In the end, the Mean Green did what we predicted. The over/under was 63.5 and NT was favored by 17-points. MGN predicted a final of 55-17. We thought the explosive offense we have seen for weeks was going to be too much for a Rice team that has shown some food things, but ultimately hasn’t shown they can stop anyone with reuglarity. We thought Rice would move the ball, but wouldn’t be able to consistently deliver execution.

All that came to pass, but in an order of events that put everyone rooting for the Green-and-White at a level of unease. Tayven Jackson, praised this week in multiple outlets and so consistently accurate and poised was firing the ball all over and missing reads. Jahiem White, always the focus of the defense, didn’t get much daylight to operate.

It was 10-7 at the half and it looked like maybe Rice had the opening they needed. Instead North Texas scored 42 points in the second half, ripped off 495 yards of offense including 192 on the ground — 139 from Jahiem White.

The triplets hit the 300/100/100 and combined for 6 scores.

If you are a box score watcher, this didn’t look much different than previous weeks.

Okay, let’s get into it

1. Tayven Jackson Had A Bad Game (and still delivered)

Statistically speaking, he was plus-300 and threw a score, while running for two others. In reality he didn’t hit the long balls he usually does, and misfired throughout the game. Even the 48-yarder to Stevenson to open the gam was a little long. He played through a bad game but his C+ performance was still good for a winning effort.

Credit to the staff and to Jackson for sticking with it. He was praised all week (deservedly) but he just couldn’t find the rhythm. The book on him is that he gets happy feet and starts throwing it wayward when pressured. North Texas had come into this game with a reputation of protecting the QB. Jackson was sacked twice. He was pressured other times.

Credit Rice for doing a good job defending in coverage, but Jackson was misfiring throughout the game and it didn’t look like anything the Owls were causing. Credit to him for closing the game out strong.

2. Jahiem White Delivered

Jahiem White has now scored in 11-straight games, including all nine of the games for North Texas this season. He ran for three tonight, including a highlight-reel 60-yarder to blow it open. For the first half he looked like the only thing working, even if there wasn’t much room for him to do anything. The game started with a quick screen to him, and NT found some short runs.

Usually, the play-action game opens things up for the run game. Teams basically dare Jackson to throw it over the top, with how focused they are on White’s running ability. After NT was able to finally hit on some pass plays (S/O Max Reese) Jahiem found pay dirt by taking a gap-run out wide, and sprinting up the sideline.

21 carries 139 yards 3 TDs.

4 catches 31 yards.

White is the best player on the squad and opens up everything else for the rest of the team. Quarterback is the most important position just because of the nature of the role, but the offense flows because White can do what he did tonight. Short yardage, home runs — whatever you think of he can do it.

3. The Defense Got Big Stops Late

Rice can be dangerous and also does some self-harm (drops, penalties, etc). Each week their highlights are two long touchdowns — and those are the only points they score. Tonight, they had some long runs, and some effective passes. The only managed 17 during the competitive part of the game (one score came with under a minute and backups in the game).

For a moment, North Texas looked like they were likely to go down to a hugnry Rice team. Instead, Powledge’s team got a 3-and-out, then followed that up by a forced fumble. The offense capitalized on both.

The game was one of two halves, and the defense getting big stops was the catalyst.

Final Thoughts And A Look Ahead

Homecoming weekend vs Rice brought 23K to see a good Mean Green squad. North Texas was always likely to be rusty after a tough week that saw them score 97-points in six days. Everyone rested but there was rust. There were also injuries. Kyle Koch was a late scratch, Corri Milliner is still out, and Josiah Martin has also been hurt. Baron Tipton, and Dalton Carnes had to step up and that left Stevenson as the only one who can take the top off the defense. Max Reese had a huge game, converting a couple of third-and-longs.

Whatever coaching or preparation was done did not overcome tired bodies and some rust. North Texas managed to do what they wanted, and what we all expected. Football seasons are like this. Not every game can be a three-phase domination. Good teams dig deep and find a way to win no matter what. Potential championship teams find a way to make the scoreboard nice even while not playing well.

UTSA was thumped by FAU this past Thurday night — coming off a bye. Their coach has won a couple of league titles and was in the running for a new gig. So yeah, it can happen to even the most accomplished guys. There was a risk that North Texas would be walking into San Antonio feeling good while UTSA would be licking their wounds trying to shake off the embarrassment of allowing 60 points and 300+ yards rushing.

A little appropriate fear of the possibility is useful and good. Tayven Jackson spent the week giving some interviews and listening to praise. It is good to get a little brushback. He bounced back in this one. I know he doesn’t want to have the same kind of early performance next week.

This coming game is the biggest regular season game since that Navy game last year. North Texas gets a chance to establish themselves as the front-runner for an American title game berth, and also the favorite to host it. The opponents after this one are Tulane (lost by 50 today) and UAB (beat Charlotte by 11) — two eminently beatable squads (7th and 8th in the league respectively).

UTSA is the only other top-six team NT will face in this league. FAU was the other.

Some common opponents: Navy (both won) FAU (NT won, UTSA lost by 31), Tx State (NT lost, UTSA won), Rice (UTSA won by 2, NT by 29). Both will play Tulane, and UAB.

For me, North Texas has been clearly the better team. But UTSA plays much better at home. I’m so hyped I’ve forwent the press box for the stands and will be at the Alamodome for the festivities. Cant’ wait. These are the kinds of games we want, folks. GMG

This is Homecoming Week and Rice is in town for a matchup. For a long time Rice played in the Southwest Conference, and has history with Texas, A&M, Texas Tech and the rest. In my early sports consciousness they never really occupied the same level as North Texas.

I remember the 2008 game — I had to work the Saturday of the game so I was checking my phone for updates. We allowed 40+ at halftime and I could not believe this was possible. A low for the program. A couple of seasons later in Todd Dodge’s final season, Nathan Tune led the offense to a 31-26 lead before Rice drove to take a one-point lead early in the fourth. MGN was present to see the ill-fated last two drives and Nathan Tune injury that took his season, and Todd Dodge’s last hope1

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Beating Rice in 2013 was cathartic in so many ways. They had been such a good program (relatively) in recent years and getting the double-goal line stand on Halloween that night was huge. It is THE game for so many of that time.

North Texas lost twice as McCarney lost his touch, but in 2016 had an epic comeback to force OT and won in the extra period for Seth Littrell and Mason Fine’s first win. (see first picture).

Since then, North Texas has mostly handed the series fairly easily. There was a bad loss in 2019 (NT finished 4-8 that year) but there have been blowouts in our favor since.

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MGN does not intend to blast your inbox with notifications, but it was a big day.

Mens’ and women’s basketball began on Monday night, and we sent to write about it.

UNT established control early, taking a 43-20 lead into halftime behind a strong first-half performance from sophomore guard Cherie Spencer, who led the team with 15 points before the break.

The Mean Green found another gear coming out of the locker room, exploding for 33 points in the third quarter while holding Newman to 14. Spencer finished with a team-high 22 points, while sophomore guard Kamyra Barber added 19 and junior guard Kalysta Martin contributed 15.

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Now that it is basketball season, I want to remind you of the Basket Under Review partnership. If you subscribe to BUR with this link, you get a little discount:

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MGN was asked to join Offseason After Dark for a chat about the American and North Texas. A good time was had.

National Notes

• Baylor suing player for NIL Breach

• Big12 Commissioner leaving

American Conference Notes

Superlatives

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Marcus Stokes • Jr. • QB • Memphis

Marcus Stokes was fantastic in Memphis’ 49-22 win over Army Saturday, accounting for a total of five touchdowns. Stokes completed 29 of 35 passes for 371 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing seven times for 30 yards and adding another score on the ground.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

CJ Hicks • Gr. • DE • South Florida

CJ Hicks tied a school record and became the first American Conference player since 2024 to register at least four sacks in a single game in South Florida’s 30-10 win over UAB. Hicks had five total tackles, 4.0 sacks and a pass deflection in the win over UAB.

SPECIAL TEAMS PLAYER OF THE WEEK

TJ Smith • Sr. • KR • Tulane

TJ Smith returned a pair of kickoffs for an average of 63 yards including a 95-yard return for a touchdown to help lead Tulane to a comeback 38-31 overtime win over Charlotte. It was the longest kickoff return by a Tulane player since 2024.

HONORABLE MENTION

Dickson Agu, Jr., LB, Tulane
Agu tallied 14 tackles including seven solo stops and 0.5 TFL in Tulane’s 38-31 overtime win over Charlotte.

TJ Engleman, Jr., RB, East Carolina
Engleman Jr. rushed 16 times for 107 yards and a touchdown in East Carolina’s 19-7 win over Temple.

Tayven Jackson, 5th, QB, UNT

Jackson finished 33 of 46 for 404 yards and four touchdowns while rushing five times for 41 yards in the 48-41 win over Florida Atlantic.

Easton Messer, 5th, WR, Florida Atlantic

Messer caught 16 passes for 189 yards and three touchdowns against North Texas.

Henry Rutledge, 5th, RB, Charlotte

Rutledge rushed 22 times for 121 yards and also had four catches for 79 yards to tally 200 yards of total offense in the loss against Tulane.

