2023: Memphis Preview

No More Moral Victories

UNT vs Memphis
Oct 27, 2023 ・2:00pm ・ESPN+
Denton, TX ・DATCU Stadium (30,850)

Last year in Memphis North Texas dropped a game and Seth Littrell spoke the line that indicated he was on the chopping block: “I think it shows we can compete in the AAC.” It was a moral victory, but still an indicator of the glaring weaknesses of the SL era teams: QB play outside of Mason Fine, winning in big games/the road, and defense.

North Texas made a change and now Eric Morris is coming off a similar circumstance as Littrell’s final season. Then, Seth started slow, and turned it around to get into the CUSA championship game. Now, Morris started slow (Cal, FIU) and has his team playing well enough that a respectable mid-table finish isn’t out of the realm of possibility. The most marked improvement is in the QB play, where Chandler Rogers has been stellar.

Rogers is 2nd in the league in passer rating 151.69 with a 65% completion percentage (NT record Riley Dodge 67.7 in 2009). He’s thrown 215 straight passes without an interception, the longest streak since Fine, and the second longest active streak in the nation (Penn State’s Allar at 283).

He’s at 143/220 with 1 INT, and 1762 yards and 14 TDs (251.7 per game). That’s good QB play, folks. NT’s big weakness is the defense. That side of the ball has intercepted the ball well enough, but the run defense is suspect, and downright bad by the numbers. Everyone can run against NT, which isn’t necessarily bad — more on this later — but it is the kinds of runs they allow: big runs for scores.

Meanwhile Memphis blew out UAB, and is continuing a run of good seasons including 9 straight bowl seasons. Thus far the Tigers have also beaten Bethune Cookman, Arkansas State, Navy, and Boise State. They dropped games to Mizzou and Tulane. Not terrible. They are coached by Ryan Silverfield, who took over from Norvell and has been at the program since 2019.

This game represents a chance for NT to compete with a very good opponent that is roughly equal to the contenders for second in the league in talent and coaching. Tulane is the class of the league, and last week’s close-but-no-cigar gave everyone some confidence. Now it is time to get a win against a team not as good.

Attacking Memphis

Chandler Rogers is playing well, and his ability to stand tall and go through his reads has been evident since FIU week. He can probably hold the ball too long and teams have tried to bring varying levels of pressure to disrupt his game with some success. We have already noted the ability for Rogers to not make mistakes and find his guys, so the obvious defense plan is to speed him up and make him throw while being hit. Tulane had success in the first half with this, bringing pressure and finding success of the right edge.