2024 Football: at South Alabama Preview

Let's do this thing

Like any good previewer the more I look into this football team the more I think North Texas will lose. This is the essence of why coaches are skeptics, and worried about everyone no matter how minnow-like they are.

It’s been 12-years since we have played this squad. In 2012 we were leaving the Sun Belt — a very different league than it is now — for CUSA and (we thought) greener pastures. NT was pre-bowl version and needed an 85-yard Brandin Byrd TD to pull away. Here is MGN on the game.

South Alabama is coming off a bowl win — a comprehensive destruction of Eastern Michigan in Kane Wommack’s final game at the helm of the ship. He left for Alabama’s defensive coordinator job. This bowl win was USA’s first in their short FBS history. Now manning the head coach’s head set: one Major Applewhite. You might remember when he was a fresh-faced QB in Austin. If you do, you are getting on in years like yours truly over here. He graduated, went on to be a graduate assistant and coordinator of offenses for Mack Brown and Nick Saban. Then he got a head job at Houston (after some time at OC at Rice) and then after getting the can, he landed at Mobile. His offenses have been explosive and good. As a head coach he used a lot of tempo, and power spread ideas. He also likes to throw the ball down the field.

The real turnaround for USA was with Womack, who engineered a tough defense and then added a good enough, explosive offense that would be modern but also compliment his defensive philosophy. That is to say he liked to run the ball and throw it down the field.

We can imagine that Major Applewhite has added some of the Saban, and Womack ideas of program building to his locker. We know that two seasons ago South peaked. They won ten games. Last year it was just seven against six losses. They had their returning QB but he was lost to injury. They rotated a couple of guys but early reports are that we will see Gio Lopez, a 6'0" 220lb QB with some acceleration and a live arm.

Mobile is in Alabama, so forgive me for noticing that USA has access to a fertile ground for big ol’ offensive lineman. They like to get the ones that can move, and come around on a power/counter and knock the snot out of you as their tailback and/or QB comes around through the gap. It’s football, in other words.

When they are good, they look real good. In the 68 Ventures Bowl vs an overmatched Eastern Michigan, they were throwing that ball deep to speedy wideouts who were too fast.¹ They were pushing around a slight Eastern Mich defense and knocking everyone down on the way. There was one play where Lopez misread a zone read, and handed the ball off, got in front of his RB, and led the blocking caravan as the back scored. It was that kind of night.

North Texas of 2023 would have allowed 400 yards rushing against this South team. The hope is that we do not repeat that kind of outing.

In looking at the South recent history I was struck at how good the Sun Belt was. Troy just absolutely crushed this team’s soul with a running game and a suffocating defense. They had an 8-minute 4th quarter drive — a very old-school kind of thing that kills the game. Troy was good — they won the league — and USA did not do well against them. James Madison beat them also.² So is this team good or what? The answer is “yes” they have a lot of talent, and have good ideas on both sides of the ball.

The good? It is a roster in transition — 53 new guys including 25 transfers. The bad? They are a solid program.

North Texas Stopping USA’s Offense

This is really the key every week. After a year (again) as the worst defense in the nation, we simply must discuss this side of the ball before anything else.

USA Offense vs NT Defense

In one preview a long time ago I wrote about how good the other team was. A certain Mr. Cobbs messaged me to tell me that it doesn’t matter, and when it is time to play it is time to play. This is of course, very true.

It’s not the only thing that matters, or the only important thing, but it is a factor. South has five 300+lb lineman that can move in the run game. NT allowed 255 yards rushing per game last year. For context, Navy and NT finished 1-2 in the American in yards per game rushing at 194, 192 respectively³. NT’s opponents would have led the league by sixty yards per game. Nationally, NT opponents would have finished third behind Liberty and Air Force in rush yard per game.

NT opponents basically spammed the run game with great success all year long. The pass-defense was also leaky at times (see Memphis, SMU games) but the real weakness was in stopping the run.

The tight end DJ Thomas-Jones is a big dude at 6'2" 256lbs who has a big catch radius. He will also gloat a ton, so look out for that. He caught 27 for 235 and 5 scores last year. He will be a red zone threat, no doubt. Applewhite is happy to send his tight ends vertical and throw it up to them. Meanwhile, they have some burners on the outside. Javon Ivory is a big 6'2" and can run, and Devin Voisin is speedy. The real danger is Jamaal Pritchett at 5'8" 175, though. He caught 57 for 800+ on 15+ yard per catch.