North Texas will play UTSA at 8pm on ESPNU November 14

Thursday, 11/12

• Memphis at South Florida, 8:00pm ET on ESPN

Saturday, 11/14

• East Carolina at Charlotte, 1pm ET on ESPN+

• UAB at Temple, 1pm ET/12pm CT on ESPN+

• Tulane at Rice, 2pm ET/1pm CT on ESPN+

• Florida Atlantic at Tulsa, 3:30pm ET/2:30pm CT on ESPN+

• North Texas at UTSA, 9pm ET/8pm CT on ESPNU

Notables from the League

• UNT earned bowl eligibility for the ninth time since 2013 with the win over FAU. The Mean Green are now 4-0 in league play for the first time since 2004 when they were members of the Sun Belt Conference.

• QB Tayven Jackson completed 33 of 46 passes for 404 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing five times for 41 yards in the win over the Owls.

• The Mean Green had three players, Justin Stevenson, Max Reese and Kyle Koch, with 7+ receptions led by Stevenson who finished with nine catches for 119 yards and a touchdown.

• UNT RB Jaheim White became the first player in the American to top 1,000 rushing yards with 26 carries for 193 yards and two touchdowns.

• Florida Atlantic QB Caden Veltkamp finished 37-of-56 for 452 yards and five touchdowns through the air in the road loss at UNT.

• Reigning American Offensive Player of the Week WR Easton Messer continued his impressive play with 16 catches for 189 yards and three touchdowns in the receiving game.

• Tulane rallied from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to force overtime and ultimately take down Charlotte on the road 38-31.

• The Green Wave spread the wealth offensively with 11 different players having at least one catch, the second-most in any American Conference game this season.

• Tulane QB Trace Johnson completed 28 of 36 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown in the win over Charlotte.

• Tulane WR TJ Smith returned a kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown to put the Green Wave ahead 14-10 in the second quarter.

• Charlotte RB Henry Rutledge rushed 22 yards for 121 yards and led the 49ers in receiving with four catches for 79 yards to top 200 all-purpose yards in the overtime loss against Tulane.

• Navy held a 13-7 lead late in the second quarter before ultimately falling 35-13 against No. 5 Notre Dame at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.

• Navy QB Jackson Gutierrez rushed 28 times for 110 yards and a touchdown while completing 4-of-7 passes for 25 yards in the loss vs. Notre Dame.

• After allowing the first 10 points of the game, South Florida scored 30 straight points over the final three quarters of play to take down UAB 30-10 in Tampa.

• USF QB Luke Kromenhoek rushed 15 times for 92 yards and was 7-of-10 in the passing game for 39 yards in the win over UAB.

• USF DE C.J. Hicks tied a school record and became the first American Conference player since 2024 to register at least four sacks in a single game. Hicks had five total tackles, 4.0 sacks and a pass deflection in the win over UAB.

• UAB defenders Jeremiah Jordan and Jo’Tavion Pierce both had 11 tackles and combined for 10 solo stops in the road loss at USF.

• East Carolina picked off three passes and held Temple to less than 250 yards of total offense in the 17-9 victory.

• ECU RB T.J. Engleman Jr. Rushed 16 times for 107 yards and a touchdown in the win over Temple.

• Temple LB Curly Ordonez was all over the field in the road loss at East Carolina with 14 tackles including six total stops.

• Memphis racked up 554 yards of total offense and scored 14 points in three of four quarters in a 49-22 win over Army.

• The Tigers (4-1 American) now join UNT and UTSA (both 4-0) as one of just three teams with one-loss or better in the league.

• Memphis QB Marcus Stokes completed 29-of-35 passes for 371 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing seven times for 30 yards and another score in the win over Army.

• Tigers RB Jaylin Carter and WR Jermane Hayes each accounted for two touchdowns against Army.

• Army RB Godspower Nwawuihe tallied 100 rushing yards on 19 carries in Army’s loss at Memphis.

Notables:

Tayven Jackson, QB, UNT
Finished 33 of 46 for 404 yards and four touchdowns while rushing five times for 41 yards in the 48-41 win over FAU.

Jahiem White, RB UNT
Rushed 26 times for 193 yards and two TDs while catching two passes for 27 yards to go over 200 all-purpose yards in the win over FAU.

Justin Stevenson, WR, UNT
Caught nine passes for 119 yards and a touchdown in the 48-41 win over FAU.

Caden Veltkamp, QB, Florida Atlantic
Completed 37-of-56 passes for 452 yards and five touchdowns through the air in the road loss at UNT.

Easton Messer, WR, Florida Atlantic
Caught 16 passes for 189 yards and three touchdowns against North Texas.

Trace Johnson, QB, Tulane

Completed 28 of 36 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown and rushed seven times for 31 yards in the OT win over Charlotte.

Johnnie Daniels, RB, Tulane
Rushed 13 times for 99 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 7.6 yards per carry against Charlotte.

Dickson Agu, LB, Tulane
Tallied 14 tackles including seven solo stops and 0.5 TFL in the win over Charlotte.

Henry Rutledge, RB, Charlotte
Rushed 22 times for 121 yards and also had four catches for 79 yards to tally 200 yards of total offense in the loss against Tulane.

Gavin Willis, LB, Charlotte
Finished with 12 tackles, seven of which were solo tackles, in the OT loss vs. Tulane.

Jackson Gutierrez, QB, Navy
Rushed 28 times for 110 yards and a touchdown while completing 4-of-7 passes for 25 yards in the loss vs. Notre Dame.

D.J. Hicks, DE, South Florida
Tied a school record and became the first American Conference player since 2024 to register at least four sacks in a single game. Hicks had five total tackles, 4.0 sacks and a pass deflection in the win over UAB.

T.J. Engleman Jr., RB, East Carolina

Rushed 16 times for 107 yards and a touchdown in the win over Temple.

Curly Ordonez, LB, Temple

Ordonez was all over the field in the road loss at East Carolina with 14 tackles including six total stops.

Marcus Stokes, QB, Memphis

Stokes completed 29-of-35 passes for 371 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing seven times for 30 yards and another score in the win over Army.

Jermane Hayes, RB, Memphis

Stokes completed 29-of-35 passes for 371 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing seven times for 30 yards and another score in the win over Army.

Godspower Nwawuihe, RB, Army

Tallied 100 rushing yards on 19 carries in Army’s loss at Memphis.

Editor’s Note: This season Alex Salazar is writing about the basketball team. Support this effort buy subscribing.

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The North Texas basketball programs couldn’t have asked for a much better start to the 2026-27 season.

Both the men’s and women’s teams opened their regular-season campaigns with convincing victories at the Super Pit, as the women’s team cruised past the Newman Jets 101-48, and the men delivered a dominant performance against Southwestern Christian Eagles 122-50.

UNT established control early, taking a 43-20 lead into halftime behind a strong first-half performance from sophomore guard Cherie Spencer, who led the team with 15 points before the break.

The Mean Green found another gear coming out of the locker room, exploding for 33 points in the third quarter while holding Newman to 14. Spencer finished with a team-high 22 points, while sophomore guard Kamyra Barber added 19 and junior guard Kalysta Martin contributed 15.

Defensively, North Texas was equally as impressive, outrebounding Newman 57-28 and forcing 29 turnovers, while also recording 12 steals.

Despite the lopsided victory, head coach Jason Burton acknowledged that his team needed time to settle into the season opener.

“I thought the first half we were a little rusty,” Burton said. “I think you get some first-game jitters.”

Burton pointed to improved ball movement and pace after halftime as a major reason for the offensive surge in the third quarter.

“In the first half, we tried to force a lot of things,” Burton said. “When we made the easy plays and shared the ball, we got open looks, we exploded for 33 points right there,” Burton said.

With a convincing season-opening victory behind them, the Mean Green will look to carry that momentum into their upcoming matchup against San Diego State.

The women’s victory was only half of the story, as the men’s team looked to make it a clean sweep for North Texas basketball.

The North Texas men’s basketball team had something to prove after a disappointing exhibition performance, and it did so emphatically.

The Mean Green opened their regular season with a 122-50 victory over Southwestern Christian, using a balanced offensive attack and a dominant performance on the boards to take care of business at the Super Pit.

North Texas had six players finish in double figures, led by freshman Aeneas Alexander, who recorded a game-high 22 points and nine rebounds. Cash Chavis added 17 points, while Amar Amkou finished with 16 points and nine rebounds. Je’Shawn Stevenson contributed 15 points and five assists.

The Mean Green established control early, taking a 57-17 advantage into halftime. North Texas continued to build on that lead in the second half, outscoring Southwestern Christian 65-33.

Head coach Daniyal Robinson said the team’s focus entering the opener was less about the opponent and more about establishing the standard it expects to play with.

“Regardless of the score, not playing the score,” Robinson said. “Just really focusing on how hard we play, playing connected.”

That mentality came after an exhibition loss that left the team searching for consistency. Stevenson said the coaching staff held the players accountable throughout the week, emphasizing the importance of learning from the performance.

“We knew that we wanted to get the nasty taste out of our mouth from the exhibition game,” Stevenson said. “The message was just be us and go out there and play hard.”

