2024 Football: Wyoming Preview
2024 Football: Wyoming Preview
It is time to come home, celebrate, and take our frustrations out on some unsuspecting cowboys
September 21・6:00pm ・DATCU Stadium・Denton, America ・ESPN+ ・MGRN
Forgive us. This preview is tardy.
This week MGN spend a couple of hours putting together the Film Room video. It is very log (1 hour 10 minutes) and I apologize for that. I got carried away. I encourage you to watch it — there are chapter markers and the whole thing so you can always go to something that interests you now, etc.
The Nation is hurting from the big loss to Texas Tech. It is normal. We should feel a little sting from our favorite football team getting whooped in front of 128K television viewers or whatever it was. It was a missed opportunity and it hurt the chances to sell out DATCU this week.
The season is not over, however. Job security may have changed after this game, but everyone that is paid to prepare the team is still on the payroll. The checks come on the first and the fifteenth and they clear. So we expect work to be done.
“It was embarrassing,” said Head Coach Eric Morris. It was and is. The thing about all of it is that it happened so quickly. We didn’t even look at the defense in the second half as the game was over in the 2nd quarter. NT got caught in an “avalanche.” That was what Wyoming coach Jay Sawvel said about it.
“We aren't going to judge a team when an avalanche hits. We went through that at Arizona State, where you give up a couple touchdowns and it hits. They had a 5-6 play stretch where everything changes. It was 17-7 in the second quarter. It's not a reflection on them. We've all been there. Sometimes in the attempt to dig yourself out of a hole you dig a bigger hole. There score last week and our score this week don't mean jack squad.”
Yes, it does happen. Coaches know it can and that’s why they are so paranoid about turnovers and momentum and all the rest. They know that sometimes when you allow one play to swing things you get “60 thousand people cheering” and suddenly you cannot do anything right. MGN was hoping the opposite would happen, that a team that was struggling would make a mistake and the 60K would get nervous and that would be felt by the players. The confines will be friendlier this week but the same worry is present.
So we turn our attention to Wyoming. Are they good? In lots of manners of speaking and metrics - -no, they are not. They come into Denton 0-3 and Sawvel said “I know they [North Texas] are thinking ‘this is the time to get right vs a team that doesn’t complete a lot of passes.’”
“Their defense vs our offense is going to be telling thing. We need to establish some things. We are going to need to create some things. We are going to have to score some points. We can't have misfires. We had some openings. We got to put on people. We are all good. I have faith in Evan (Svoboda). If I didn't see a really good defense out there then my concern levels would go up. I look out there and see good at all three levels.”
That about sums it up, doesn’t it? We have a Wyoming team with some different pieces than the one that won 9 games last year, and a struggling offense. Evan Svoboda is a big ol’ hoss at QB and will run it a little, but he has struggled to put the ball on time and on target.
North Texas Attacking Wyoming
Wyoming has eight returning starters defensively for a good defense that allowed only 5.25 yards per play last year and 22.3 points per game. They upset Tech last year on the way to winning a bowl game. This season, they were pasted by Arizona State, lost to Idaho, and also BYU. The terrible offense contributes to the defensive slippage, as they are at 11 ppg. Gone is former QB Peasley and in is Svoboda, a 6’5” prototypical looking QB. He is only completing 42% of his passes and a lot of that is his own fault. “We got to put it on people” said the head coach. The running back is a converted DB (who converted from running back). We essentially see a team that is hurting for offensive competency, but has good size and good physicality.
For North Texas the goal will be to clean up mistakes, increase physicality, and execute. Th offensive line looked improved vs the SFA game, where the snaps were clean and there was just one procedure penalty. Against the Tech backups the line was producing good holes and NT moved the ball. It is not super impressive, but it isn’t a small thing either. Duncan is back, and that had a lot to do with the improvement. Still, there are weaknesses and Morris is having to get the ball out quick for fear of gettin stuck in the mouth.
NT is throwing a lot of short stuff because 1) that’s the offense and 2) that’s how you get Morris to stay upright.
There was good in the NT offense last week, but the drops were back. Damon Ward is likely injured and out for this one even if he’s listed on the chart. He has struggled since breaking out in week one vs South Alabama, with some glaringly bad drops. DT Sheffield has disappeared since his breakout first half vs SFA, and Wyatt Young alternates between hero (75-yard score) and zero (dropped passes leading to interceptions).
