Really starts about 5-min into the video FYI.

North Texas travelled down to San Marcos and lost big. The defense allowed 337 yards rushing, 268 passing for a total of 605 yards. That’s ridiculous. Texas State was averaging 6.9 yards per run — and this includes the kneel-downs. They were at 8.5 yards per play in the game. That’s just walking up and down the field with very little resistance.

I haven’t looked at the play-by-play but my feeling of it early was short, short, long run. Medium run, short pass, long play.

In the final drives it was Long run, Long run, TD.

Again, my sense of it is likely different from the actual play-by-play. NT was losing contain, and this was because they were getting gashed in the interior. We thought Texas State’s OL was going to be a bit of a problem, but that the depth of our DL would make up for it. As it was, guys were gassed, injured, and ineffective. The short/short/bust kind of cycle in part correlated with the rotations along the line. We’ll have to wait and see the details there.

I have mixed feelings about this game. It was closer than the final score. The defense was closer to getting stops than they looked. North Texas was close to taking the lead in this game, even. If you feel differently, I don’t blame you. The run defense was gashed, the pass defense was as vulnerable as it ever was, and the mistakes are piling up on both sides of the ball. A bad run defense is just about the worst thing you can have in this game — we’ve seen it before.

The offense was effective, however, and we were worried about that coming into the game. Jaheim White was held on the ground, but managed 101 total yards on 22 touches and two scores. Not bad. Haygood ran for 50, and Texas State’s focus on the run game allowed Tayven Jackson to slice up the Bobcat’s defense for 483 yards (career high, and fifth highest in school history) and three passing scores (also a career high).

I am still bullish on this team, as it is still getting to gel, Brown is still figuring out what he has and they adjust. This next week should be a week to work things out and get right, as NT prepares for the conference season.

What Did Your Predictions Say?

Defense

Best Case Scenario: NT holds serve in the run game, and let’s Jackson throw the ball to them, or just the ground.
Worst Case Scenario: Jackson remembers how to complete passes to his guys and NT’s thin secondary are tested.

Verdict: I think Jackson Arnold is a much better QB (running and passing) with a worse offensive line. I think we’ll learn just how important having a good line is.

We saw what a good offensive line can do. They leaned on the NT run game and eventually the Mean Green broke. The Defensive Line coach will have a tough week. The pressure on Jackson was nearly non-existent, as he was able to find open guys with no one in his face. He stepped up from last week, where he was super awful, and that’s a credit to him.

Texas State played with a desperation early and often that North Texas didn’t immediately match. They walked down the field thanks to a 29-yard pass, and a good run game for the first, then they threw open wheels on the next drive.

Offense

Best Case Scenario: North Texas is able to find gaps, and move the ball well by staying ahead of the chains and scoring enough to either stay competitive (Indiana) or blow it open (UNLV).

Worst Case Scenario: The big gambles Texas State takes pay off, and we see some terrible turnovers or big sacks. NT is unable to move the ball and has to play catch up.

Verdict: I think NT’s offense is only going to get better. We haven’t needed Jackson to really show his stuff, and the third week in on the road is a great time to do it. Neal Brown’s team are usually criticized for being too conservative, so I don’t really think we’ll see NT play into Texas States hands and do anything too risky.

For the most part, NT was able to stay ahead of the chains. The sideline-to-sideline run game was bad, and caused most of the penalties (holding, etc) but NT was able to overcome those after a poor first drive. North Texas finished the first half with four straight scoring (touchdown) drives. They converted one early fourth-down to tie the game. On third down they were clutch. Jackson was making the right reads, firing good throws, and guys made big catches — Koch, Tipton, Stevenson.

The back-and-forth stopped when NT started the half with a fumble (Jackson) that didn’t turn to points (forced a punt) but the next two drives ended with failed conversions. Texas State scored on those possessions.

In short, NT couldn’t keep offensive pace. For me, it’s hard to blame the offense and ask them to be absolutely perfect. Reducing this game to its core elements, we look at the defense and ask them to be better. There is, however, coaching all around. The starting QB fumbled and threw a bad INT. The last one was when the game was about 99% over, but you never know. Texas State missed the ensuing Field Goal Attempt but used up 1:07 of crucial time and UNT used up all their timeouts (they also crossed into the two-minute time out scenario).

The details are important and UNT didn’t take care of enough details today.

NT record: 1-2.
Next opponent: Houston Christian (FCS) in Denton.

This is a long email with some screenshots. It is probably best read on the MGN site. FYI.

This is not a rivalry game, but it could be. SMU is the most-played series at 43 games1. Whereas the Safeway Bowl we are the on the short end (we’ll get ‘em next time!) in the Normal Bowl(?) North Texas is 28-3-7. The last loss of course coming in the debut of one Drew Mestemaker in the First Responder Bowl 2.

September 19, 2026 • 11:00am • TV: USA • Radio: MGRN (Sirius XM 263) • San Marcos, Texas • UFCU Stadium (28,000)

I never got the sense that people care about the result of this game. Texas State and UTSA have more energy. No one in real life is talking too excitedly about this game. That’s a shame, because it could be fun.

