2025: American Championship vs Tulane Preview
We look at the opposition
➡︎ Friday, December 5, 2025 ♦︎ 7 p.m. CT ♦︎ ABC ♦︎ Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
Note: This is a long post. Read it on the site for best experience.
The last time North Texas played for a league title was in 2022 in San Antonio. Seth Littrell went into that game against a superior opponent and the Mean Green were left saddened. It was his second crack at a league title in his six years in Denton. It was his last game coaching. Since that time, Eric Morris took over the program and in his third year has reached the American title game. This season will also be his last coaching at North Texas.
The circumstances, however similar, are miles apart. The 2022 team was a dark-horse in the league. To win the title game against an opponent they had faced already, they needed some good fortune and a superior game plan. That did not happen.
This Friday, Eric Morris has his team as a three-point favorite. The highest scoring team in land will see if 45-points can be had in rainy, cold conditions. “I asked Jon if we could move the game indoors so I could throw the ball around,” said Morris.
Jon Sumrall said, “I said I hope we get a monsoon. The Green Wave play better when it’s wet.”
Conference championships hold varying weight with people. This past week Georgia head coach Kirby Smart lamented that the SEC Championship game is not as important: “Does anybody care about that anymore?”
The College Football Playoff is certainly lucrative, and prestigious and for teams flush with cash a league title game appearance that could interfere with the national implications a title game can seem pesky, and unnecessary.
Of course, it is usually non-participants that dismiss the value of the game. I’ve seen losers of three CUSA title games walk off the field devastated — to the point of tears. No one cares, they say. Those guys did. It is hard to get to this point, and when it is over it is over for a lot of reasons. This team will be different next year. This could be the end. A bowl game would be fun, but the league is the challenge you work for all season.
This game is huge. It isn’t remunerative like a possible CFP berth. It isn’t a fun experience like a bowl game. It is a championship game. You get a trophy and will be remembered for as long as we keep records of these things.
No one remembers second place - Walt Hagen
The Mean Green boast the best offense in the nation, and Tulane has the fourth-best defense in the league by yards-per-play-allowed (58th in the nation)1
This will not be the November slate of cupcakes and pushovers. UAB, Charlotte, Rice, and Temple were not nearly good enough to slow the NT offense. Tulane has been vulnerable, but will be more like USF, South Alabama, and Army games where the defense was a little more stiff.
The skinny? Tulane is pretty solid at getting pressure on straight drop-backs. They do a good job of stopping the run, but they do a poor job of tackling in open space.
This clip from the UTSA game supports the advanced stats.
The Tulane squad hit the UTSA runner one yard behind the line of scrimmage, and he was tackled after 12-yards gained. That’s great news for broken-tackle machine Caleb Hawkins. I’m sure Jon Sumrall, between Florida Gator responsibilities, is encouraging a little extra tackling emphasis for this week. All-in-all, however, Tulane was a very good defensive team this year. They were dominated at UTSA, in a game where the Roadrunners simply gashed them on play-action all day and turned them over again and again.
How good is Tulane’s defense though? Well the top-7 in yards-per-play in the league were NT, USF, Navy, Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, and ECU. They did not play the top four (one because you cannot play yourself) and will play the top on Friday.
So against 5, 6, and 7:
Memphis: 6.3 yards per play 32-points allowed | 6.2 ypp, 34.6 points season average
UTSA: 7.58 yards per play 48-points allowed | 6.05 ypp 33.8 points season average
ECU: 4.66 yards per play 19-points allowed. | 5.93 ypp 33.5 points season average
North Texas is averaging 7.48 ypp and 46.8 points per game. North Texas is a more pedestrian 6.12 ypp against FBS winning squads. The numbers are boosted by some awful teams, yes. Eric Morris can send a thank-you note to the Rice, Charlotte, and UABs of the league for helping the numbers stay really gaudy.
But good teams blow out bad teams. We shouldn’t dismiss North Texas’ performance against the swamp things bottom of the league out of hand. It isn’t easy to score five touchdowns in the first half or else everyone — including Tulane — would be doing it.
The game in a nutshell, will be about Tulane finding a way to slow the Mean Green offense enough to make it a realistic contest.
Attacking Tulane
We mentioned the advanced stats, let’s get into it. The normal attack is going to be slightly compromised. You can of course, throw in the rain but it is harder to be precise. The ball is slippery, you can turn it over.
North Texas will happily test the Tulane defense with the run game, and see if they are ready and willing to tackle Caleb Hawkins. Tulane is focussing on him, but consider that so has everyone else so far with little to show for it.
Eric Morris’s team has been cold and a little wet in Kalamazoo, and a little bit at West Point. The offense isn’t overly reliant on throwing deep — that’s actually something of a new emphasis in recent weeks.2 The game plan has been short, quick stuff and a power run game with Caleb Hawkins. That’s the perfect recipe for a rainy game scenario anyway, so here’s hoping.