Despite the lopsided victory, Robinson emphasized the importance of maintaining the same level of effort and execution moving forward.

North Texas will get an early test when it travels to face McNeese, which defeated UAB in its season opener.

“They’re a team that’s built for March,” Robinson said. “We’re just looking to develop a level of consistency that showed up tonight. We need to do the same thing Thursday night.”

This last decade, we’ve seen plenty of high scoring offensive performance with little defensive support. To the untrained eye, last night’s game looked very much like the same kind of thing. Listen, no one was happy with the defense getting sliced up for 500+ again (including 452 through the air) but there were things to like: they hit hard, they got to Veltkamp, they forced a turnover. I expected better, but full credit to Florida Atlantic, who were very good.

From the preview:

I see North Texas blowing this open with more big plays. The hype of the moment can easily get this team too energetic but I think Neal Brown will do a better job of getting his guys ready than Eric Morris did vs USF last year. So expect North Texas to hit some big home runs, and run away with this.

MGN prediction: North Texas 55 - FAU 17

Did the moment get to them? A little. I expected better from Neal Brown, who got a little too cute to start the game and tried some QB keepers at the goal line to start the game. North Texas took yardages in chunks but stalled out at the three. The defense had forced a quick punt and NT could have taken a 7-0 lead. Instead they got just the three points (S/O DeFreitas, who was 2/2 and kicked an important go-ahead FG after half). The defense got a turnover and forced third and longs, and even some third-down stops. They just got smoked on 3rd and long too many times, including a 3rd-and-14 that went for a 27-yard touchdown, and 3rd-and-10, which was converted through a roughing call.

Let’s get into the reactions:

Neal Brown Press Conference:

1. Good Crowd — Student Record Set — No Stadium Record

Neal Brown praised the students in particular. “The atmosphere is set by your students.” The crowd was huge on the student side, okay in the alumni side, and a little sparse in the wings.

SportsCenter was on campus, it was fun, people had a good time. Driving in DFW at 5pm on a weekday is rough no matter how early you dip out of work or class, so it was difficult. Seeing sparsely populated stadia across the nation has given me some idea of what is happening. North Texas is one entertainment option among seemingly infinite others, one with lots of friction (outdoors, with parking/walking, spending money). To get people in seats for the duration, the juice has to be worth the squeeze. Right now, that squeeze is on the wallet in more ways than one.

So it goes.

2. The Defense Was Hanging On For Dear Life

Easton Messer running wide open for a corner route as the safety fell down was emblematic of the entire night.

From the preview:

Defensive coordinator Matt Powledge will have to decide if Messer is good enough to deserve special handling, or if base defense and base principles are enough. Reacting to the various movements can backfire if you can’t get set, or have to over-communicate. That slight hesitation and delay can expose the defense to precisely the thing they are trying to prevent. My vote is to go base principles and make him make you adjust. He had a couple of easy drops vs Rice that should keep him humble.

Messer came in locked in, didn’t drop a single thing and furthermore caught a tough ball in the end zone while double-covered by a safety and linebacker. Perhaps you will rage against the idea that 4 Coombes was the defensive back covering him, but credit to Messer for running crisp routes, extending plays, and being tough to tackle.

That said, the pass rush was too slow getting to Veltkamp. North Texas started with two-high safeties, kept the routes in front of them, but FAU extended the play and either scrambled for yards or to find a wide out. One of these was a touchdown to Messer, but also one to Shields-Dutton.

Neal Brown said “defense played 85 plays tonight, and 77 on Saturday. We need some R&R”.

He credited FAU for their performance, and Veltkamp for getting the ball out. “We doubled Messer. 16 targets 16 catches.”

It was “survive and advance” for Brown, and that’s a good summation of the game. North Texas had to play well enough on defense and they did.

3. The Offense Was Good, But Also Mistake-Prone

Neal Brown called it a “just-under good” performance. The first drive should have been a score. Brown put that on Jackson and his stars, who are “talented, and held to a higher standard.” He called the fumble by Jahiem White’s end-of-half fumble a bad play.

“I’ve seen enough of that shit.”

Jackson 33/46 for 404 yards 4 touchdowns, no interceptions. Jahiem White 25 carries 174 yards 2 touchdowns. Justin Stevenson 9 carries 119 yards 1 touchdown. The “triplets” filled up the stat sheet but left some things on the field. White had two fumbles — one was called back thanks to a defensive hands-to-the-face flag. The head coach called him out and White was upset with himself on the sideline.

Brown called out Stevenson’s route running as not great, he said Jackson missed some reads where he could have run, and obviously White’s decision to be loose with the ball. “We could have had 70.”

For as poor as the defense looked at times, the offense having an off night and yet still pretty easily putting up 48 points and 625 yards on 7.7 yards per play, while also running out the clock with a must-get first down to ice it was nice. This thing is good and has lots of potential.

Resting up a bit for ten days should help the defense recover. It should help the offense get crisper. So the best offense in the league can get more explosive, more productive, more dangerous. Thats exciting. “The teams that win the league get better as the season progresses.”

4. North Texas Is Bowl Eligible, 6-2 and 4-0 In The League

“We want to do something [last year’s team] didn’t do.”

Florida Atlantic looked like they might steal the game, but North Texas handled themselves in the biggest moments. The defense got to Veltkamp late, got sacks, got punts when they needed. The offense produced points when they needed. While Brown complained “could have put them away in the third” the team iced the game when it mattered. Two weeks in a row the offense killed the game when it mattered. That’s winning football.

Thursday night football in the American is Weird Football night. North Texas survived in Tulsa, and had a shootout tonight vs FAU. It doesn’t matter how you win, as long as you win. We said in the preview “The league determines championships on wins and losses, not on statistics, advanced or otherwise”

In what might possibly be the final year of conference championship games in college football, the Mean Green have the opportunity to host their first ever in DATCU.

We’ve seen the 2013 team drop a game to UTSA on a cold Saturday in November that would have given them the inside track to host the CUSA title game. We’ve seen them get blitzed in Boca to lose that opportunity in 2017. We’ve seen them drop a heartbreaker in San Antonio that lost them the chance in 2021. Last year we saw USF bully their way to 63 points. So North Texas had to play in New Orleans instead of Denton.

FAU tonight was not as good as those other teams, but it could have very easily been the kind of loss that everyone regretted. As it is, it will be forgotten (in a good way) as North Texas lines up against bigger and better foes.

Rice, who put up 49 points and ran all over this FAU squad this past weekend, is next. Then it is UTSA in San Antonio in a matchup of the two league leaders. UTSA has lost one conference game under Jeff Traylor (26-1).

The games will get tougher and I can’t wait. GMG

North Texas plays this evening on ESPN against FAU. We previewed the game yesterday.

I was browsing some things this morning and came across Parker Fleming’s Thurday graphics — you may remember him as the cfb-graphs guy. That side has been absorbed by dropbackHQ (dunno, either) and so he just posts the graphs on his twitter/x now.

I was reminded of how it is a recurring thing in life to be baffled by something that used to be familiar. For me, I didn’t recognize Eckel Rate. I had to look it up. It is essentially, ‘important plays inside the 40’.

Eckel Rate: How often your offense [defense] generates [allows] a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40 on any given drive.

Pts Per Eckel: What an offense [defense] does [allows] given that you [your opponent] has a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40

Eckel Ratio: The percent of total first downs and big play touchdowns in a game that you control. https://t.co/973yCZCmP9

Now, I am a nerdy guy. I like me some numbers, and some graphs and some spreadsheets. But also, I like watching an ill-advised athletic feat. “Eckel rate, and EPA/Dropback” feel divorced from the excitement of watching a football game.

You need both, of course. I like looking at the advanced numbers every couple of weeks to calibrate my own perceptions. If I think we are a good defense in certain situations but not in others, does the data see the same thing? When I see that North Texas is converting first downs at what “feels” like a high rate — is that borne out? (yes).

You never want to be blindsided and so it helps. The real value of these advanced numbers is in comparing teams with which you have no familiarity. The numbers never trump the film, for me, however. Because I love the game. The defense is bad? Why — is the defensive line not getting penetration? Is the scheme weird?

The nerds who wanted to improve the games — baseball most famously — were people who loved the game and used the numbers as justification for improvement. Home runs are undervalued! On-base percentage is undervalued! Three-pointers are undervalued! Coaches could stand to be more aggressive on 4th-and-short!

Some of these things were maybe obvious to viewers — I remember as a kid asking why they just didn’t dunk and shoot threes all game and the responses were like, “well that’s not how its done.” But eventually people came around when they saw the data — I also strongly suspect the rise in video game experience among football coaches helped them see the value of some football game theory.

It can be difficult to find the sweet spot between “understanding the game” and “show how clever I am”. It is also real easy to go from “wow I’m smarter about this game” to “I can make some cash by leveraging the insight I have.”

And so you can see how everything is a gambling market now.

Okay I do not mean to depress you. It’s game day. Let’s get hyped. Depending on the night’s proceedings we might do a live podcast after. Really kind of depends. MGN has real-life work things to deal with.