What’s fun is that most people think of the Texas State Armadillos of Necessary Roughness (1991) fame, the then-fictional school wore green and played at Fouts, the home of the Mean Green. UNT was prominently displayed throughout the film.

I say we have an Armadillo Trophy and pass it around.

College Football is big business. Its tough. It is exhausting. It is also supposed to be fun.

You know what is fun? Winning. Winning is very fun.

Last Week:

North Texas thrashed UNLV in Denton, on the hottest day in the history of ever3 and did so as a home underdog. Texas State briefly held a lead in a similarly hot day in San Marcos against the Roadrunners and then promptly allowed UTSA to come back and win.

Mean Green Nation

Quick Reaction: North Texas 44 UNLV 6

Read more

11 days ago · 5 likes · Adam Martinez

Is This A Big Game?

For North Texas, expectations were pretty low nationally and even regionally. Only Neal Brown has been talking up the team, and even then it is difficult to distinguish between real confidence and coach-speak. Texas State and UNLV were pre-season dark horses for G6 playoff spots and NT was returning no-one. So playing Indiana well through three quarters and blowing the mustache off Hey Reb! is a pretty good start. Going into the September 26th matchup against FCS Houston Christian (neé Houston Baptist) at 2-1 is a pretty enticing reward for a good effort on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Texas State GJ Kinne is staring down the possibility of 0-3. Getting dominated by Arch Manning’s Texas is understandable, but blowing a rivalry game lead and losing is not. Now with a (beatable) NT coming to town this is nearly a must-win. That of course, depends on what you think of Kinne’s time. Texas State’s trajectory has been up in his four seasons. Kinne has put up a 23-18 record, which is good for 2nd all time in wining percentage (David Bailiff — perennially underrated coach) and is fourth all time at TxSt in total wins behind Dennis Franchione’s 39.

It seemed very difficult to win in San Marcos until Kinne came to town. He’s won three straight bowl games for the program. They hadn’t been to one in 40 years before he won two straight First Responders (Rice, NT) and one Armed Forces (Rice).

I doubt he feels much pressure, but this is a big season for the program. They moved to the Pac-12 — something that former NT coach derided (“its not the same league that it was”) and starting out winless is not ideal.

Defending The Bobcats

Coming into this season I talked with some people around the program. They were very excited about Brad Jackson, who put up nearly 4K yards of offense and 38 scores last year. He is a 6-foot, 200lb QB who is a danger on the run. He had 700+ yards and 17 scores on 174 carries last year.

On film the first thing I noticed was how large their offensive line was. Texas State ran for 200+ yards against UTSA. They’ve historically been good running the ball, and just a good offense overall. Kinne runs a similar system to Eric Morris and for a while people were comparing the two.

On the Gridiron show I heard host Billy Sierra mention Kinne thinking that they “run [Jackson] too much” and that could be a reason for his early season struggles. The funny thing is that the start of this UTSA game was all about short, easy passes to get Jackson in rhythm. The first throw went into the ground, however. The second was an arrow pass to the tight end to set up 3rd and 5. His next early throw was a terrible interception where he was staring down his target and the corner undercut it. That’s a bad read, a bad throw, and just poor stuff from the QB.

They were most dangerous running the ball. The pass game is a lot of constraint plays (quick throws to the flat, ‘now’ screens, etc) with some vertical stuff thrown in. Jackson does not have the strongest arm, so when they ask him to make the far-sideline throws he was hitting the ground, missing his target and what-have-you.

Their QB run game is nice, and something similar to what we saw vs UNLV. They do all the same stuff — inside zone, inserts, gap-runs like power and counter. The nicest play I saw was a counter-QB inverted veer. Jackson spins away from the run, and runs against the play.

They’ll just go pin-and-pull and run Jackson to the edge.

I didn’t track it, but it looked like all their most dangrous runs came from direct snap stuff. Both of their backs vs UTSA were very patient. RB4 (Burgess) ran for 8+ yards per tote. He is patient behind that big line, finds gaps, and slices through. Its impressive. RB6 (Jackson) did the same, and ran for 99 yards himself. This offense would have put up 40 if they could throw the ball with any semblance of consistency.

My film notes were literally “QB bad eyes. QB bad throw to edge. QB wild overthrow. QB missed throw. QB dropped snap.” Adding to their mistakes was the center snapping the ball inconsistently especially when he had to pull. 77 (Badusi) and 71 (Boone), and 75 (Jackson) look big on film, and can move relatively well. Their center can get to the next level and moves pretty well. Overall these dudes are tough and it will be a challenge to wear them down. UTSA managed some good stuff against them but was helped by Brad Jackson not being locked in.

For NT, the entire two-deep Defensive Line played well. Notes read like “91! 6! 98 winning! 9 Good eyes! 34 great play! 10! 42! 15! 34 again!” It was just great play by those guys, winning individual battles and disrupting the UNLV offense. The Rebels have a sieve on the offensive line, but do similar things. I don’t expect North Texas to just bully ball their way up front, but I do think having such depth is a good thing. In previous iterations of NT football in recent years fatigue set in too early and NT would get blown off the ball late. I don’t see that happening here.