UTSA bewildered Tulane with a variety of play-action looks, but FAU’s Air Raid is the most similar to what North Texas runs3 FAU’s Veltkamp throws the ball a ton, but without the same level of accuracy and velocity as Mestemaker. He threw a couple of terrible interceptions (a theme all season) when he had guys wide open. North Texas’s QB has thrown only 4 interceptions this season, and three were vs USF. Tulane doesn’t have the same physicality as USF.
The North Texas Offensive Line has been getting tremendous praise for the run-blocking. The advanced numbers suggest the run lanes are about average nationally, and Caleb Hawkins is breaking a ton of tackles. We noted vs USF that the pass-protection was awful against the über-physicality of USF’s defensive line.
That said, USF leads the league in TFLs against the conference. Note once more that they haven’t played the top-five in yards-per-play so that number is influenced by their competition but we should give credit where due.
FAU had load of opportunities and if you submit yourself to watching highlights of that game, you will find a team that looks an awful lot like 2024 NT— a team that can move the ball between the sticks, but can’t punch it in, and turns the ball over.
That serves to highlight the incredible weapon that is Caleb Hawkins. He is seemingly an automatic Red Zone score and has made life tremendously easier for everyone. Last year we were criticizing Eric Morris’ decision-making on 4th-and-goals. I ask you now, can you remember the last 4th-and-goal for NT? Me either. The offense the last month has been Long Play, then Touchdown Hawkins.
We should mention — for those interested OSU peoples, and latecomers — that hidden among the big plays and huge gains are some weaknesses. We season-long enjoyers know them, but we’ll list them here:
Drops — Early in the season the squad had the dropsies. Wet weather will exacerbate that. Western Michigan built a nice little lead through ball-control and I imagine Tulane will try that again.
Pass Protection — Tulane blew up ECU with a ridiculous pass rush and will try to get to Mestemaker early.
Holding/Penalties — WR 80 held on a touchdown last week. There have been some mistakes that killed drives. This is a championship game, folks. Don’t lose the game by doing silly things.
Tulane will try to control the game. Last season they were happy to let the dominant run game carry the day. Powerful run game, then play-action. It was everyone’s game plan against a poor North Texas defense. Add to that some terrible turnovers (fumbled kick off return) and NT was playing behind early.
This NT squad is more explosive, but turnovers can easily let Tulane control the game. The offense needs to do their thing — that is, not hurt themselves.
Schematically they run a 4-2-5, and will likely try to keep some safeties high. If Caleb Hawkins is a problem, that should open up some stuff over the top for Young and others. No one has been really able to stop North Texas without getting to Mestemaker. Western Michigan benefited from drops and self-harm, but when NT started going in that second half they scored at will.
Tulane sat back in some zones vs FAU, and Veltkamp found lots of opportunities but also threw some terrible looks. UTSA sliced up this defense with play-action and I can see Morris mixing in some of that into the game plan. The secondary doesn’t scare you, but they will take advantage of poorly thrown passes. That is to say, they are a solid bunch but not physical marvels.
Best Case Scenario: More of the explosive offense we have seen. At worst, the USA-version that moved the ball but wasn’t as efficient. At best (vs a good team) vs Navy getting a two-score lead when it mattered.
Worst Case Scenario: The only game lost by NT was the USF game where the offense turned the ball over four times, and the offensive line was eaten up.
Defending Tulane
Retzlaff will throw interceptions.
The Tulane run game is about league average. They rely on play-action a lot, and Jake Retzlaff’s ability to use his legs as well. They’ve had four games against the league’s best rushing defenses and ran well vs UTSA (5.4 ypc) and Tulsa (4.3). For reference, NT also ran well vs UTSA (6.14 ypc) but worst against USF (3.69).
North Texas’ defense isn’t about being a boa constrictor, it is about high variance. The plan is to get enough stops via turnover and punts to get the offense a bigger lead. NT is 7th in the league in TFLs in league play with 41 TFLs. North Texas’ sack rate isn’t super great but a good portion of that is the schedule had a lot of run-first teams (Navy and Army are the least-sacked teams in the league and NT got one vs each). Against UTSA, the Mean Green put Owen McCown down four times.
Tulane’s Retzlaff is sacked fewer times than Mestemaker. He can get out and run, and can save possessions but when pressured he will throw ducks, loopers, and some what-in-the-hells. He threw two interceptions vs Charlotte — the worst pass-defense team in the league. North Texas? Well they are great at picking the ball off.
Skyler Cassity likes to find what the QB doesn’t like, and make him deal with it over and over again. Retzlaff will get locked into things, and throw off his back foot. If this were a heist situation — which it kind of is? — I’d say “this is our way in.”
Last year’s game was about Tulane doing ball control and taking the yards available via the run. North Texas’ 2024 run defense was awful, and Tulane moved the ball at will. The Mean Green are missing some guys along the defensive line and at linebacker and who knows where else. “We were at 3s and 4s,” Morris said vs Rice. You could see that the opponents run games were successful early, getting lots of yards before meeting resistance.
Cassity adjusted, but some of that is just winning. North Texas has been worn down about three times by my count. Western Michigan, Army, and USF. Only one broke the defense completely — the Bulls in Denton.