Some links:

Mean Green Gridiron previewed FAU→ You Tube
The Green Groom talks UNT → You Tube

Anchors Aweigh Podcast → Podcast (24:48 mark they discuss the NT game)
The MidReport → North Texas Debrief

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— GMG —

Editor’s note: This is a longish post so please click the button to read in the browser.

Remember about nine years ago when FAU was the boogie man? Even now if you peruse the FAU all-time records, the 69-31 game in Boca Raton in 2017 litters the page. I am haunted by it. It’s appropriate, given the season. North Texas opened as big favorites for this matchup, but that doesn’t mean much beyond setting expectations.

North Texas is a good team, 5-2 on the year and 3-0 in league play against a fairly decent schedule. FAU is more paper tiger than a danger, but in college football you should never write off the opponent. We said in the preparation for Charlotte that real time to win against weaker opponents is during the week, mentally. Preparing for FAU as if they were the best team in the league is how you show your superiority. There is randomness in every human endeavor, and so you want to eliminate that as a deciding factor by making sure you aren’t leaving the game up to the refs, or a bounce, or one or two plays.

October 29, 2026 ♦︎ 7:30 pm ♦︎ ESPN ♦︎ DATCU Stadium

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FAU is 5-2 and 2-1 in the league. That is enough of a statistic to prepare you for this game. The league determines championships on wins and losses, not on statistics, advanced or otherwise.

That said, how do we rate this FAU squad. At this point in the season, we can do some comparisons. They are the absolute worst in the league in yards allowed per play at 6.89. North Texas is mid-pack at 5.69 yards allowed per play. For comparison, the league leaders are ECU, and UAB at 4.87 and 4.96 respectively. Nationally, that’s pretty good. MGN likes to say “anything below 5 yards allowed is excellent, and under 4.5 is dominant.” ECU and UAB are 27th and 36th nationally, by the way. FAU is 135th.

“Well,” you might argue, “they faced a couple of triple-option teams in recent weeks.”

Sure, but so did Tulsa. Tulsa vs Navy? 6.5 yards allowed. Tulsa vs Rice? 5.68 yards allowed. They even were hit with a couple long runs allowed. Tulsa vs Army? 6.00 yards allowed.

How about FAU? Army 7.76 every time. Rice at 10.48, including four 50+ yarders. IT is bad. Navy, in week two (when they were figuring things out) hit them for 6.66 per play. We can peak over at Louisiana Monroe, a very bad offensive team in the Belt, who is averaging 5.10 yards per play on offense (poor — 120th in the nation) well they put up 6.04 on FAU. Not terrible. But essentially Monroe was shut down by Louisiana Tech, Troy, and UAB, and had a solid enough day moving the ball vs FAU.

A chart. FAU’s Opponent, their ypp in the game vs FAU, and the season average and the difference between these.

Florida 9.31 ypp — 6.31 ypp — +3
Navy 6.66 — 6.44 — +0.22
FIU 4.58 — 5.44 — -0.86
ULM 6.04 — 5.10 — +0.94
Tx Southern 4.33 (FCS)
Army 7.76 — 6.47 — +1.29
Rice 10.48 — 5.72 — +4.76

UNT, meanwhile, is the 4th best team in the nation in YPP gained at 7.49 per game. 1

Same chart from NT’s perspective:

Indiana 5.48 ypp — 4.10 — +1.38
UNLV 6.63 — 5.68 — +-0.95
TxSt 7.12 — 5.53 — +1.59
HCU 9.82 (FCS)
Tulsa 6.65 — 5.54 — +1.11
Charlotte 8.29 — 6.58 — +1.71
Navy 9.17 — 5.94 — +3.23

So we have a trend where FAU gives up about 1.56 more yards per play than their opponents averages and UNT gains about 1.66 yards per play more than the opponent typically allows. The caveat here is that these include the games played and I didn’t remove the games they were involved in. But we only want an idea, and don’t need to drill down deeply.

FAU is worse, in terms of yards per play allowed, than the 2024 NT defense which allowed 6.17 yards per play. You remember, the Caponi defense? FAU is worse than last year’s Charlotte, which NT set a passing record against (6.39). They are worse than Tulsa (5.54), Charlotte (6.58), and Navy (5.94). NT averaged 8+ ypp against those teams in two blowout wins and one OT thriller. The offense was not the problem.

Okay that is a lot of words and numbers to support the idea that FAU has a bad defense. Why, are they bad? Well the best I can see on some of the film is that they have poor eyes. Rice ran the triple on 2nd down and FAU were immediately out-leveraged.

The backers are slow to flow, and the QB — Ochoa — pitches this for a big gain.

For comparison’s sake, NT’s first defensive play vs Navy (a better offense than Rice) saw the same triple and NT got a tackle in the backfield on the pitch. Typically, good defenses will make the offense adjust, and it is a chess match. North Texas did well to stop Navy but then kind of ran out of gas for having been on the field for so long. Navy had to make adjustments but were ultimately stopped when it mattered.

Meanwhile, this is the third play for Rice. Yep, a TD.

This even happened as one of Rice’s pulling lineman was falling down. He ran untouched, y’all.

Rice was able to get a ton of push at the line, and that drove the entire offense. FAU had to over-commit to the dive to get any stops but that opened up the pitch and the QB keeper on the edges. Later, Rice hit them with an inverted veer, and the QB keeper portion also led to big yards and long touchdowns. They were sliced up for 49 points.

North Texas has been getting great push the last couple of weeks. Charlotte is bad, but Navy is respectable.

Navy isn’t very large along the defensive line and so likes to bring pressure. North Texas handled that well, and famously hit big play after big play early and often. I think there is a parallel here, and we can expect Neal Brown the play-caller to do some of the same.

Typically, Brown likes to start with a “drive starter” kind of throw, something easy and safe — a hitch, a quick bubble. It opens up the defense and gets everyone into rhythm. After that, expect Brown to see how they defend Jahiem White. Brown moves him all over but it all starts with an inside zone.

FAU has shown they will over-commit, and so expect more over-the-top throws to Stevenson. Rice was able to hit a big gainer on a deep bender route, and NT has plenty of those in the playbook. Navy has a relatively solid defense, and a good coordinator even if they are not supremely talented. They are generally smart, tough, and have good fundamentals. FAU was bullied along the line by Rice, and looked out of position, had bad eyes, and very little closing speed.

It’s difficult to see how FAU is going to stop North Texas. The gameplan is typically “Stop Jahiem White, and pressure Tayven Jackson to force poor decisions.” All easier said than done. The teams that have sold-out to stop White have been picked apart by Jackson. When teams have been successful forcing turnovers, it is by bringing big blitzes, or when Jackson is doing play-action stuff (Texas State, Tulsa, Navy). But even when turning the ball over Jackson is still finding his guys. So best likely case scenario for FAU is that they get one turnover from Jackson but three touchdowns.

Offensively, FAU runs an Air Raid. Modern Air Raids all have a little flair and quirks for the pay-caller and we’ve said in this space that “Air Raid” is more of a philosophy than a set of plays. It is a ball-control offense that wants to stretch you thin with horizontal and vertical threats. It has more in common with the Wing-T and Triple Option than you might think.

Like we’ve seen in Denton with Morris/Rodgers/C. Morris/Mestemaker/Brown/Jackson — the offense puts a lot on the QB to make reads and decisions. Caden Veltkamp is huge ( 6'5") and has a big arm. He is not as efficient as Jackson, but also doesn’t have the safety of a good run game.

Veltkamp is also simply not as good at reading the defense as other Air Raid QBs. Rice was able to bring pressure and get sacks that should have instead been throwaways or quick gains. There is a line of thinking that a sack is a Quarterback statistic. And by that measure FAU has been in the bottom half of American teams. For context, NT is allowing just .86 sacks per game, which is just below Army (0.43) and just ahead of Navy (1.29). FAU is at 1.86.

He’s tall, and he can run a bit, so he holds the ball too long looking for a big play. When it works, it is highlight material.

Ethan Messer is the go-to guy for FAU. He can return it, and catch it, and they also will run it. Here, they pitch it to him from a pistol look.

Defensive coordinator Matt Powledge will have to decide if Messer is good enough to deserve special handling, or if base defense and base principles are enough. Reacting to the various movements can backfire if you can’t get set, or have to over-communicate. That slight hesitation and delay can expose the defense to precisely the thing they are trying to prevent. My vote is to go base principles and make him make you adjust. He had a couple of easy drops vs Rice that should keep him humble.

He is a slot receiver so he gets the majority of his catches in the hole, in the seam behind a linebacker, and in flats and outs. In the red zone they ran that toss play above from pistol, but also threw a slant/screen from trips. If you’ve seen Texas State, or any Air Raid squad, you’ve seen these things. They don’t line up and run at you, but try to out-clever you and with great execution it is dangerous.

They run a lot of standard stuff, and I think the main danger for NT’s secondary is depth, and penalties. UNT has been solid getting to the QB but has given up first downs because of penalties. They also haven’t been great at holding on to gift intercept-able balls. FAU is the type of team that will look like crap for a series, get bailed, out and then find a score and leave you feeling like you won the possession but still gave up points.