Best Case Scenario: NT holds serve in the run game, and let’s Jackson throw the ball to them, or just the ground.
Worst Case Scenario: Jackson remembers how to complete passes to his guys and NT’s thin secondary are tested.

Verdict: I think Jackson Arnold is a much better QB (running and passing) with a worse offensive line. I think we’ll learn just how important having a good line is.

Attacking The Bobcats

The usual suspects are leading the charge here. North Texas has been solid-to-good offensively. We wrote this week about the good and bad on this side of the ball. In short, NT is heavily reliant on Jaheim White to make plays and for Tayven Jackson to simply run the offense. Neal Brown has called two solid games with good game plans and the team has largely executed those in both games.

The plan for this one is to stay ahead of the chains, and attack the edges. Texas State’s corners are awful tackling. The game-winning touchdown — UTSA was simply setting up for a straight-on kick to win it — was because the corner was unwilling to get dirty.

Texas State operates out of a 4-2-5/3-3-5 hybrid — the same as most teams. They have some size and athleticism along their front, with Owens standing out as their nose. UTSA was able to get plenty of push against their front, however, and the Bobcats primarily used a lot of pressures to cause havoc. LB 29 Payne is quick, but more of a safety kind of build. They move guys around plenty, and we’ll see their Vypers at the edge, and any combination of guys doing simulated and real pressures.

They got very undisciplined in their run-gaps, however, and UTSA was able to pin guys inside and get free. Once UTSA starting running their counters and screen game, they found lots of space. Compounding the problem for Texas State was that their corners were bad tackling in space, turning 6-yard gains into bigger ones.

Poor tackling and bad eyes cost them the game.

UTSA did a good job in their screen game, and used their aggression against them. One of the scores was a double-pass, after all. The question here becomes “Can Tayven Jackson make reads under pressure?” because he will be pressured. I can’t say Jackson has been pressured too much, and that’s a credit to him and Neal Brown. NT has stayed ahead of the sticks and has been able to engineer ways to get the ball out quickly.

I feel like the NT play-action game will have a moment, and it will be up to Jackson to hit a guy wide-open in this one. Texas State’s defensive philosophy is about creating chaos, and betting that your offense will not be able to take (enough) advantage to move the ball.

I didn’t see their defense be able to create much pressure with four, and when they had to sit back to defend the field they were sliced up a bit. I’m very excited about the prospect of a guy like White, known for making guys miss, against a secondary that simply does not tackle at all. Expect Brown to mix in some more swing passes, or simply put White on the edges again like we saw vs Indiana.

Best Case Scenario: North Texas is able to find gaps, and move the ball well by staying ahead of the chains and scoring enough to either stay competitive (Indiana) or blow it open (UNLV).

Worst Case Scenario: The big gambles Texas State takes pay off, and we see some terrible turnovers or big sacks. NT is unable to move the ball and has to play catch up.

Verdict: I think NT’s offense is only going to get better. We haven’t needed Jackson to really show his stuff, and the third week in on the road is a great time to do it. Neal Brown’s team are usually criticized for being too conservative, so I don’t really think we’ll see NT play into Texas States hands and do anything to risky.

Stray Thoughts and Predictions

Brad Jackson has not been as good for Texas State as he was last year. Their offense puts a lot on him, but if they can lean on the run game more, and find enough in the pass game they can be dangerous. Kinne is a good offensive mind and he’s been finding some clever looks and ideas.

Matt Powledge for NT has been quietly impressive. He came from Baylor with something of a tarnished reputation, but a good pedigree for football-knowers.4 The challenge will be on stopping the run, and then causing and then taking advantage of the mistakes in the TxSt pass game.

This will not be a hostile crowd, and it will be warm. NT has already demonstrated that they can handle the heat (last week) and faced a more impressive crowd in Bloomington. Also? NT has already played at 11am. Nothing about this game will be anything that NT hasn’t seen or experienced and while that might be something to worry about (overconfidence?) Brown has had his guys playing the game in front of them.

Neal Brown’s team this season has been the most prepared, and at-least-as-physical as the opponent in both games. While NT has made mistakes, there is nothing glaring. Even the injuries in the secondary haven’t been too concerning so far. The game is played up front, and so far NT has been very impressive on both sides of the ball. Texas State is big and strong there, but that is just a challenge.

GMG

Prediction: NT 34 TxSt 27

I got the offensive film late Monday, didn’t really start looking until Tuesday, and finished it up this morning. We will hopefully have a Film Room video up this week but there are Real Life concerns making that slightly difficult. We are hosting family in town this week so there are Obligations to consider.

Excuses made, let’s put down some thoughts on the state of the offense so far. Neal Brown has grumbled a bit about the state of the offense a bit, saying he wants more. “It was slow” and “Too many mistakes.”

