2024 Football: Texas Tech Preview
2024 Football: Texas Tech Preview
A big opportunity amongst the tumbleweeds
Saturday September 14, 2024 ♦︎ Lubbock, TX ♦︎ Jones AT&T Stadium (60,454)
FS1 ・MGRN : Sirius 380 | 97.1 The Eagle | The Varsity Network
The biggest game of the season is always the next one. It is a cliché to be sure, but all overused phrases become so for having some truth in them. The TTU brand is a bigger one than little old North Texas for sure. They have more money and more history and more of a lot of things. And yet, NT is 4-4 against these Red Raiders.
I’ve long said that if you put NT in a league with Texas and TAMU for 25 years that little old NT wouldn’t be so little any longer. Pull out a Baylor or a TTU and they wouldn’t be so big for much time either. My anecdotal evidence is SMU, Rice, and TCU. For you youngin’s you might not remember when the Horny Toads were just another also-ran in the state, going to the WAC, the Mountain West, and CUSA before finally re-joining Texas in the Big 12. They always had money but suddenly they got a lot more when they had some big ESPN/Fox money coming in. TCU used to sell the big games separately — when Texas Tech came to town for example — because they didn’t want to get overrun.
So it goes.
NT has an opportunity. The team and the coaches talked up the chance to “show off the program” and what it is about. This is how it is done. You have to beat the “big” boys when you get a chance to do so. North Texas hosts Wyoming next week and wants to sell out DATCU. One way to do that would be to have a big week of news reports talking up a 3-0 NT after having slayed the Red Raiders in Lubbock. In 2018, NT took a 2-0 team to Arkansas and put a nice whooping on the Razorbacks — Chandler Morris’ dad was the coach — on the way to setting and attendance record in the Louisiana Tech matchup later in the year. People will come when there is a good product on the field. It has to be reliably good. Furthermore, this is one of those where Morris and his program can jump up and make some noise for the future. Recruits, bowls, news media, and of course latent fans will be excited to see a win in Lubbock. For those reasons and the normal get-better-each-week-and-beat-the-guys-in-front-of-you ones, North Texas has to win.
Texas Tech Overview
Tech is coached by Joey McGuire, and were picked 9th in the Big 12. They return some talent from last year on both sides of the ball but so far haven’t put it together. They are 1-1 on the year, having beat Abilene Christian in overtime 52-51 and then lost to Washington State 16-37 in Pullman.
The Red Raiders are coached by Joey McGuire, a former HS coach at Cedar Hill. He has a lot of ties with the TTU-related staff at NT, including a relationship with head coach Eric Morris from when he was a high school coach and sent his daughter to Tech. Morris helped McGuire’s daughter after she got in a traffic accident. The offense is run by Zach Kittley, formerly of Houston Baptist and WKU (Bailey Zappe, etc). Kittley was also the GA under Morris while he coached at TTU, and later coached at HBU while Morris was at UIW. The defense is run by former Fresno State head coach Tim DeRuyter.
Career record for McGuire 16-12 in three seasons. This is his first college gig.
For Morris: 31-25 in six years, 7-7 at NT. This will be the first meeting between the two vs these programs.
The last time NT played Tech was in 2001, at Texas Stadium. NT lost 42-14 in a matchup of Mike Leach and Darrell Dickey.
This weekend Wes Welker (among others) will be entered into the Tech Ring of Honor.
At this week’s coach’s press conference Joey McGuire talked up how important playing better defense is. ACU put up 51 and 500+ on them, and Wazzu sliced them up with the QB run game. NT is more like ACU than WSU but both run similar offenses. It is really about talent distribution. Eric Morris noted that Tech played well in the first half but “things get weird at night in Pullman” and there were interceptions and mistakes that added up. “Take out the QB runs and I think they played well”.
North Texas Defending The TTU Attack
Tech is very much a modern Air Raid squad. You see them go fast, cheetah fast, racecar fast and all the rest. They do multiple formations and like TEs to get size mismatches. The idea is to get the ball to playmakers in space — sound familiar?
They like to use tight ends to create mismatches in the red zone and on short yardage stuff. The behemoth tight end is Mason Tharp is 6'9" 270 — built like an undersized tackle. They started the game vs Washington St with that in mind and came out in an empty look but shifted 80 over to block the line. So some six-man protection but instead of a undersized running back blocking, it was essentially six-offensive lineman. Behren Morton scrambled for about eight on the play. It was clever.
Beyond that, the main dude is Tahj Brooks, he of the 1,500 yards last year. He is questionable vs NT, but know that he is a game-changer. He’ll get split out and moved around to keep NT on their toes. Expect to see some of their bigger wideouts, or more dynamic playmakers get lined up in space with Morton throwing the ball out quickly to see what the defense is made of.