Navy wears you out mentally, USF physically and psychologically, and Tulane is about technique. They are a quiet fourth in league yards-per-play, down a bit from 2nd but just a tenth of a yard’s difference from last year’s solid team. North Texas and USF are just very good, at 7+ ypp.
What does that mean? Well if you thought that Tulane was beatable in Denton — the squad Army beat in the title game — then you’ll notice they are a very similar team. If you can stop that run game you can make Retzlaff throw, and he’ll throw you one.
Schematically, they do a lot of “pro” style looks. They use their tight ends, they do a lot of play-action. We saw last year that they will run some outside zone from under center. This season they operate more from Retzlaff’s favored shotgun position. They liked RPOs vs Army last month, and he was taking the arc/bubble options and even taking off on designed runs. North Texas is poor vs running QBs (WMU, USF, Army, Navy will do that to ya) and Retzlaff can do damage.
He can stand and throw it, and trusts his arm. That gets him into trouble, but sometimes the throws are picked because his teammates slip or are not on the same page. He makes some good decisions and is overall a dangerous player but he will make mistakes.
PFF says that he’s good when not under pressure (no surprise) but when blitzed his grade is a 64 — compare that with Mestemaker’s 81. There are levels to this. Curiously, he has been graded better when not throwing play-action balls. I imagine this is because he is seeing the field better instead of thinking through the options. Again, I think his processing is a bit slower compared to Mestemaker’s. Or maybe his guys are just not getting as open as quickly. Sometimes these are bad throws that get lucky.
His targets are mostly a bunch of smallish guys with good YAC. Bohanan is the primary slot receiver but Anthony Brown-Stephens has gotten the most targets — usually on some quick hitches on RPOs. The game-plan is to RPO you to death with some quick game, and then get you with some medium-to-long balls for bigger stuff. They hit Preston over the top on a play-action bomb from a pistol set and play-action vs Memphis, for example.
It’s well-designed and solid if the run game is powerful and productive. Javin Gordon is the primary back, but it’s Retzlaff’s legs (and 588 yards rushing to go with 14 scores) that are the danger.
The offensive line is not nearly as good as it was last year. Shadre Hurst is the highest graded OL by far. They do protect Retzlaff well, and that’s one reason Tulane sliced up Memphis so easily. The QB had all day to throw and its nearly impossible for someone to not get open with that much time.
North Texas will need to get pressure, else they will move the ball up and down.
Best Case Scenario: Something like the UTSA game — where turnovers and game state mean the Mean Green are in control and force the Tulane offense into one-dimensionality.
Worst Case Scenario: Think something like last year’s game vs Tulane, where NT is chasing the game and cannot get a stop.
The Game
It could be that Eric Morris — always one to get a little too hyped up and too amped up (see the Texas Tech, Cal games of the last couple of years) — is calmed by the storm of activity in the last few days. If North Texas can be the version that executed on the road early vs Army, late vs WMU, and early vs USF it will be fine. If they get too amped up and try to be overly complicated? Well that’s playing into Tulane’s hands.
Jon Sumrall was here last year, on the road in the title game. I’m sure he has some slight advantage in simple experience. Both teams will need to handle the drama of this being the last game with these coaches in this place. For Tulane, the roster is likely not going to travel to Gainesville with him. For North Texas — judging by the national signing day flips — will be heavily recruited to go to Stillwater with this staff.
All of that is to say that Tulane might be feeling like this is One Last Hurrah more than North Texas. That could mean a focus like no other, or it could be over-thinking while NT is remaining calm.
As it is, we’ve seen Morris and his team execute well vs (a weak) Temple squad last Friday. This is on the road, however. Even if North Texas has been perfect away, they’ve only faced two good teams away from DATCU. Charlotte, Rice and UAB are not exactly a gauntlet. Tulane is good, and good at home. They’ve beaten Northwestern, Duke, ECU, and Army in New Orleans this season. That’s a nice little trophy collection.4
Prediction: This will be tough, and a lot will ride on North Texas’ defense to get timely stops. They have — vs Army, vs WMU, vs Navy — and we’ve seen some good things from the depth chart to think that they won’t get run over. If last year’s defense was as good as this injured one? Well I think NT gives a better Tulane team a run.
The question is if North Texas’ offense can remain potent. I think it can, because Morris can lean on the run game. I think there will be an untimely turnover or two by both squads (nerves, and rain) and NT will prevail 42-31.
GMG
North Texas is 47th in the nation by this metric.
I write that fully acknowledging that the Mean Green try to throw it deep often, but it wasn’t super successful early in Mestemaker’s year, and he has recently only been killing teams with it.
ECU does some similar stuff, but their offensive line was simply overwhelmed.,
For completion’s sake, also Charlotte, and FAU
Good catch that I didn’t realize at first. Tulane and UNT’s 2024 starting QBs are playing in the ACC Championship.
https://x.com/guersmith/status/1996593416767934515?s=46&t=f5MMwc7KwnJelfoYjDPreA