NT is at 8.2 yards per attempt, at 29 attempts per game, for 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. “Was a defensive pass interference, should have not been ruled an interception” says Brown. Last year — a banner year — NT was at 9.4 yards per attempt, 35 scores, 9 interceptions and 33 attempts per game.

Throughout the UNLV game, this was basically the look:

Tayven Jackson’s offense is heavily RPO/Play-Action based and against Indiana the game play was to dink and dunk. There have been some opportunities, but it looks like Jackson is 1) still figuring out his WR weaponry and 2) playing it safe against a very good team, and then against a team that couldn’t score. In both situations simply protecting the ball is a good decision. He’s thrown a couple of good passes and used his legs to good effect. He’s also missed a couple of throws. This should have been a touchdown. NT ended up with 3 points.

Verdict: Room for improvement. Nothing to get too worked up about. We’ve seen bigger offensive numbers in two games from Chandler Rogers/Stone Earle (6 TDs 5 Ints), Chandler Morris (7TDs, 3 Ints), and Drew Mestemaker (5 Tds, 2 Ints)1 but more turnovers.

For the most part, Jackson takes care of the ball. We like that.

The offense has been moving the ball primarily through the heavy run game — relying primarily on Jaheim White. The squad is at 76 carries for 335 and 4 scores — 4.41 ypc. Last year through the first two games? 315 on 133 carries 5 scores — 4.43.

The difference here being that Indiana and UNLV were the two opponents and not Lamar and Western Michigan2. Everyone starts to get more of a groove in the run game as the season goes on. The early stats across the nation usually reflect teams that are playing overmatched opponents, or have a lot of returning pieces and can pick back up where they left off.

Jaheim White is averaging 7.12 yards per tote — Caleb Hawkins finished at 6.21 for NT last year — and so far White is averaging more yards per game receiving. That will all change, of course, for lots of reasons but we can surmise that we have a game-breaking back like last year. The film shows a guy who does it differently but just as effectively. White does not run through guys like Hawkins does, but he also does not take hits. He slips them, like a boxer. In avoiding clean hits, he reduces injury and wear-and-tear. He runs tough, sure, but he’s running through arm tackles instead of torsos. That makes a difference.

The line is gelling, and is better at gap-scheme stuff than the zone runs. When we talk about teams improving over some time this is where we find some areas to do so. The coaching staff will point out some things they see on film, the guys will improve and we should see that on the field. Failing that, we could simply see different play-calls. “Hey this just isn’t working as well as we’d like. Let’s change it.”

Texas State was poor against the run last year, and so far has allowed 8+ yards per carry against Texas and 4+ vs UTSA. Even if North Texas is in the 4.5 ypc range this weekend, we can say we are on pace and things should be good.

Really, it is the details that are keeping NT from being explosive. The run game is effective even with a pass game that isn’t taking full advantage of the opportunities. That said, the team is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, which is good for third in the conference so far. We mentioned that last year’s team had 9.4 per attempt. Well 2024 saw NT at 7.6 and in 2023 at 7.9.

You want your pass game to be efficient. The run game opens up the pass game, and it should open things up more for guys like Corri Milliner, who runs good routes, and has the experience to set himself up for yards-after-catch. He’s been on the verge of some nice things.

I like to think of teams and talent as Margin for Error. Making a mistake against an Indiana or something means you usually pay for it immediately. On a given play, if one block is missed then we might be blown up. Against UNLV? Well, one guy lost his matchup but White was able to still win the play.

Similarly, White reduces other team’s margin for error. You can see UNLV get hands or arms on him, but if they are not fully squared up in the run lane they miss the tackle. They need to be more perfect.

For North Texas, as the run game gets more focus from the linebackers and defenses, we should see some of the wideouts get open. At least, that’s my thinking.

Chapter Markers:

00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:16 - UNLV Recap
00:25:44 - The Heat
00:30:28 - Look Forward And Scheme Thoughts
00:37:07 - Stray Observations
00:43:22 - Texas State Talk
00:48:00 - Neal Brown Rebuild Impressions
00:58:55 - American Schedule Talk
01:05:31 - Green Lights Gala
01:09:50 - Final Thoughts

44-6 win over UNLV in the 100 degree heat of the Denton Desert

A beaming UNT Athletic Director Jared Mosely stood at the UNT locker room greeting players as they entered. The Mean Green football team had dominated UNLV at DATCU 44-6, out gained the Rebels 444-301 and made a laughing stock of the -6.5 opening spread. On Friday he hosted the Green Lights Gala, raising a reported $300K1. At the event, he talked up the challenges facing a program like North Texas. He referenced the biblical tale of Nehemiah and how he had to tell the Jewish people to rebuild. Mosley had to rebuild the entire football program in short order.

A moral victory against Indiana, and now a statement thumping over a 10-win team and a well-respected coach of a respected program. Jared Mosley had plenty of reasons to smile.

“They were favored” offered Neal Brown in his press conference, “by five”. He was diplomatic, offering his respect to Dan Mullen and the UNLV program. He talked up his team and the battle of the line of scrimmage. “We won on both sides of the ball.”