You’ll also see 80 lined up wide in bunch with two smaller, quicker players behind him. The idea is to throw it out quickly for screens. The Tech twitteratti were upset at the number of “screens” but if you know anything about the Air Raid you know that the quick throws are an extension of the run game. You take the free yards — 3/4/5 yard gains and then throw it over the top when the setup is there.
Here is an example of that idea, but failed.
When North Texas fans say they are worried about how some SFA dudes were running free they are worried about things like this. McGuire said that he thought the QB was just pressing, trying to make up for the absence of his guy Brooks in the backfield. Chandler Morris also missed some things, but none as egregious. Morris also said some of those were route things. This answers some of the questions we had Monday.
The thing is that North Texas is outsized in this area. The Tech offensive line is good, talented, and big but are a little banged up. Vinny Sciury is out for the year and so ther is a little migration happening up front. Caleb Rogers is moving over to guard, even though he can play tackle. If there is a vulnerability, it is in this are. As we see in Colorado and at North Texas, it doesn’t matter how good the skill positions are if the offensive line cannot move as one.
Behren Morton is a good QB with a big arm. He can get wayward with those throws.
I will take those all day. Unfortunately, he was very good vs ACU at home and this game will not be played on the western coast of the United States. Last year Tech relied more on Tahj Brooks for offense. Despite throwing for five scores vs ACU, he looked rattled and well, pressed. He missed easy ones and had a 1:2 TD:INT ratio.
North Texas has good corners, but they don’t matchup well in a jump-ball contest. We have seen UTSA and SMU pick on Texada for those kinds of things with success. That’s not a knock, as everyone has a weakness. NT is about speed and a renewed physicality up front. SFA is not Tech, however, and getting through the line to pressure Morton will be a real challenge.
McGuire called the defense “it’s Iowa State so yeah, a lot of familiarity.” It’s true. Morton hasn’t played vs Iowa State, however and Tech and the Cyclones didn’t meet last year. The final was 14-10 a couple of years ago. I wouldn’t hate holding Tech under 20 folks.
The realistic shot is that NT gets some takeaways and forces a longish drive. Keep the Tech offense making the short passes and wait for a mistake. Big plays are poison.
What to look for: The center got pushed back on a few plays by Wazzu’s defense. They are looking to get the freshman Micah Hudson in the offense more, but he plays behind Caleb Douglas, who is a big 6'4" wideout. Coy Eakin is 6’2” 210 and can run. He was recruited by Morris while at Washington State. Tech does a lot of motion, looking to find Douglas (5) in the flats, and get the defense stepping up and will throw it over the top. They ran a Ninja looking set a few times and baited Washington State to change their looks outside. Then they were happy to run it for five yards against a lighter box.
If Tahj Brooks plays, expect a lot of him early and often. If he doesn’t, expect some run game action and a lot of quick arcs, bubbles, and wide receiver screens.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: NT gets a few turnovers as Morton tries to press the issue. The crowd gets restless as the 4th downs don’t go their way.
WORST CASE: NT is overwhelmed by size and strength and cannot tackle or handle the big wideouts. The game catches up to them and Tech blows it away late.
North Texas Attacking TTU’s Defense
The strength of this North Texas team is the offense. We had a little worst-case-scenario last week when the offense did a little self-destruction. The line was injured — Dickson was playing center and Peterson was out with an arm injury. NT had a make-shift line vs a defense that was doing some new stuff and so Chandler Morris looked pedestrian.
Texas Tech has not played well defensively. They are in the 100s in a few categories, something that got McGuire talking about in his press conference. “It starts on defense.” Tech plays a multiple defense that bases out of the 4-2-5. You’ll see two big tackles in Ledet and Lux. They are 300+ but not space-eaters. You could see Washington State move them a bit, and get seams for the QB run game. Eric Morris talked about how the QB run game was what separated them … but that’s what Washington State does. I will not say NT will win the battle here, but I can see a stalemate if the line is back to full health. If Dickson is trying to remember the snap count while 60K are screaming we are in for more penalties.
Stephen F Austin killed the pass protection and Morris said “We have to get better at pass pro.” He said they worked on exotic looks, and motion in blitz pickup period this week and I imagine that will be a huge point of emphasis in the game plan. Overall NT was good and opened up the game late with the run game but Tech won’t tire as easily as SFA.
Suffice it to say that Tech is more of a pass-defend-first squad. The ends —or OLBs as they call them. are tall and prototypical 4-2-5 ends at 6-2/3 ish and 250-270. One is a little heavier — the anchor end that is to the strong side and the other is lighter and a pass-rush specialist that can drop into coverage. You’ll see an odd-front look on some obvious passing downs. Nothing amazing. The coverage looks like it is split-field stuff, with the occasional single-high to mix it up.