A notable moment was when FAU was leading 51-49 vs Rice, and had a chance to kill the game (much like North Texas at Navy) and couldn’t convert a first down. Rice ultimately missed a go-ahead FG and that was that.

Predictions and Odd Thoughts

It is clear to me why the Mean Green are favored so heavily. Neal Brown has the more efficient, explosive offense at home. FAU can do some nice things, but hasn’t proved they can do so consistently. 51 points against Rice was impressive, but that was in Boca Raton, and not in Denton on a Thursday night. It is tougher to do things on the road and Veltkamp is known to throw some interceptions. He threw 17 last year (although he was hurt).

Jackson is PFF’s highest rated QB right ahead of Veltkamp this year. The difference is that North Texas has the better defense, the better running back, and home field advantage. (PFF also has NT ranked 2nd in the league in defense).

I see North Texas blowing this open with more big plays. The hype of the moment can easily get this team too energetic but I think Neal Brown will do a better job of getting his guys ready than Eric Morris did vs USF last year. So expect North Texas to hit some big home runs, and run away with this.

MGN prediction: North Texas 55 - FAU 17

The run game is too strong, the pass game is clicking, and the defense will get to Veltkamp and get a turnover or two.

GMG

On3 has been on the Baylor beat pretty quickly, as news has spread that they fired Dave Aranda. The top candidate is UTSA’s Jeff Traylor, who previously interviewed at Texas Tech, and A&M and who has recently reminded everyone of how happy he is with his 10-year contract on a radio appearance.

North Texas’ head coach Neal Brown has not been mentioned outside of random social media posts from fans doing a bit of trolling. It looks like the candidate list is Traylor, Kinne, and then a grab bag of agents angling for their clients and long shots. Is Lincoln Riley leaving LA for Waco? Just because he loves Texas that much? I doubt it but it is possible.

Beyond that the Baylor AD Doug McNamee is being patient and won’t do what Texas Tech reportedly did, and require the coach to “start immediately.” That decision reportedly caused Traylor to decline, and he subsequently signed his big renewal.

You can see how these things work. A coach is fired and it affects the entire landscape of football.

MGN’s thinking is that one American Conference title puts Neal Brown at the top of these kinds of lists for the offseason. A 10-win season probably boosts him to the “other candidates to watch.” Neal Brown is not hyped up for his offense (wrongly) but he has North Texas at 4th in the country — just 4 yards per game behind Morris’ old North Texas-infused Cowboys and about eight yards ahead of Baylor candidate CJ Kinne.

If this year goes the way we want, we’d be employing a coach who will have won multiple G6 titles, with experience at the P4 level, and a reputation for offense. Sounds enticing, no? I’m sure it will to the many programs who will become unhappy with their teams. Arkansas is already regretting not hiring Morris and instead hiring Silverfield, for example.

Whatever Baylor does will shift the landscape. Hiring Kinne or Traylor means those jobs become open and coordinators and former head coaches will want to move. Maybe we see a Patrick Cobbs get some shine somewhere? Maybe we see a Skyler Cassity move up and out?

Right now North Texas sits in a good spot. Having been poached and picked over last year— basically the entire football staff and roster — things are relatively settled. But you start winning again and people notice and begin to covet what you have.

The game is the game.

It may not have counted for anything in the standings, but the home debut for the 2026-27 North Texas Mean Green men's basketball team ended in brutal fashion.

In front of a frustrated home crowd, UNT fell to the Northwestern State Demons 62-60 in an exhibition after a buzzer-beating putback gave the visitors the victory.

The result won't affect UNT's record, but the performance raised questions about the team's offensive execution and defensive consistency.

With the regular season approaching, here are four takeaways from the Mean Green's loss.

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1. Newcomers provide some positives

The Mean Green returned just four players from last season's roster, making this an opportunity for fans to get their first extended look at the new additions.

Junior guard Cash Chavis, who transferred from UT Arlington, led the new guys with 13 points. He shot 4-for-11 from the field, including 2-for-4 from beyond the arc, while adding five rebounds in 26 minutes.

Sophomore center Ousmane Ndour, who joined UNT from Spanish club CB Benicarló, finished with eight points on a perfect 4-for-4 shooting night. Freshman guard TJ Crumble also made the most of his opportunities, scoring nine points on 3-for-4 shooting in 17 minutes.

The additions combined for 35 of UNT's 60 points, accounting for more than half of the team's offensive production.

With so much roster turnover, the Mean Green will need these new players to develop into reliable contributors as the season progresses.

2. Perimeter defense remains a concern

Defense has been a defining characteristic of North Texas basketball, dating back to the McCasland era.

That identity wasn't consistently evident against Northwestern State.

The Demons shot 40.4% from the field and 38.9% from 3-point range. Senior guard Kai Simpson led all scorers with 23 points on 7-for-15 shooting.

The final possession was another reminder of the importance of finishing defensive stops, with Kordrick Turner securing an offensive rebound and Simpson eventually scoring the game-winning basket at the buzzer.

UNT actually won the rebounding battle 39-34 and forced 12 turnovers, so the defensive performance wasn't entirely negative.

Against a Northwestern State team picked eighth in the Southland Conference preseason poll, the result raises questions about how UNT will handle stronger opponents on its schedule, like McNeese, Santa Clara, Wichita State and Memphis.

3. UNT needs a more consistent offensive identity

Against Northwestern State, UNT struggled to find consistent offensive rhythm. The Mean Green shot just 37.7% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point range.

UNT also went through extended scoring droughts, including a stretch of more than seven minutes without a point in the second half. Those empty possessions allowed Northwestern State to remain in control and put pressure on the Mean Green.

Junior guard Je'Shawn Stevenson, the American Conference preseason player of the year, struggled with his shooting early. He finished 4-for-14 from the field and 2-for-8 from 3-point range.

Despite those struggles, Stevenson led UNT with 16 points and five assists, helping keep the Mean Green within striking distance. His ability to contribute even on an inefficient shooting night was important, but it also highlighted the need for more consistent production from the rest of the roster.

UNT cannot expect Stevenson to rescue the offense every night. The Mean Green need better ball movement, more purposeful off-ball movement and additional players capable of creating scoring opportunities.

The team has time to develop that chemistry. However, the lack of offensive consistency against Northwestern State is something that needs to be addressed before games begin to count.

4. An exhibition loss isn't the end of the world

At the end of the day, this game won't count against UNT's regular-season record.

The Mean Green nearly defeated Colorado in their other exhibition, demonstrating that the team has the potential to compete against quality opponents.

That doesn't mean the loss should be dismissed.

UNT showed flashes of promise through its newcomers, rebounding and ability to force turnovers. At the same time, the team struggled with shooting efficiency, offensive consistency and the ability to get a final defensive stop.

Those are correctable issues, but the coaching staff needs to address them before the regular season begins. This won't appear in the standings, but the lessons from it should carry into the regular season.

The Mean Green have an opportunity to use this performance as a wake-up call and establish the identity they'll need to compete throughout the year.

Men’s basketball begins the season next Monday against Southwest Christian at the Super Pit.

Navy-North Texas is seemingly always an offensive affair. In 2007 the famous 74-62 was the first meeting between the two. Then in 2023, Navy won 27-24 in a game that saw big runs from Ayo Adeyi. Last year NT won in Denton 31-17 in a battle of unbeatens. Today, Navy and North Texas combined for 900+ yards. Its never simple and that is fine with me. We want entertainment, after all.

North Texas never trailed in this game, and though Navy got within three points North Texas was never really challenged. Although if you ask Neal Brown, that wasn’t the case. He was quoted this week praising Navy’s program, coaching staff, players, and atmosphere.

“Offensively, we played ok. Defensively, we bent, but we got a key takeaway and we bowed up at a couple of opportune times. Special teams, we played really sound and had the punt-return touchdown, which was huge because it allowed us to keep momentum and we never trailed. It was a three-phase win. We made them have to play from behind and that’s not something they like to do.”

North Texas scored on offense, defense, and special teams — a first for Navy allowing this since a Notre Dame game. For NT, this was the first time they did this since Arkansas in 2018. Coincidently, it was also the first time North Texas returned a punt for a score since that game.

It was a game that looked as if North Texas could score whenever they wanted. It might have been too good, as Navy dominated the time of possession. Starting the second half with the ball, Neal Brown said “we just wanted to get Jahiem White the ball” and began feeding him. That first drive ended with a sack on third down and a punt. “That was my fault,” said Brown.

Jahiem White finished with 20 carries for 174 yards and four grabs for 58 yards including a game-sealing 7-yard grab under 2-minutes on 4th and 1. “We knew that would win us the game.”

Add to that Justin Stevenson’s 209 yard, 2 score game and you have a monster offense. “[Stevenson] wasn’t our number one guy to start the year but the work he’s put in has got him there.” Asked what kind of work went into a clutch 3rd-and-15 conversion from Jackson to Stevenson, “just the mindset and work we put in.” Brown said “We were up by 10 but if we don’t get it, we have to punt and Navy still has a chance.”

North Texas converted then, and the 4th and 1 and killed the game, using up the final 6-plus minutes.