When MGN reviewed the film, we thought UNLV was vulnerable up front. Memphis dominated after targeting a weakness. That helped them climb back into the game and pull away. Hawaii held UNLV to just 14 before risking it all to get a stop. Were it not for a bad offensive performance, UNLV might be 0-2 coming into Denton. As it was, they were favorites largely because of their skill positions — QB, RB — and head coach pedigree.

North Texas sacked Arnold 4 times, held him to 195 passing, and held him to -11 yards rushing. He didn’t reach the endzone. This after scoring three times in the first two games. He was a weapon neutralized by a ferocious pass rush.

“We knew this was going to happen because of how well we prepared” said Davion Rhodes.

UNLV managed just two field goals, but did get into NT territory right before halftime. “Coach Powledge did a great job. They knew [UNLV] used their timeouts so there were going to be two plays. He called two defensive plays.”

NT got the stop, kept the momentum from a 20-3 lead and didn’t really look back.

“As an offensive coordinator I’m not happy. I thought we can improve.” said Brown. The offense looked a little stuck, kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, but he sees improvement each week. So does QB Tayven Jackson. “I am just trying to get better at everything every week. [Seeing the field], executing. I just want to be a little bit better than last week.”

Right now, getting better is really just giving Jaheim White the ball more often. He had 158 total yards on 14 touches. 124 of those came on the ground, and he had a long broken-tackle filled run to give NT their first score. “He’s awesome. He’s the best back I’ve every played with and will play for a long time” Jackson said.

Indiana’s Curt Cignetti said his QB’s two new best friends are a great run game and a great defense. North Texas won this game on the strength of a great running back — “best at this level”, says Neal Brown — and a great defense who has now a held Indiana, and UNLV to under 400 yards in consecutive weeks. Those two combined for 26 wins last year.

“We want to build on what [former coach] Eric Morris’ staff did last year. — Great win by those guys today by the way.”

Entering this season we didn’t know what Neal Brown and Jared Mosley could do after the most successful NT season in recent memory. How would they rebuild a football team and hope to compete at the same level — for an American title — with almost no momentum in the form of roster consistency to build with? Well so far they have put a physical team with a tough running game, supported by a improving pass game.

Jared Mosley has reason to smile.

It was ridiculously hot. MGN took in the game from the Wing while the 9 other guests huddled in the shadows. We ranged in age from 3 years to 78 years so there were different tolerances. As a group we managed just one series all together. It was brutal.

The home side was shadier, by design of course. However the idea when we built this thing last decade was that the games would be at 6pm, and the road side would feel the sun in their eyes for a quarter or two. The new media deal says North Texas has to play at 2:45pm, in 100-degree heat. MGN measured the field at 154 in pre-game. No matter the die-hard level, those aren’t ideal circumstances to draw a big crowd. The University of Texas, with their giant brand, had people huddling in DKR concourses last week during the midday heat, and NT was no different today. The announced crowd was 20K and by the second half most were in the shade or the home side.

I do not blame anyone for not spending much time at DATCU today. The team was good, and a win was likely always coming, but the heat is a gigantic burden. As I walked from the stadium post-game press conferences, the still-hot weather was much more tolerable. A cool(er) breeze was coming through as the sun began to set in the 7-o’ clock hour.

These are the circumstances we find ourselves in. North Texas, Texas, and any number of programs large and small are subject to the whims of media windows.

For his part, Neal Brown said they prepared for this moment and credited his strength and conditioning staff for helping his team prepare for the heat. “It was just another day for us.”

Week one is in the books. We close-watchers of this program felt good about last week, all things considered. Now, you don’t want to get too comfortable feeling good about 16-52 games. Being within a couple of scores at the defending national champion’s house is not too terrible there. But to steal a couple of lines from Curt Cignetti’s press conference this week, “[Indiana] won the first quarter 14-0, the fourth quarter 21-0. The offense scored on 7 of 8 possessions including 6 touchdowns.”

Saturday September 12, 2026 • 2:45 pm • ESPN

So you know, there is only so much to feel good about.

This week the Mean Green host UNLV, coached by Dan Mullen who went 10-4 in his first year in Vegas. Mullen is of course famous for his coordinating a couple of national championships for Urban Meyer’s Florida teams and coached Tim Tebow to a Heisman Trophy. He coached up Dak Prescott and Miss St, and then went on to run Florida for a bit before getting run out of town. Before all that, he was with Meyer in Utah and coached Alex Smith.

The Rebels are 1-1 on the season, losing to Memphis 21-27 at home, and then beating Hawaii 21-6 on the road (at sea?).

This is the 7th meeting all time between the programs, the only one NT has ever won was the Heart of Dallas Bowl in 2014. The last time these programs met, UNLV ran North Texas out of Allegiant Stadium 58-22 with Littrell as the head coach.

