2024 Week One: The Morning after the Offseason

Game Week: at South Alabama

Typically this space would be for reviewing Saturday’s game. Of course there is no game to review, but an offseason. That work was mostly done in the 2024 Season Preview. Buy the e-book if you want some more detail. Check out the detail about the defense here. Here is the post about the offense.

What Did We Learn?

This question is typically asked about the game, but we will ask it about the offseason. The team added depth along the defensive line, the linebacking group, and the safety trio. It is a good way to improve the nation’s worst defense. We liked what we saw in spots, but that was obliterated by the absolute awfulness late in games or in other spots.

Offensively, the team added a starting QB — which is JOB ONE — and filled out the depth chart. Beyond that there was depth added to the rest of the offense. The question is the offensive line, and we do not know what we will be missing.

What Is The Expectation?

Various outlooks and previews have NT at about at 5-6 win team. The MGN Season Preview (podcast, and e-book) had us at about 8 wins, and that is not doubt because of my heavily tinted green glasses. I think 8 is reachable, and 5-6 is, well, the minimum number. Eric Morris says “We have to get a bowl game” and that would be six wins.

It is a little difficult to evaluate the head coach’s progress in building the program in this NIL era, as we have little data. Sure, there are teams that are doing things, but there are so many moving parts that we do not know if it is good or bad. I had hot sports opinions about the terrible start last year, but I do understand that Eric Morris was making a choice. The good news is that he will not need to start Year One again. From here on out it is about improving what he has already established.

It is a culture thing. What does it look like to practice? What does it look like to be a good teammate? What does it look like to be a good representative of the program? That was established year one — fits and starts acknowledged — and throughout the offseason.

Next Week: South Alabama

We will have a bigger preview about Wednesday or so, but here is a quick snapshot of USA.

Head Coach: Major Applewhite - first year there, after three years as OC. He previously was at Houston and has spent about 20 years in coaching after the four years as a player at Texas.

Offense: Applewhite has learned from some very good coaches and runs a modern spread offense with a lot of vertical throws and RPO and play-action stuff backed by a QB run game. It’s a modern spread offense. They were explosive last year and even better than in 22, but were stymied by Troy, ULL, and James Madison.

Defense: Kane Womack, the head coach, left for Alabama to do the defensive coordinating. South Bama was pretty good and in 22 were a 10-3 team. Last year they regressed a little to 7-6. Texas State put 55 on them and the previous year WKU destroyed them in the Bowl game.

The QB Gio Lopez is big — 6’0” 220lbs — and runs like a bowling ball. Expect to see a lot of play-action and RPO stuff and other things where he can use his legs to change the angles. He’s young, and hasn’t seen a whole lot but NT had a lot of trouble with mobile QBs last year (Cal, Temple for example).

Like NT, Applewhite will have to replace his triplets — QB, RB, WR. Just like NT, the RB and WR were 1000+ guys. The QB situation is slightly different as Gio Lopez got time in the bowl game and played well. Still, it will be something different than what the tape shows.

You’ll see a base 4-2-5 look, but with a new defensive coordinator and new faces we can probably expect to see something different.

The NT Depth Chart

From the game notes this morning:

Interesting is that Conwright is at X, and Ward is at Z. We expected Sides at H, and I see Sheffield is at Y. Also how about the freshman Tipton on the depth chart? Also, Hammond is at the starting TE role, which we all saw coming thanks to the preseason work.

There is still a week of practice and preparation so I wouldn’t place any bets based on the Monday depth chart. All depth charts are just snapshots anyway. You are the top player until you aren’t, which could happen at any time based on injury, play, and circumstance. Such is life.

Outlook

NT is something like a +6.5 dog in this game, which is reasonable all things considered. South Alabama was a bowl champion (at 7-6) and has an established program that is two seasons from being 10-3. Meanwhile NT had a losing season, the worst defense in the nation against a good offense that lost its triplets, and two seasons from a blowout loss in the CUSA championship game.

This is a winnable game. I do not mind starting things out with a challenge. You would always like some version of a ramp up, but a good team on the road? That’s what college football is all about, buddy. If you want a big crowd out there in week two, you go out and make some noise at South.