Freshman wide receivers are notoriously unreliable so we will be kind and gentle BUT North Texas is in a position where they need those talented freshman to step up.
This is why even though Kyle Koch had some awful drops our biggest concern was with Conwright and Ward dropping those. Senior receivers need to be rock solid, and on it goes for all upperclassmen.
The new week brings new opportunity, however.
Wyoming brings a 4-2-5 look to the game. They are coordinated by Aaron Bohl, who also coaches linebackers. Head coach Sawvel was the previous coordinator before being promoted to the head job after the retirement of the previous man. The Wyoming squad is not as good defensively as they were last year, as I mentioned. They still are aggressive and solid, and are getting healthier in some spots.
DT Jordan Bertagnole and LB Sae Suiaunoa were on some preseason watch lists. Thus far they have played better competition than the normal MWC fare, and Sawvel said about the BYU game: “We didn't do the things we need to do to win the game. We had a narrow lane to win that game. We needed to be +2 to win, we were even. We needed to be very good on special teams and we gave up a return touchdown.”
In all, do not be surprised if North Texas can’t fly up and down the field against this defense. They can be frustrating, and have a good defensive line with experienced backers. Idaho was able to get some push, and had some 4th down touchdowns deep into the redzone but were limited to 17 points. Sure, it was an FCS team, but my point is that they are a solid team. BYU was limited to 34 even though they were superior.
That said, some of their success is due to the altitude in Laramie. Everyone plays better at home, but they are very good up there. Texas Tech lost last year in Laramie in part because they could not go tempo after a while.
Mean Green Defending the Cowboys
Evan Svoboda is like pre-NFL Josh Allen. He is big and can run a bit, with a big arm but he’s so raw it is mostly potential at this point. The line is experienced and has four returners but they’ve had center problems. Svoboda is 6'5" but the center managed to snap it over his head vs Idaho. They are struggling to generate any kind of offense that is not running the ball right now. Svoboda has had success in keepers but they mostly just do not do anything at all. Idaho allowed 144 rush yards to this team but Arizona State and BYU kept them under 100, with State keeping them below 40. The Cowboys have not managed more than 200 yards passing either.
I think Wyoming is going to try to out-physical North Texas, taking what inspiration they can from the Tech game. North Texas will have a chance to right some wrongs in that respect. Wyoming will go single back under center, but like a variety of formations with two tight ends in there. The backs are not super big so it is about creating enough space for them to sneak their way through. North Texas has to be extra disciplined in their run lanes so to not allow a sneaky cut back. For the most part this season they have been good in that respect, except for the Tech game where they were charging up ahead after getting beat on some gap runs early.
Svoboda has a big arm but he is not accurate. He misses short, long, medium, and throws it too hard when he should put tough. He got picked on the first play vs Arizona State as he was just not reading the defense and instead going where he thought the ball should go. If North Texas stays disciplined, they should be solid in the pass game. Even if he completes a couple, he so far has shown that he has a lot to work on. Sawvel acknowledged this, and called out the near-misses. “We have to score against this team.”
Overall
Wyoming is not good, but they aren’t terrible. They aren’t hapless and falling over themselves. It is more of a situation where they are missing a QB that can make easy plays and move the offense. That would unlock a lot of their situation where they can be a run-and-defend team with some smart QB play mixed in. You know, like the previous year where the senior QB threw for 20 scores against just six interceptions. They are a program that is happy to have a game-manager but they aren’t getting that.
Offensively, NT should have enough scheme+QB play to get 31 points or so, and add some talent things and short fields and you can get up to 40+. That is assuming some better play from young players. Again, that is the situation Wyoming is in with their QB. We should be wary of a veteran team and a winning program.
In the preseason I called this a 30-28 win and I’ll stick with something like that. I don’t know that Wyoming can get 28 after watching their QB, but I think this will be closer than we think. The spread was -9.5 and has moved to -7 in our favor.
I’m wary of Svoboda getting a sudden moment of clarity in his fourth game of the year and unlocking some new accuracy. It happens. I’m thinking it is more likely he has some interesting drive or one or two big throws that puts points on the board.
37-13 North Texas.
GMG