UNLV has been a good program since about 2023, under Barry Odom. He left for Purdue, and then Mullen took over and added a 10 win season. Not terrible. This season they added former HS 5-star QB Jackson Arnold. He fell to only a 3-star transfer after leaving Oklahoma and then Auburn. He’s a Denton native and talked up the homecoming this week. Coaches, family, friends will be in attendance at DATCU this Saturday.

UNLV comes into the game as favorites, and were as much as -6.5 point favorites and are now somewhere at around -3.5 or -3 point favorites as of this writing. What do the oddsmakers know? Well the raw numbers from the Indiana game show a team that will break, after bending. They show a North Texas team with some holes in the secondary and a lot of pieces that are still yet to gel .

UNLV is also on week three, and should be a little better. Dan Mullen is a good offensive coach, and he has a good QB with which to work.

Neal Brown will coach his first home game as head coach, and is looking to become the first North Texas head coach since Darrell Dickey to win his home opener. Dickey beat Nevada in his first game. Brown gets a chance to continue the tradition of getting one over on the Silver State.

Attacking The Rebels

We learned about our team last week. We knew Jaheim White was the go-to running back, but we didn’t know how he’d hold up against a good rush defense. He had 61 yards on 14 carries (4.36) and a score. He broke tackles and he fell forward. He also grabbed 7 passes for 36 yards (including a crucial first down). He’s the star guy.

UNLV is playing the 3-3-5 defense. If you watched a lot of North Texas football the last few years you probably shuddered a bit. When it is good, it can be interesting, but the holes are glaring. Memphis was able to get to the second level often, and had major success with pulling lineman finding linebackers.

The main idea behind their defense is being fast, letting linebackers go make plays, and letting their three best defensive lineman play games with stunts and angles while being as sound as possible — mainly by going head-up on the center and the b-gaps. Again it is nice in moments, but has some glaring weaknesses.

Memphis was able to hit big runs when those stunts were wrong. The nose would move outside and well, that was where the play was going. Memphis’s Veer-and-Shoot ran for 195. They started slow, found a rhythm, and came back from down 14-7.

Hawaii runs an updated Run-N-Shoot and had some moments but suffered from truly awful QB play. There were open guys who either dropped passes or were delivered balls at their feet. UNLV didn’t so much

94 Conti is 290lbs, 90 Logo is 310. 44 Togafau is 270. You’ll also see 42 Porter as a DE situationally but usually they just go with 23 Ka’aihue 240lbs as the edge rusher.

Expect to see stunts, simulated pressure (fake blitzes) and all-out stuff from UNLV to try to disrupt the timing. Memphis’ Marcus Stokes did a great job navigating the rush and used his legs to escape. Micah Alejado of Hawaii was very bad, comparatively speaking.1

The main takeaway is that there will be plenty of running space. North Texas struggled withe Indiana’s interior lineman on zone runs, but if they can get a little push on the Rebels’ guys (like Memphis and Hawaii did) there should be some good eating through the middle.

Tayven Jackson completed a high percentage of passes, and his pocket was relatively clean. Neal Brown schemed up a lot of quick, easy throws for him and only later added the play-action big play stuff. He was protecting the team by being risk averse. NT dominated possession and wanted to keep the chains moving. I expect that the Mean Green will not have to grind out so many possessions in this one, and we should see more 10+ yard runs available. Jaheim White was able to hit some big gains, and UNLV has not shown a super stout run game defense so far.

Jackson should be able to get loose for something as well. UNLV’s secondary is basically untested, but Memphis hit them for a deep toss over 1 Bin-Wahad the Nick. He was set up by the endless 5-yard stop routes the Veer-N-Shoot has. He hesitated and it was a blow-by.

We saw some good play-action stuff from North Texas last week, and I expect we should see some more this time. UNLV is heavily relying on their linebacker play — 8 Ka’aihue and 23 Cam Santee are good, experienced backers.

Again, UNLV is looking for splash defensive plays to kill drives. Avoid that and you have a shot.

Defending Against The Rebs

I’ve played enough dynasty games to have had a QB with talent, but absolutely no blocking in front of him. You basically cannot throw any deep routes or play-action because it is like asking to be sacked. I recognized this situation by watching all the offensive plays from UNLV vs Memphis and Hawaii.

The short version is that Jackson Arnold is talented. You can see why he was a 5-star guy. He has good play-recognition, a live arm, and is a tough runner. Neal Brown said he’s great at the RPO game and Mullen is calling plays around his talent. That’s being nice. There is absolutely no offense here that is not Arnold-dependent. He would be the leading rusher barring sacks. He has three of the team’s 4 rushing touchdowns so far.

The Rebel offense looks a bit like those old Tebow Florida offenses, with counters and power, and motions. If the line were say 30% better, this would be an absolute monster of a squad. Arnold can deal the ball, and he can run it, but he has no time, and they can’t get much push in the run game.

We’ll see lots of pin-n-pull, power, counter, some straight zone runs and all the usual stuff. They will run Arnold a ton, setting up the looks early but also just straight QB power plays. He’s scored three and I really think their most effective offense is simply going five-wide and letting him make plays with his legs.