Let’s get into some reactions:

1. Neal Brown’s Offense Is Cooking

Tayven Jackson is statistically the best QB in the league in a good number of measures. He put up 3 scores, 300+ yards, and 77+ completion percentage. Justin Stevenson is stepping into the number one wideout role. We mentioned on the show that Wyatt Young was not at this pace last year, and he finished with 1200 yards and 10 scores. Justin Stevenson is taking the top off secondaries and grabbing super-important chain-movers.

Of course Jahiem White is a cheat code. He looks like he’s running at a different speed. As teams are focusing on him, its opening up the pass game even more. Today North Texas opened the game up with the pass and closed it with the run. White found paydirt with an ankle-breaking 59-yard run. He closed the game out with crucial first down runs, and a big 4th down grab. He’s the best player in the league. He wears Mean Green.

2. The Defense Got Huge Stops Even Though The Numbers Are Bad

507 yards allowed. 363 yards rushing allowed. 39 points allowed. But huge stops when it mattered (the punt) and a defensive score.

The Air Raid for years was criticized for being a number-compiling te1am but not necessarily an offense that could get a yard, or a point when it mattered. There are plenty of defenses that do the same. The North Texas defense did a great job getting stops early to allow the offense to get up big, and came up when it mattered to seal the victory. They were scored upon, but added 6-points of their own. It’s like a pitcher that could get a bat on the ball and help his own cause.

As the secondary improves, we should see a more coherent team. Navy is a unique proposition and MGN thinks they were starting slow this season as they adjusted to life without Blake Horvath. Now that Jackson Gutierrez has firmly established himself as a weapon, we should see more Navy touchdowns the rest of the season. The academies are always difficult and any win is a good win, no matter how achieved.

It was great to see and hear the NT defense hit hard and tackle. Navy was able to find new gaps and different blocks — Aaron Alexander said they started “running counter late, and had more movement” — but North Texas never looked overwhelmed or lost. There were mistakes — Pat Taylor had 3 defensive penalties — but in the end, it was effective enough to win.

3. The Special Teams Was Good

Keegan Brewer is now a firefighter but his claim to fame was returning the “Peter Pan” play to the house vs Arkansas, as North Texas scored in all three phases in 2018. Today, Dalton Carnes scored on a play called “Oscar”

“We saw on film that Air Force didn’t return the kick. We knew the ball was going to the right. We lined me up as a vice guy on the right. The team pushed their guys to the left.”

Was that the easiest PR he’s ever had? “Yeah they made it easy for me (smiles)”

The offense doesn’t have to be perfect when the special teams and defense add to the scoreboard tally. I think it is very possible NT scores the ball anyway, but its good not to have to put it to chance. Jeff Crosby came over from App State and so far his group’s performance has been underwhelming. He moved opinion in the other direction with this.

4. Neal Brown Is Coach-in’

MGN loved the consistent messaging about the situation. Presented with an opportunity to simply enjoy being in 2nd place in the league, Neal Brown had consistently down played it “its just two games,” and focused attention on the task ahead. It is coaching cliché, sure, but it has worked.

The biggest slip up was in San Marcos this year but recent events have shown a Bobcat team that is very difficult to stop, and North Texas being tied in the top of the 4th quarter on the road is more impressive every day.

Every team evolves as the season progresses, and Neal Brown’s comments suggest a guy that understands that. This week he mentioned the things that contribute to progressing positively — “lifting the right way, practicing.” They are common sense, but haven’t been expressed around here.

Eric Morris is rightly regarded as a coaching rising star, but Neal Brown should not be considered a coaching has-been. He won at Troy, in some difficult circumstances and is winning in Denton. He took a difficult situation — a blank slate with high expectations — and has found a QB, built a tough defense that gives his high-powered offense a chance. Oh and he has the best player in the league in the backfield.

Whatever you want to say about non-conference, he has his team undefeated through three games in the league.

Navy has been a quality program for the last two decades. They develop, rather than re-stock and the unique challenge of a military commitment make the entire effort unique. They have some different dudes, and while previous coaches have simply said “we are better athletes” and leaned on that, no matter what, North Texas vs the Service Academies has been a challenge for the Mean Green. Two years ago, North Texas went to Annapolis with Eric Morris, Chandler Rogers, and were blitzed to (football) death. It flipped the game. Last year, North Texas’ offense was superior to the Blake Horvath offense but the underlying numbers suggested the game was a little closer than the 31-17 score.

Neal Brown called them “Innovative on both sides of the ball.” Drew Cronic has been praised across the coaching ranks for his evolution of the Navy Triple, by adding some spread things, and some other Wing-T things. We mentioned last year how Brian Newberry’s 3-4 base has evolved into a 4-2-5 hybrid. Football is innovation, but it is largely the same stuff repackaged over and over again.

Coach Brown mentioned first encountering the option-based offenses of Willie Fritz in the Sun Belt and changing his philosophy for defending it. Instead of a cram-week of preparation, he does it “year round” including here at North Texas. “We started in the summer after we had our base install.” On Mondays, the team does “just a five minute period. Different looks.”

It is a good plan, and we expect North Texas to defend the triple option with different looks. MidReport’s Mike James said that no one really plays base vs Navy and that makes sense. We expect more five-man looks along the line, but the real challenge will be in keeping eye-discipline. The UTSA defense were selling out to stop outside zone runs and got burned by leaking TEs.

North Texas is a little deeper this week, as Chase Canada and Anthony Benford are expected to be back. Navy isn’t going to throw the ball over the top a ton, but it never hurts to have depth.

Navy is aggressive. Neal Brown said “they will do cover-0” and its true. The Middies make up for their lack of top-end talent by simply being disciplined and playing with aggression. Sure, you could sit back and pick them apart. So they won’t let you, and will bring any number of similarly-sized guys at you.

They will stunt, and simulate blitzes and throw all kinds of junk. UTSA tried leaking their backs and using five-man protection and that was stuffed. They then kept their back in and that helped a bit. They needed QB scrambles, and rollouts and lots of things to work. Eventually they got their check-down game to hit some big ones, but the QB was hit a ton.

Expect Neal Brown to be well-aware of this, and protect his QB. The battle will be in Navy trying to limit Jahiem White touches and Neal Brown trying to get White in advantageous positions.

North Texas is good about using motion and formations to find openings, and Tayven Jackson has been good in hostile environments but Navy will bring tons of pressure and expect a sack or two. Recall that in 2023, Chandler Rogers and Adeyi were able to hit big plays. Big plays will be there. The question is if North Texas can sustain drives, can recover from negative plays (sacks, TFLs) and limit turnovers (sack-fumbles are the worst). Jackson has been good this season, but has shown an affinity for fumbling the ball. You know Newberry is highlighting that this week.

Navy is all but out of the league race, and while you can’t win the league in October, you can certainly lose it. North Texas is sitting in a good spot but only has played the two conference games. One was won by the hairs of a knee. This league has more parity than anyone wants to admit, so this is a huge game simply by being a game on the schedule.

Prediction: North Texas 41 - Navy 24

NT pulls away late after a tough first half of back-and-forth football.

GMG

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:27 - Navy Talk

00:48:09 - American Talk

00:50:43 - Tragedy

00:54:37 - Outro

00:58:41 - Baseball Outro

UNT at Navy* (3:30 p.m., CBSSN) —

North Texas had a bye week and moved up the standings. Memphis fell on Friday night to Tulane on the road, while Navy and UTSA battled in San Antonio. The resulting standings leave UTSA in first place with a 3-0 record, and UNT at second with a 2-0 record. Navy has all but eliminated themselves after leaving San Antonio at 1-3.

Last year the lead up to the game was about two strong programs but we felt confident in the situation. As it was, North Texas came up with a big stop, and won fairly convincingly. The nation was taking notice of the Mean Green. This season? Well we don’t have the same kind of hype coming into the game. North Texas has been a flamethrower on offense and (like last year) is coming off a win vs Charlotte. Navy lost in the final moments against UTSA in game that saw very little defense. Navy had 8.5 yards per play while UTSA had 6.7. It was basically who would have the ball last.

They are still a developmental team, meaning they grow their players. This is the first year post-Blake Horvath, who ran for 1200 yards last year. In steps Jackson Gutierrez and Braxton Woodson, who have shared some duties at QB including some dual-QB sets.

For North Texas this begins the tough part of the schedule. The trip away to Navy followed by a quick turnaround vs FAU in Denton (an improved team) followed by hosting Rice then a trip to San Antonio to play UTSA.

We saw this week in college football that there is no such thing as Destiny. Everyone in the top 10 was vulnerable and it extended down to the American. Memphis lost away. UTSA nearly was upset. North Texas is favored by a couple of points but that doesn’t mean anything. The Academies can beat anyone, anywhere, with a unique style and mentality.

It is a huge test for the Mean Green.

It’s Navy Week, y’all.

GMG

Week 7 Results

Thursday, October 15

UAB 30, East Carolina 17* (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

UAB actually never led in this game until overtime. They took a seven point lead, and intercepted the ECU OT possession and returned it for six, for the very rare 13-point win in OT.