Chandler Morris called out 17 Isaac Smith at 6'6" and the corner 0 Braylyn Lux as good players.
The main thing is that Abilene Christian is about as talented as NT is. They have some former NT guys in Cleveland and Johnson, and a good QB. They were able to run their base stuff straight up with no special tricks. Tech knew what ACU was running. They knew what Washington St was running. They know what UNT will run. It is always a matter of execution.
The main thing is that Tech is not blowing up any plays. They aren’t getting out of position or doing anything poor, but are just losing small battles. Their defensive line is getting pushed back a yard or two, their corners are getting beat by an inch or two. And so on and so forth.
Morris is as-good or better than ACU’s McIvor passing. He is about 70% of Mateer’s running ability. He can produce a 300+ 3/4 TD game. That’s a given. If he can clean up those interceptions — Morris said those were him and the WRs running bad routes — and clean up the accuracy he should be fine. He has thrown for big yards against big programs before (400+ against Baylor with TCU) and should not be fazed by the crowd or the moment.
The question is the offensive line. Three/fifths of the line are day-to-day. The other guys got beat up and are coming off some minus-grade football last week. Tech isn’t going to set any defensive records in the Big 12 but they have talent.
Beyond that, NT needs step-up games from Ward, Conwright, and Sheffield. Yes, DT Sheffield had a good game but was spooked by the muffed punt. The head coach said “He was probably scared later, and has to forget about that and be himself.”
QB Morris says the 15 penalties were “addressed” and I figure this is the aforementioned time spent on blitz-pickup and pass protection. Mercer and Duncan are both day-to-day and here’s hoping that means Dickson doesn’t have to play a ton. Still, Coach Morris said Dickson has to know the snap count and make the play. It’s a young-player problem and more repetitions will help.
The worst case scenario is that NT gets beat up and learns how to play at the required level. As Coach Morris said, there are a bunch of young guys on the team. Even the transfers haven’t played a lot of football. The answer? Play more football.
Ragsdale is still listed on the two-deep but he looked banged up. You see Damashja Harris as the co-RB1 out there, and Zach Evans and McGill were mentioned. Evans could have played last week but “we wanted to get him another week of reps.”
What to look for: Is the offensive line keeping Morris upright and creating push in short-yardage. Is Morris on-time, on-target on the routine throws? If he is, we can be excited. Texas Tech is good, but very beatable.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: NT is crisp like vs South (a comparable defense) and moves the ball early and often.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Interceptions and sacks.
Special
It feels icky to complain about Price in football terms only. He was an outstanding returner, and had long kick returns each week. I don’t know that NT directly replaces him, but DT Sheffield is the guy tabbed by the squad right now.
Overall
It should not be lost on us that NT is an underdog. The P4 level is a level above in a lot of ways. Guys might not play to their level, but they have something that gets them a scholarship to the Big 12. Eric Morris said about Incarnate Word’s trip to Denton in 2018 that he doesn’t like the idea of making a big deal about going home. He is applying that to this week, apparently. Chandler Morris said “He’s the same old coach Morris”
From MGN’s interview:
This Saturday, a good number of UIW will be making a return to their home town. “Overrated in my opinion.”
“I think that turns into a distraction. They want to play different than how they did in practice because their family is there. Naturally, adrenaline is flowing, we are playing an FBS School. That's going to be all there. That stuff should be there. If it isn't you shouldn't be playing football.”
“Everyone wants to represent their city -- lalala. Just because I think it causes them to focus on something besides what their task is. And so we've been big on tasks this week -- focusing on their tasks -- just because that's what we did bad last week. For a sustained amount of time. Haven’t played it up. Played up the fact that A) we are going to play a team that just basically stomped a mud hole in SMU in the first game of the year. That's a great opportunity for us to go out on national TV and prove that you do belong.”
North Texas has every opportunity to win this game. Texas Tech is not very good and it smells like the Arkansas game of 2018. That North Texas team was experienced and very good, however. This version of NT is young but talented. We cannot directly compare the two.
Still, the Tech offense is turnover prone, which is exactly the kind of thing this NT defense needs: a little help. The Tech defense is weak, and NT is explosive. I like the idea here. Of course the mitigating factors are that the NT squad is injured along the offensive line.
In 2018 the squad was helped with turnovers and special teams and will need the same on Saturday morning.
In the e-book I said NT would struggle vs Big 12 talent and so I will stick with it while hoping I am very wrong.
at TTU — Loss 38–21