UNLV is only putting up a meager 5.89 yards per play, however, and only scored 21 in both games. What gives? Well, Memphis figured out pretty quickly that they could bully freshman right guard 74 Taase always and forever. They beat him on bullrushes, stunts, wide angles, everything. He’s good in the run game, but not great. 78 Brown and 72 Thomas have gotten beat often on pass rushes also. Hawaii was attacking all night as well.

Against Memphis, UNLV tried putting in senior 64 Metzger to little success.

I mean, you can see in the image above that Memphis was just bringing four and they had the OL looking silly.

The summary of their offense is that the running back-led run game is solid-to-okay, and mixed in with Arnold’s legs can be dangerous. Their pass game is very shaky, because you can get to Arnold often. He keeps his eyes down field, makes good decisions and can run so he can make you pay and get out of jams.

The problem is that kind of game is hard to sustain, and sometimes he gets tired, gets hit as he throws — which accumulates through the game — and guys just make mistakes.

His talent for extending plays is best used as an intensifier —something to make a good offense great. Right now he’s making a meh offense just mediocre. If Hawaii had a C+ level QB performance UNLV would be staring at 0-2. The base offense only managed 14 points (again, two Arnold red zone runs) before breaking out a long run in the 4th quarter only leading 14-6. Hawaii was selling out to get the ball back, missed a gap, and got beat.

Special Teams and Coaching

Dan Mullen is a better, more accomplished coach than Neal Brown. Look at the rings, boys. Mullen has won at MSST while Brown had trouble at WVU. That said, right now Brown has a good offensive line while Mullen has swiss cheese. That should be the game.

That said, Brown probably has the worst special teams (kick offs, punts) we’ve seen in a long while. Indiana started at the NT 20 to begin the season. UNLV’s offensive line will happily take a handicap if we are offering that. Brown said all this week he has been working to improve that aspect of the team. Time will tell.

Stray Thoughts and a Prediction

MGN went through a lot of film this week, all of Indiana and two UNLV games. UNT looks more like Memphis (in size, physicality, talent) than Hawaii and Memphis had their way with UNLV on both sides of the ball. Hawaii doesn’t look very big either, but they bullied the defensive line, and found big rush lanes.

Barring some (more) injuries to the secondary I feel good about UNT’s defense vs Jackson Arnold over the life of the game. UNLV can and will score, but I think their offense is not consistent enough to pose a thread over many drives.

The heat will absolutely be a factor. UNLV is in Vegas, sure, but played their home game in a dome, and then went to Hawaii. NT played a hot game in Bloomington last week.

Prediction → NT runs for 250 yards, wins 37-17. GMG

Standout player(s): Aaron Alexander, Bryce Garza, Justin Benton

Things to work on: Setting the edge — corners, safeties. Tackling on the edges, discipline in pass defense. Getting to the QB on pressures.

Standout player(s): Jaheim White, Tayven Jackson.

Things to work on: Blocking on the edges. Zone blocking against possible NFLers. Pulling the trigger on some passes that are there.

Last season was the most successful season by almost every measure in North Texas footballing history. It is strange then that I spend the summer forgetting. I wanted to become a normie1, with normie footballing opinions. I didn’t watch any(more) Neal Brown WVU film, I didn’t follow the transfer portal.2 I was at a healthy remove from college football. I even made sure to avoid Stillwater, OK on the drive back to Texas.

This August, as I was talking with friends and coworkers about the college football season, we talked tailgating plans and the like. After someone brought up the Portal, I had to lock in. The little Mean Green we supported last year was nearly entirely in Orange. I fired off hot sports opinions on smaller schools still having stake in this business — else what is the point? I talked about how North Texas is coming off an 12-2 season with a Bowl Championship3 and yet it feels like none of that happened.

Its weird.

But, we will deal with it. The whole depth chart is transferred or gone. So now we adjust. We have new guys. They will carry the UNT name forward. In many ways we are simply at the extreme end of where college football always was heading, and in many ways was already. The 4-year limit was a blessing and a curse. You have your good player for a time and presumably a window. But if you had a bad recruiting class? Well you had it pass it like a kidney stone. Time was often the enemy. The portal is a monkey’s paw4 and North Texas was both blessed (a portal heavy roster won 12 games for UNT) and cursed (50 or so guys left)

Before we enjoy today’s game we have to acknowledge that college athletics is in crisis. I mean, everyone else thinks so. We can admit it. I don’t think nor want the days of freshman ineligibility or when you couldn’t buy a kid a cheeseburger to return. I do think we need some kind of system that encourages less roster churn and at least some renumeration for the programs and people investing in these teams.

For today? We have Neal Brown and he has a plan. He told the Athletic that he wants to be the premier DFW program, built on high school talent, touched with P6 returnees, and a place where guys can develop and leave for other, richer programs only after contributing to UNT success. It is a bold and reasonable plan. He begins with just about the toughest test one can conjure up, against the absolute master in plan execution in Indiana’s Curt Cignetti.