Friday, October 16

Tulane 31, Memphis 17* (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

Memphis turned the ball over seemingly every possession. Tulane sat on some things and it looked like one of those games where a scheme was exposed. That said, the advanced numbers liked Memphis throughout. Will Hall maybe saved his job.

Saturday, October 17

Army 56, Florida Atlantic 24* (Noon, CBSSN)

Army dominated this game.

Charlotte 38, Temple 31* (1 p.m., ESPN+)

Upset! Charlotte are winless no more. This was so embarrassing for Temple that KC Keeler fired his defensive line coach and reassigned defensive play-calling duties.

Tulsa 38, Rice 17* (4:30 p.m., ESPN+)

Rice had a couple of long runs, but didn’t control the game. You can say that about most of their games this season.

South Florida 29, Kent State 2 (7 p.m., ESPN+)

Sure.

UTSA 38, Navy 34* (8 p.m., ESPNU)

Entertaining on the field. Navy jumped out to a 14-point lead, but UTSA used an onside to steal momentum. They went up 21-20 at half. Navy missed an extra-point. It was back-and-forth from then on. Navy hit a couple of long passes including a Navy record 92-yard play-action pass to the TE. In the end the Navy defense couldn’t get the final stop, and Navy ran out of time. Also, Navy had so many false-starts and penalties throughout. Brian Newberry blamed the crowd/arena noise.

The game was seriously marred by the death of a fast-rope military demonstration gone wrong. The service member fell, was helped off the field but the game was not paused or delayed. League officials and team representatives said they were following protocol. LINK

WEEK 8 SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 22

East Carolina at Memphis* (7:30 p.m., ESPN2) — get right game for Memphis

Friday, October 23

Army at Tulsa (8:30 p.m., ESPN2)

Saturday, October 24

Rice at Florida Atlantic* (12 p.m., ESPNU)

UNT at Navy* (3:30 p.m., CBSSN) < — Our guys

UTSA at Tulane* (8 p.m., ESPNU)

Standings

Collision Course for November 14

UTSA 3-0
UNT 2-0
————————
Still within striking distance, as one of UTSA/UNT will fall

Army 3-1
Memphis 2-1
UAB 2-1
FAU 1-1
ECU 1-1
Tulane 1-1
———————————-
Need lots of help

USF 1-2
Tulsa 1-2
Temple. 1-2
Charlotte 1-2
———————————
Pretty much done and dusted

Navy 1-3
Rice 0-3

Notes from the league:

• Tulane’s six turnovers forced is the most for the program since forcing eight against Army during the 2003 season (9/20/03).

• Tulane improves to 30-4 in conference regular season play since 2022. The .882 percentage is the third-best in the country in that period of time.

• Army scored just 22 seconds in the game after the defense forced an INT on their opening drive to get the offense the ball.

• Florida Atlantic’s Easton Messer collected 14 passes, one shy of the program’s single-game receptions record that he tied in the previous season.

• Charlotte earned their first win of the season and earned Head Coach Tim Albins first win over an FBS team and first American Conference win.

• The 49ers ended a 15-game losing streak

• Charlotte scored 31 of its 38 points in the second half

• UTSA becomes the first American Conference team to be bowl eligible with a 6-1 record through seven games. It is the 7^th straight bowl eligible season for the Roadrunners

• The Roadrunners improve their record at the Alamodome under Jeff Traylor to 37-6 overall and 27-1 in conference games. They lead all FBS teams with home conference wins since 2020.

• Rice had two players with runs of at least 75 yards for the first time since 2004 (Jacurri Brown, 78 yards; Ben Grice, 88 yards)

• Tulsa forced one turnover in the game. Tulsa now has forced 15 turnovers on the season, which is top five in the nation.

• Temple’s Peter Clarke scored on a 4-yard TD reception to becomes Temple’s all-time TD leader by a tight end (11 career TDs), passing Randy Grossman (1970-73)

James Madison University will join the American by at least the summer of 2028. The realistic scenario is that by 2027 we see the new league with them included.

The evaluation considered six primary areas: institutional and academic alignment; competitive strength and trajectory; institutional investment; financial sustainability and member value; brand, media value, fan engagement, and geography and operational fit. The conference used multiple sources of analysis, including a quantitative media-value study examining market characteristics, audience performance, fan engagement, competitive performance and other value drivers.

Brett McMurphy reported previously that Miami Ohio and UCONN were interested in joining the league as well. The reactions to that ranged from labeling it as self-aggrandizement (“these discussions happen all the time and the American just leaked it to make itself look better”) to being real (“where there is smoke there is fire”).

It is no-doubt a clear marker for the league as one of the premier G6 leagues. Whereas the Pac-12 has made moves to position themselves as one the upper tiers, recruiting Texas State from the Sun Belt last year and adding various Mountain West programs, the American has now poached the Sun Belt’s premier program. JMU is fresh off a college football playoff appearance and boasts both Cignetti and Chesney as coaching alumni. Curt Cignetti went on to win the national championship with Indiana, with more than a few JMU guys. Bob Chesney has currently has UCLA winning with former JMU players.

The kind of program that can load and reload is valuable, as this is the modern college football landscape.

What does it mean for the future?

Memphis, USF, and Tulane are seemingly perpetually unhappy and on the constant lookout for new conference alignments. Memphis practically begged to join the Big 12 in recent years, awhile USF fans make eyes at the ACC anytime they can.

Congress is still mulling over the details of the Protect College Sports Act, and the College Football Playoff is expanding to 24-teams, no one knows where the best alignment is. Some analysts have said the era of conferences is over, and that the “best”, name-brand teams will go independent. Notre Dame is famously independent, and their national brand carries them to a sweetheart playoff possibility every year.

In the 1970s and 1980s it was more common for independent programs to schedule freely. The rise of conference affiliation came when the SEC was able to expand, secure a lucrative conference title game and media contract. To keep up, conferences expanded. The Big 8 became the Big 12, killing the old Southwest Conference. Expanded television deals and jealously eventually led to moves like Nebraska to the Big 10, and Colorado the Pac-12. This decade has seen the extreme version of that, with UCLA and USC joining the Big 10, to be in a league with Rutgers.

An expanded playoff should lead to something like a reasonable league affiliation situation.

Is there a good reason for 15-teams in the American? Does JMU fit with Rice and Tulsa and North Texas? The answer, for now, is “yes”. All of these programs share similar levels of commitment to the sports — something like a minimum $10 million dollar football spend — and lack of access to the “big time.”

JMU raises the bar in this league. They have consistent investment, a winning culture, a committed fan and donor base in both football and basketball. It should be a very interesting few years in the American.

It is the BYE and we can break out of the relentless grind of football season to take a breath. The hoops squads, as I type this, are at American Media Days. Kenpom says the men’s squad is 107th. Seems about right. We wrote about the team and we haven’t really had anything dissuade us. At MGN we love hoops and we will be watching even if it isn’t interesting to the rest of the world.

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Earlier this fall, it was reported that JMU and Miami(OH) were looking to join the American. Everyone involved said the right legalese and press officer approved words that suggested it was all just due diligence and nothing serious.

Nothing is real until it is.

Now it is real.

JMU has been a model football program at the G5/6 level. They hired Cignetti who went on to win a national championship with former JMU players. They hired Chesney, who is winning at UCLA with JMU players. Today they have Billy Napier who is winning.

Adding quality programs is a good thing for the league. It raises all boats and puts a clock on programs who are dragging.

The press release:

IRVING, Texas — The American Conference Board of Directors voted unanimously today to admit James Madison University (JMU) as a full member of the conference. James Madison will begin competition in the American no later than July 1, 2028.

Following a formal written application from James Madison University, the American conducted a deliberate and comprehensive due diligence process to evaluate the institution, its alignment with the American and the long-term value of the relationship. The evaluation considered six primary areas: institutional and academic alignment; competitive strength and trajectory; institutional investment; financial sustainability and member value; brand, media value, fan engagement; and geography and operational fit. The conference used multiple sources of analysis, including a quantitative media-value study examining market characteristics, audience performance, fan engagement, competitive performance and other value drivers.

“The American Conference is a destination, and James Madison University represents everything we value and strengthens our membership,” said Commissioner Tim Pernetti. “The Dukes have rapidly built a nationally recognized brand through a culture of innovation, investment, bold leadership and competitive success. JMU’s trajectory aligns with who we are and where we are going. We look forward to welcoming the entire JMU community to the American and building something special together. Thank you to our highly engaged presidents, chancellors, and athletics directors for their thoughtful and collaborative work that led to a unanimous vote.”

James Madison brings a rapidly growing national brand, proven competitive performance, strong fan engagement and meaningful reach across Virginia, Washington, D.C. and the Mid-Atlantic states. JMU and the American share a commitment to higher education, student development and creating an outstanding student-athlete experience. This addition reinforces the American’s identity of innovation, grit and service and advances a conference that is Built to Rise.

James Madison’s membership reflects a meaningful investment in the American and has been structured to protect and enhance the value of the conference’s current membership. The additional media inventory associated with JMU’s membership expands the conference’s existing media platform, while current members’ distributions will be enhanced. JMU has also made a significant financial and commercial commitment to joining the American and investing alongside its members.

