step-or-two back in recent years and that Army was set to take the mantle, at least over them, along with AF, maybe.....around 2018, this user at least had that perception. It feels long overdue for Army and last year was one of their best-ever years, as a football team.
This is, by no means, WMU and WILL be "THE" test for this UNT team, to-date, their first, real, challenge, and an in-conference one, to-boot!
UNT sets the stage to go with less than two losses all season long, including the postseason, if they beat Army. If they lose, it's not too bad of a loss. This is by no means an FBS National Championship team....yet....but The Mean Green should still be a contender for The American Title, or at least just shy of it, but -- hopefully -- nail a much-needed bowl win.
Am just trying to figure out what that bowl might be in either scenario and against whom that might be.
New Year's Six ones are out, but it wouldn't be a meaningless "bowl game", produced out of thin-air like in previous years, and one, hopefully, with more of a crowd than where a freaking SOCCER TEAM many haven't even heard of plays at! Definitely getting "Heart of Dallas" bowl vibes, but....bigger. Have to check what the listed "American" or at-large bowl games are against which other conferences to get a better gauge, and then order those in terms of "importance" to make a more tangible prediction.
The plus-side is....this is NOT "THAT" Army football team, even despite being in "their house", this is a winnable-game for UNT! From creampuff to (won) clunker to crockpotting....this team should be as ready as they will ever be to go on the road for its first, true test, and what could be their best win of the season, thus far!
Solid Verbal still has Tulane as the top American Conference team. MEM looks to be taking a step back. USF made the headlines early. It's a...four-horse race, IMHO, between Tulane, UNT, USF, and Army, and this is a game that will reverberate throughout the conference come season's end.
GMG!