Indiana

Well, they won a national title last year as everyone’s favorite plucky ne’er-do-well. They beat teams up, had a wonderful aww-shucks kind of QB in Mendoza, and a quirky coach who seemingly never smiled. It was straight out of a movie script.

Cignetti built Indiana through the portal with the help of a large checkbook. His modus operandi is extreme attention to detail, blunt coaching feedback, and well, winning. It is what [he does]. Google [him].

Neal Brown is also a winner, but he struggled in West Virginia. He had a transitionary period, pre-portal explosion, and won games and had offenses but didn’t perform at the level that WVU wanted even if they were in a tougher league than before.

The AAC is not the Big TEN and there are obvious financial disparities. The net result is that Indiana’s roster is expensive — rumored to be somewhere between $15MM and $27MM. Cignetti has said it’s more the former than the latter.

North Texas’ budget was reportedly $5MM.

That will be evident in the top-level talent — our ones vs their ones — and the depth. Their twos and threes could probably be our ones.

It used to be that the Indianas of the world were within upset range. We beat them once upon a time in Denton, in the way that we beat Washington State. But Indiana went and leveled up and is now in a different tier. They can bully ball Ohio State and didn’t get bullied by Miami in the national title game. What can North Texas do?

North Texas

Last year the clear and obvious strength for NT was the QB and offense. We had known quantities. Our head coach could pick QBs and our RB coach (and NT legend) could find running backs. And lo and behold it came to pass that Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins were legendary. The big fix came on defense, where we finally decided we should stop people. NT had a light schedule and won 12 games.

Now? The schedule is tougher, the quantities are unknown. Neal Brown has won before — usually with good quarterback play, tough run games, and a mean defense led by a good defensive line. Has he picked those kinds of guys? I hope so.

Tayven Jackson is our QB. He beat out Ditta and local favorite Jimmerson.

Jahiem White is the big name running back. He is supported by Jayden Becks, and some other guys. The wide receiver room is deep but also no one stands out as a number one — this isn’t a bad thing as the same situation last year produced Wyatt Young, et al.

The offensive line is experienced, and big with some P-6 time under their belts. The defense is also experienced with the defensive line getting bigger, the linebacking corps getting older, and the secondary getting faster. North Texas brought in staff partly responsible for recruiting the (quality) secondary at Notre Dame and it has paid off.

The idea, then, is to run the ball and play good defense. If that sounds familiar it is because that is simply good footballing ethos. It has been the strategy of best football teams ever. Now, to be fair, it has also been the worst teams’ strategies. All plans are great until you get to execution time. There is a Mike Tyson line about this.

Can North Texas move the ball today and the rest of the season? Will Tayven Jackson use his athleticism and experience to make great decisions with the ball? Will the defense get pressure from the defensive line? Will the secondary be the playmakers we expect?

I ask the last question because a few of these recruits were known for being ball hawks, including Brandon “Mr. Pick Six” Jones from McNeese State.

Predictions

North Texas is a 40-point dog in this game for good reason — it is a team of unknowns vs the defending national champion. It is a team triple the valuation with the best coach in America vs a coach trying to figure out exactly what he has. I am dreaming and hoping for a huge upset, but I am also a realist.

The goal for this game is finding out what we can do in difficult circumstances. Who can execute when things are tough. Who can make good decisions. Who can be a playmaker. Who can be relied upon.

But for one quarter there is an opportunity to go leave a mark and let North Texas fans know we have a team to be proud of. No one really expects a win. We don’t have to win every week to feel proud of this team. We want a team that does not quit, that fights, that works and makes whoever we play very uncomfortable.

Eric Morris laid and egg vs Cal in his opening game and it took about five games into his most successful seasons before he got any real momentum back. Neal Brown is in a much tougher position but if he can impress today it will go a long way toward building the good will he will need for his job.

MGN Prediction: Indiana 50 UNT 14.

GMG

Apologies for the quiet summer. Again, MGN moved from Missouri to Central Texas and spent the first three months of that time getting settled. That involved a lot of meeting other neighbors and family and buying sofas and all kinds of things that cost me money. Also the World Cup was held here and we just had to go. That was fun.

MGN should be back to something like regular posting but we are still figuring out the schedule. It seems the children of MGN have some kind of activity every darn night of the week and MGN is shuttling here or there all the time. So it goes.

It has been a few months since we reckoned with the greatest football season in North Texas history and the knowledge that the main contributors will now attempt to do the same kind of footballing in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Forgetting is human, and it is good for us. I want to remember the good times, and forget the bad, even …

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Apologies for the lack of posting here by your humble proprietor. As I mentioned elsewhere, MGN is in the process of relocating back to Texas and that involves a lot of preparation — for selling, for moving, for acquiring property and so on and so forth. All the spare time is accounted for, and then some.

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First, a note about MGN’s posting schedule. My full intention was to get to these a little more quickly, but life has its way of disrupting plans, well laid or no. My real-life job has become quite demanding and I have given it due attention. I also still try to play rec-league stuff and well yesterday after a Thursday-Friday back-to-back of 10:30-9pm g…

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