About the American Conference

The American Conference is a member of the National Collegiate Athletic Association. The league was founded in 1979, reconstituted in 2013 as the American Athletic Conference, and rebranded as the American Conference in 2025. With the conference office in Irving, Texas, the American includes the following institutions: University of Alabama at Birmingham, United States Military Academy West Point (Army, in football only), University of North Carolina at Charlotte, East Carolina University, Florida Atlantic University, University of Memphis, United States Naval Academy (Navy, in football only), University of North Texas, Rice University, University of South Florida, Temple University, University of Texas at San Antonio, Tulane University, University of Tulsa and Wichita State University (basketball and Olympic sports).

Under the leadership of Commissioner Tim Pernetti, the American sponsors 20 sports, nine for men and 11 for women; is a member of the College Football Playoff; has television partnerships with ESPN and CBS Sports; and in the spring of 2019 signed a foundational television agreement with ESPN that commenced in 2020-21 and extends through the 2033-34 academic year. 

For more information, visit TheAmerican.org.

We wanted and predicted a blowout. Anything can happen when you play the actual game. There was a moment when Charlotte looked like they would keep pace and make it some kind of interesting. A first-drive FG for North Texas. Charlotte matched that a little later to make it 10-3. Then they pulled out a 75-yard score to make it 17-10. Did we have a shoot out brewing?

No. We did not.

The Mean Green scored for fun in the first half, Jahiem White ran for 105, including a 61-yard touchdown. Tayven Jackson threw for 5 touchdowns, finding Max Reese, Justin Stevenson, Koch, and Tipton and all were wide open. The league’s (arguably) best offense moved the ball easily against the league’s worst defense.

Observations as I fought off an afternoon nap:

1. Jackson/White/Stevenson Is The New Big 3

Tayven had 349 through the air, 122 of that was to Stevenson and they linked up for a couple of scores. Jahiem White easily ran for 105 on just 12 carries and 1 score. We hoped that was going to be the case and it was.

The squad has a bye to get healthy, and rest their bodies ahead of the mean of the American conference season. Jackson will finish the game as the league leader in touchdown passes. (Memphis’ Stokes plays against UAB later this evening, and is at 14. Jackson is at 15).

2. The Defense Looked Tough, Even If Slightly Vulnerable

North Texas is down five secondary players, and a defensive lineman. The vibe in the game chats is always one of concern that the defense will get sliced up. Charlotte did hit on an RPO slant for 75-yards. They did amass 203 yards of offense in the first half. They came in averaging 290. Was North Texas getting sliced up by a bad team? No.

This was very much a repeat of the win over FCS Houston Christian. That Huskies team looked dangerous in the first half but were dominated in the second. Charlotte only had 71 yards in the second half total.

To be fair, the game was over. It was 40-10, and Charlotte went about auditioning for QBs. The 49ers finished with 4.9 yards per play (NT had 8.3)

3. Business Was Handled

There is a particular kind of coaching required for these types of games. Neal Brown had his team prepared, ready for the opponent, and showed no mercy. He used the Thursday night Cowboys (debacle) game as motivation and teaching, to explain the importance of expecting seemingly bad opponents to be capable.

We said this week that North Texas should win going away but only if they took this seriously. They did and they did. No one was hurt (as far as we know). The team gets to get a little healthier with (reportedly) Chase Canada back after the bye. The North Texas weakness is the secondary, and that is getting stronger. The strength is the offense and that is healthy and clicking.

Of course there is always something to deal with and Neal Brown will focus on recruiting, keeping his guys sharp, and preparing the rest of the season.

North Texas moves to 4-2 (2-0). GMG

Is Charlotte good? No. In just about every aspect of footballing PFF grades North Texas better. There is plenty of reason to think North Texas will win this going away and that may not be super enticing as a viewing option but Head Coach Neal Brown says. “We have a good football team. We are exciting to watch. I think we have to of the better individual players in all of college football.”

I agree. This should be a big win, but Brown obviously respects Tim Albin, Charlotte coach. He won at Ohio and it seemed that the riches and location of Charlotte, NC would be conducive to winning. It has not been the case. “I know those coaches” says Neal Brown. Yes, but we also see the film.

Coach Brown isn’t lying to us. Tayven Jackson saying “We see a good team, we look at the film.” isn’t gaslighting. It is a mindset required for winning. On the Sunday MGN show we said that North Texas should beat Charlotte by 40, and to do that they have to prepare for the 49ers as if they were the best team in the nation.

Because we are saying that North Texas at full strength and full focus is good, and Charlotte isn’t. But a half-speed Mean Green? Well anything can happen to them.

Every team has a couple of guys who can beat you. They are on scholarship, have a competitive spirit, and have a new opportunity to win when the game starts. The key to beating a poor team is to win early, kill the hope and let the bad vibes take over. “Same shii different day” they’ll be saying. You win, they have the sads. It’s how it should be. If you let them hang around you get a situation where they have nothing to lose. They start throwing passes that should not be caught. They think they can win. The pressure flips, and you start getting the yips. “We should be killing this team!” The fans start yelling “What are we doing?!” and that’s how you get upset.

Charlotte has a good plan, although there are some questions about who should be the starter. The Charlotte media (sidenote: they have a good blogosphere) has been questioning the play-calling, the depth chart, and lots of things. As you do when you are a consistent loser.

What is the problem? Well in the modern version of this game, you need a good quarterback. Charlotte doesn’t really have one. They have talent at the skill spots, but no one to get them the ball (WR) or no one to take any pressure off (RB). Said differently, the QB play has been bad.

Anyway you slice it, Charlotte have been poor throwing the ball. Seven interceptions thrown is the worst in the American. Their yards-per-attempt is only above Rice and Tulsa. They don’t throw for big yards (just 6.0 yards per attempt) even if they throw it 6th most.

When we watched the film from the Memphis game, we saw a QB that couldn’t make the simple throws consistently, couldn’t make the big time throws at all, and also didn’t diagnose the defense quickly. There may be a quarterback change coming this week.

The run game is a lot of outside zone, and Rutledge got free for 75-yards and a score vs Memphis. If you were around for the Lance Dunbar era, it smells of that. A poor offense hoping for a big run from your best player. The Charlotte media have wondered why Rutledge doesn’t get more touches and from what I’ve seen it simply is that the offense can’t get enough first downs to earn him more touches.

A closer examination shows a guy that is not exactly lighting it up when he gets the ball outside of that one highlight. Still, North Texas was sliced open by Texas State and should treat every run the rest of the way as penance for that awfulness.

Defensively, they are solid even if Memphis dominated them easily. There’s a question if Memphis’ Veer-N-Shoot style, with the tempo and wide splits was just too foreign for Charlotte and contributed to the blowout. Here is the defense’s performance thus far.

vs FCS Citadel L 41–42 | 400 yards allowed 6.35 yards per play
at 9 Ole Miss L 9–41 | 420 yards 7.24 ypp
at App State L 21–26 | 435 yards 5.72 ypp
vs Louisiana L 7–24 | 292 yards 3.74 ypp
vs Memphis L 8–59 | 674 yards 7.57 ypp

The most impressive performance was against Louisiana, one of the worst offensive teams in the Sun Belt. App State is quality, and the 49er defensive outing was respectable. Memphis’ OL bullied Charlotte all day and there was nothing much they could do. The 49ers tried a lot of three-down looks to deal with the wide splits, but that was mostly handled easily. Charlotte tried scrapes and stunts and everything and nothing was successful. Memphis went heavier later with two H-Backs and walked the ball in with plenty of gap runs.

I like to think of these kinds of games as having wide margin for error. North Texas has to play and practice and prepare as if there was zero margin for error, to maintain sharpness and blow this team out. In reality, Charlotte will not pose much of a threat. They can certainly upset this Mean Green squad, but it will be with a lot of help.

Best Case Scenario: North Texas puts up 600+ yards as Tayven Jackson and Jahiem White do what they have done for the last two months. The defense is not challenged by the Charlotte pass game and gives the ball back to the potent offense.

Worst Case Scenario: North Texas is burned by the wide zone and lets Tim Albin’s offense find itself. They broke a 75-yarder last week because of missed fits, and NT is vulnerable to something like that on occasion. The Mean Green offense reverts to its UNLV version, where there were missed opportunities and an over-reliance on Jahiem White. The problem is that he is just coming off of 32 carries and not as fresh.

Prediction and Other Thoughts

I think NT blows this one open 50-10. Charlotte is feeling real awful and will be playing with a little pride to start. The key is to kill that notion quickly and thoroughly. I think Neal Brown knows it — he talked up those coaches and the program — and so he knows what he needs from his guys. This needs to be something like the HCU game, but for the fact that Charlotte presumably has more talent.

I believe that we should see a little more depth in the running back room for this one and a much-needed bye for the squad to recover. This North Texas team is good enough to win the league in its current state, and to do so they will need to win these gimme games.

You cannot win the American in October but you can certainly lose it. Too many talented teams have lost the league with silly losses — I think about Memphis and USF losing with better talent the last couple of seasons — and if Neal Brown wants to achieve what Eric Morris never did? Well that starts with taking care of business on Saturday.