Combine all the run action — with moving guards and tackles — and they like to find matchups and toss it up there. I expect to see Applewhite trying to find some size to matchup against Texada and throw it up there. I also expect to see Pritchett test the safeties deep.

The key, as it always is, is to get to the QB and make him rush those throws. The Belt’s best did a good job of stymying this offense by doing the fundamentals right. Eastern Michigan, ULL, and others were obliterated because they were pushed off the ball, and could not run with the receivers. This is an excellent test of the improvement of the Caponi defense. South has talent and are well coached, but aren’t a bunch of P4 guys who would run over every and anyone.

Notes

• Lots of 11 personnel — one TE and one back, with three wideouts.

• They scheme against their own tendencies and had some nice, clever calls getting Eastern Michigan in weird positions. Like a WR cross screen action with a running back snuck out. The linebackers were all crossed up and they got a 1st on 3rd and 12.

• They will also use some 12 personnel looks, with the tight ends going vertical against some safeties.

• They’ll throw it to everyone, lots of dynamic dudes on the squad. Backs, WRs, TEs. The backup QB Trotter threw a little shovel pass over a backer, which kind of tells you the kind of thing they encourage out there. They have fun and aren’t afraid of people trying to make plays.

• Lopez is big, and we should expect lots of QB power runs on short downs — really and any down.

North Texas Attacking USA’s Defense

NT offense against USA defense

NT had one of the best offenses in the nation, and dare I say it left meat on the bone. Ja’Mori Maclin was good — he had 11 TDs through nine games — but he probably could have been targeted more, or got open more. I may be blowing smoke, but it certainly felt that way.

NT brings back Ward (at Z), Conwright (X), and Sides (H) who were big parts of the offense. They add DT Sheffield (Y) at an important inside WR position as well. There is a mix of potential and experience here, but nothing to the level of what Maclin did last year. Then again, Maclin didn’t have a huge resume before breaking out in this offense in 2023, either. I am bullish on this thing. Chandler Morris is an experienced QB in this system and overall, with box scores to back up his practice film. There is every reason to believe he can throw for 3,000 and at least 25 TDs this season. The question is if he can get winning drives. That is to say, can you score when you need to score? NT were in one-score games eight times last year and went 3-5. They had game-winning drive opportunities vs FIU, Tulane, and Navy. They did score go-ahead drives vs Memphis and UAB. NT needs more stops, but also some more winning drives from the offense.

Beyond that they need consistency. NT went down 21 twice in back-to-back weeks. Slow starts were common, and necessitated big comebacks vs FIU, Tulane, and Memphis. Those are the questions. Again, the talent is there.

The line is reconfigured but has returners in Duncan, Blair, and Asenuga and experience with Peterson.⁴ They will be doing zone blocking, and some power stuff just like every college offense. Last year was productive in both passing and blocking, and there is a high standard at NT.

Some of the sacks we saw can be put on the QBs. Last year’s starter Chandler Rogers probably held the ball a few seconds too long, trying to make plays with his feet or his arm. You can blame the wideouts, too if you want. The point is that there are probably some sacks that can be avoided with different choices. The QB is given a ton of freedom at the line, so if the call is to something that has no one open … that still is a QB problem, folks.

Keep an eye out for Oscar Hammond in the pass game. He’s a tall TE who impressed over the spring and summer. He will stretch the defense in the seams and flats and be the security blanket on little stick/option routes in the five-to-six yard areas.

South Alabama is a base 4-2-5 squad with NG Wy’Kevious Thomas charged with blowing up the interior. Maurice strong is the other, pass rusher DT and Jayln Durgan is the anchor end (Bandit in their terminology.) Aakil Washington and courtney McBride Jr are the “Wolf” players — a hybrid linebacker/pass rusher type. Brian Dillard and Jordan Scruggs are the “Husky” guys — a Star/Joker/Nick type third safety type in the 200lb range. The linebackers are Blayne Myrick and Gavin Forsha (Mike and Sting, respectively). Ricky Fletch and Reggie Neely are the corners — Neely is a boundary guy. The free safety is Jaden Voisin (the brother of Devin) and the strong safety aka Rover is Mike Harris.

All in all you can say the defensive secondary is lighter, but has speed. This is typical for the Sun Belt however.

It is notable that Texas State lit up this defense. The Bobcats are just about the nearest to NT-like we can see on the schedule. James Madison was good also but USA avoided App State and Georgia Southern, two of the Belt’s best offenses. Their pass defense was very suspect with guys just walking by. Troy could have thrown for more than their 276 but were happy to eat clock. They tossed it to their WR Chris Lewis for whatever they wanted. He had three scores.

Texas State and Tulane averaged 6+ yards per play on this defense. Texas State was able to run well when they wanted, and gashed them for a big gain on a DART play (backside tackle pulling around to lead). South’s defense looked a little light, and were getting pushed around. They did manage to get a hand on a pass on the line against TJ Finley — the 6'7"former Tx St QB and get an interception. All in all they seem very vulnerable. The defensive line looks okay but the rest of the squad looks a little light. Add to that the departure of Kane Wommack to Alabama to be the DC, and you have lost the lead organizer of the group. I smell opportunity.

Notes:

• Like most teams the 4-2-5 they play here is now a 3-3-5 also. That Wolf is a hybrid as well, like a “Jack”. Expect them to play a lot of Mint fronts (Wolf away from Husky) in some sets. It was something Kirby Smart started after learning how Tom Herman and company got Bama away from their normal rules in the 4-2-5 looks.

• At least one of their DBs who was getting worked over by Texas St is gone, but the rest were there I believe. I do not know they have upgraded.

• Voisin is a returner and all-Sun Belt guy, Webb Jr is a transfer from Oklahoma St. but is currently an OR on the depth chart.

• South only allowed 11 rushing TDs last year, but again, they didn’t play many teams that were very good. Central Michigan ran for 4, Troy for 1 (but threw for 3) and Texas St ran for 2 against them.

• The same can be said of their pass defense in the league — they led in yards against vs the league but that was helped by playing ULL and Southern Miss, the bottom two of the Belt. Tulane, Troy, Texas State, James Madison and even an FCS squad threw for big yards. The FBS squads there threw for 9.9+ per attempt, including 19+ for Tulane on 14/15 passing. They all had multiple TDs on them. Against a good offense they will allow points.

Special

Kicking and punting and returning kicks are all a big part of the game but I also consider them a function of talent. If you are scoring touchdowns you don’t need a kicker to bang in 50-yard field goals. If we do need that 50+ yarder, I don’t know what we have. There was a kicking competition and the new guy won. Let’s hope he only kicks PATs.

Same goes for the other guy. If we are holding them to field goals that is fine.

Beyond that, the return game is about the talent to tackle. If you aren’t punting the ball you shouldn’t have to worry about their returner. If you are putting the ball in the endzone you shouldn’t have to worry about their kick returners.

Still, they put their shiftiest guys out there, as we all do.

Overall

NT is an underdog in this one because we had the nation’s worst defense — and worst run defense — last year. The expectation is that you cannot improve that much in one year, and they don’t believe in the transfers. Combine that with losing the triplets and you have a team with question marks. All of that is fair and reasonable. Oh, and we are on the road.

South has the same losses — new QB, new WR, new RB — a coaching change, and a defense that was helped statistically in the league by playing some absolutely dog-awful squads. I would still have traded their defense for ours without question, however. It all shakes out to a +6.5 point-spread which is how and why Vegas makes money and you do not.

North Texas is improved defensively. I believe it in my bones, but I am ready to be very wrong. It all hinges on that side of the ball. The offense could be anywhere from 110% to 80% of last year and it would not matter in the least with a defense allowing 500 yards and 40 points.⁵

I think we can see a defense that is mid-league⁶ and that will make all the difference.

A NT win looks like: an explosive pass game, an efficient run game and the defense getting those afore-mentioned timely stops and a turnover or three. Think that UAB game with fewer gashing runs and a couple fewer scores

A NT loss looks like: a defense that gets obliterated in the run game and a pass-defense that is gashed thanks to some RPOs and play-action (think second half SMU).

In the e-book I said 42-38 North Texas and I am sticking to it.

GMG

1. Final was 59-10. It was 59-3 in the third quarter. They were scoring while trying to run the clock out.

2. I was struck at how good James Madison was. They beat Troy at Troy, 16-14 but were prevented from winning the championship because of FCS-to-FBS transition rules. The coach left for Indiana and the QB left for Texas State, so who knows what they will be in the future. But they were very good.

3. 18th and 22nd nationally by the way.

4. I know Gabe Blair isn’t in the starting lineup or the two-deep.

5. 476 and 37, to be fair.

6. FAU was 8th and allowed 397 per game and 25 ppg, which was good for 6th. Charlotte was 8th in ppg allowed at 28.6 and 7th in yards per game allowed at 376. Take your pick, I would happily take either defense.